MLB Picks - Thursday, 3/30/23

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Thursday

Orioles +112 (Heritage)
Astros -148 (Heritage)


Happy New Year!

 

[LT Profits]

I will provide one write-up occasionally

Astros -148 (Heritage)
We see some nice value based on 2022 Sabermetric stats opening day when Framber Valdez and the Houston Astros host Dylan Cease and the Chicago White Sox. Some may be inclined to jump on Cease as an underdog given his 2.20 ERA last season, but we see many red flags as he benefited in the “luck” stats with a low .260 BABIP allowed and a ridiculous 82.3% strand rate.

Yes, Cease had an excellent 11.10 Ks/9, but he also issued an hefty 3.92 BBs/9 and had a low 38.8% GB rate, making his BABIP seem even more fluky. All this contributed to a 3.50 xFIP, an alarming 1.30 higher than Cease’s ERA.

Conversely, Valdez had a more legitimate 2.82 ERA given it aligned nicely with his 2.99 xFIP. Valdez did not benefit as much in the luck department either, with a more normal .285 BABIP allowed and 75.7% strand rate.

Looking at projected lineups, FanGraphs projects 8 of the 9 Houston batters to finish with a wRC+ of 100 or better, topped by Yordan Alvarez at an obscene 170 and two others in the 140s. The White Sox lineup is solid offensively with 7 of 9 batters projected at 100+ in wRC+, but they only top out at 130.

 

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Thursday

Orioles +112 (Heritage)
Tigers / Rays OVER 7 +107 (Heritage)
Astros -148 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Dodgers OVER 7.5 +107 (Heritage)

 

[JDS]

I will provide one write-up occasionally

Astros -148 (Heritage)
We see some nice value based on 2022 Sabermetric stats opening day when Framber Valdez and the Houston Astros host Dylan Cease and the Chicago White Sox. Some may be inclined to jump on Cease as an underdog given his 2.20 ERA last season, but we see many red flags as he benefited in the “luck” stats with a low .260 BABIP allowed and a ridiculous 82.3% strand rate.

Yes, Cease had an excellent 11.10 Ks/9, but he also issued an hefty 3.92 BBs/9 and had a low 38.8% GB rate, making his BABIP seem even more fluky. All this contributed to a 3.50 xFIP, an alarming 1.30 higher than Cease’s ERA.

Conversely, Valdez had a more legitimate 2.82 ERA given it aligned nicely with his 2.99 xFIP. Valdez did not benefit as much in the luck department either, with a more normal .285 BABIP allowed and 75.7% strand rate.

Looking at projected lineups, FanGraphs projects 8 of the 9 Houston batters to finish with a wRC+ of 100 or better, topped by Yordan Alvarez at an obscene 170 and two others in the 140s. The White Sox lineup is solid offensively with 7 of 9 batters projected at 100+ in wRC+, but they only top out at 130.

Thank you for this LT !

 

[jjgold]

Tampa will be hard to figure out but they have good pitching

Tail the high payroll teams this year

 

[LT Profits]

5 MLB Plays Thursday

Orioles +112 (Heritage)
Tigers / Rays OVER 7 +107 (Heritage)
Astros -148 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Dodgers OVER 7.5 +107 (Heritage)
Guardians +109 (Heritage)

 

[Wagerallsports]

GL this season

 

[LT Profits]

8 MLB Plays Thursday

Orioles +112 (Heritage)
Brewers / Cubs OVER 7 +102 (Heritage)
Tigers / Rays OVER 7 +107 (Heritage)
Phillies / Rangers UNDER 6.5 +102 (Heritage)
Astros -148 (Heritage)
Angels / Athletics UNDER 7 -103 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Dodgers OVER 7.5 +107 (Heritage)
Guardians +109 (Heritage)

 

[JDS]

Whoa action galore for LT Profits …

 

[BMR Genie]

It feels like a new year's treat, LT! Thank you.

 

[Pimike]

Thanks sir.