MLB Picks - Friday, 5/5/23

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Friday

Marlins +150 (Heritage)
Athletics +135 (Heritage)


YTD: 60-60-5, +1.47

All plays are Listed Pitchers unless ACTION is stated

 

[jjgold]

You’re hanging in there that’s all you want

 

[JDS]

You’re hanging in there that’s all you want

He’s doing just fine early on.

 

[BMR Genie]

Let's get it, LT!

 

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Plays Friday

Marlins +150 (Heritage)
Athletics +135 (Heritage)
Brewers / Giants OVER 8 -103 (Heritage)

 

[slickfazzer]

LT's model showing good progress.

 

[KVB]

lol LT, I wrote this a few minutes back about MIA...

Pinny currently dealing a no vig line here of -147/+147.

I have CHC winning this game with predicted score that can be converted to a win percentage with can then be converted to a moneyline.

I have Cubs winning by .7 runs in about an 8.5 point game. Using a pythgorean method with a custom fit exponent from my office I get the Cubs winning 58.18% of the time with MIA winning the remaining.

These percentages convert to a no-vig line of -135.27/+135.27.

According to these numbers alone, these is value, or at least an overly, on the underdog here.

Those +150s could be attractive, I somehow think the line comes down from any of those, to mthe mid 140's, a little more consistent with my numbers.

 

[jjgold]

KVB you know every angle of every game

 

[KVB]

That’s impossible Gold, besides not every angle matters.

Only the relevant ones do.

That said, the angles that don’t matter can come into play and become relevant; and when they do, it’s usually because the less sophisticated public has an opinion that pushes the market into territory that usually gives us value.

I wonder if that happened in today’s Cubs Miami game.