MLB Picks - Friday, 4/28/23 (1 Analysis)

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Plays Friday

Orioles -120 (Heritage)
Astros -136 (Heritage)
Angels +124 (Heritage)


YTD: 52-50-5, +4.07

All plays are Listed Pitchers unless ACTION is stated

 

[LT Profits]

Orioles -120 (Heritage)

It is another Battle of the Rodriguezes in a pitching rematch from Sunday, and we again look for the rookie Grayson’s Orioles to prevail over the veteran Eduardo and his Tigers.

Rookie of the Year Potential?
Neither starter figured in the decision of Sunday’s pitching duel ending in a 2-1 Orioles win, with Grayson Rodriguez tossing five scoreless innings while allowing five hits and striking out six. Grayson has a 5.12 eyesore for an ERA early on, but he has great upside with his xFIP at 3.38.

Grayson has a live arm resulting in 11.64 Ks/9 in his first taste of the Major Leagues, with the ERA skewed by an unreasonable .380 BABIP allowed. He has a great repertoire with a 96.8 MPH fastball and an effective slider and change-up each in the low 80s. Once the BABIP normalizes, Grayson may merit Rookie of the Year votes by year’s end.

Eduardo a Mirage?
Eduardo Rodriguez outdid his namesake Sunday throwing seven scoreless innings allowing only one hit. However, unlike Grayson, Eduardo’s underlying metrics point to an expected negative regression with a 2.32 ERA and 3.80 xFIP

That ERA is greatly aided by a .220 BABIP allowed and an 82.6% strand rate. Also, Eduardo is no longer the strikeout pitcher he once was, as while his career K/9 is still an excellent 9.10, it took a huge dip from 10.56 in 2021 to 7.12 last year, and now stands at 7.26 in this, his 30-year-old season.

With regression in opposite directions expected, back young Grayson and the Orioles at a reasonable price.

 

[LT Profits]

5 MLB Plays Friday

Orioles -120 (Heritage)
Guardians -118 (Heritage)
Rays / White Sox OVER 8.5 -108 (Heritage)
Astros -136 (Heritage)
Angels +124 (Heritage)