MLB Games I like Today Apr 27th

[Tanko]

3-1 +1.78 Tuesday
13-9 +2.44 since Apr 18th

Only 1 play on the early games....

Dodgers/D-Backs FF U4 -110
Two good pitchers that go 5 innings. In each of their last two games these pitchers have only given up 1 ER apiece. Dodgers bats are good but Gallen can slow them down. His two starts were against the awesome hitting Mets (he only gave up 1 ER in 4 & 5 innings work).

STL ML looks enticing. It opened at +105 and jumped to +112 before settling recently at +102. I like Matz today in the matchup. But I'm not committing.


I see a few more games I like but will report out later in the afternoon.
Good luck

 

[Florida Fever]

Thank you.

 

[carolinakid]

gl with your wed action sir

 

[BobbyFK]

Good luck and thanks for the insight into the game

 

[Tanko]

Thanks Guys.
Hit all your plays today.

 

[Bubbles]

tailing and thanks tanko.

 

[KingKolzig]

carrasco looks good. mets 14-5

took them -1.5 +145


bottom of st.louis lineup is struggling

 

[Tanko]

Damn. Should jumped on the Cardinals like I mentioned. CK is hitting them big. Looks like they will be a winner today.

 

[Bubbles]

Damn. Should jumped on the Cardinals like I mentioned. CK is hitting them big. Looks like they will be a winner today.

while i took the nym -114. already had my bet before seeing ck's post.

 

[Tanko]

San Diego FF ML -0.5 -115 vs Cincy 6:40 ET
I've written about these teams often. Cincy is just the worst team in MLB at this point. The worst batting and 2nd worst relief pitching. I think they may come up on my radar every day when the odds are <-175 for their opponents. Starting pitchers Gore (Padres- 2 starts, avg 5 innings, 1.74 ERA, 5k, 2 BB) vs Guterrez (Reds - 3 starts, avg 4 innings, 5.54 REA, 3k, 3 BB). Clearly, Gore is pitching much better than Guterrez.

Both of these pitchers faced the same team in their last starts. Gore went 5 innings, 0 ER, 4 H, 7 K, 2 BB and the Padres won 6-0. Guterrez went 4.2 innings, 3 ER, 2 H, 2, K, 4 BB. What's going to change this time??? I don't expect much.

SD bats are much better than Cincy. WRC+ 109 vs 59, OPS 0.700 vs 0.551, AVG 0.234 vs 0.188. I will say, the Reds surprisingly came through with 6 runs last night against the Padres. This tied their highest score in a game since April 10th and tied the highest of the year. They lost 9-6.

I'm taking FF so I don't have to depend upon the Padres relief pitching to seal the deal. They can easily do it but I like the odds on the FF -0.5 with Gore pitching.

 

[Tanko]

Dodgers/D-backs FF under 4 was a winner. 1-0 D-backs after 5.
Hope we continue the good start.

 

[uh_uh_eugine]

gd job, bro

 

[KingKolzig]

carrasco sure fooled me with those 3 good starts

 

[Tanko]

Miami -138 vs Wash Nats
Starting pitching is Lopez (MIA) vs Fedde (WAS).
Lopez has been outstanding (0.52 ERA, over 3 games --> 17 total innings, 17 K, 3 BB, 1 ER). He's been getting better over that span. Fedde has been "human" (6.75 ERA, over 3 games --> 13 innings, 14 K, 5 BB, 10 ER) and was not very strong vs D-backs in his last start.

Marlins have the better bats. WRC+ 112 vs 81, OPS 0.710 vs 0.619, AVG 0.242 vs 0.226. Finally, the Marlins relief pitchers are slightly better as well. 3.32 ERA vs 3.92. The Marlins bullpen has not been abused lately so they are fresh. Meanwhile the Nats bullpen has been used quite a bit.

Momentum is all on the Marlins with 3 game win streak while the Nats are on a 6 game losing streak. Nats haven't scored more than 3 runs in their last 7 games. Marlins have scored 5 or more in 5 of their last 7.

Pay the juice and take the Marlins.

 

[Tanko]

carrasco sure fooled me with those 3 good starts

I thought the same and it made me hesitate (dumb move) on the play. Matz was great in his last two starts. Throw out his opener, in which he stunk and he's is doing fantastic.

 

[Tanko]

I actually had a write up picking the Cardinals but I deleted it and didn't pull the trigger.

 

[RudyRuder]

Nice writeups chief

I actually had a write up picking the Cardinals but I deleted it and didn't pull the trigger.

Those always seem to win

 

[Tanko]

Thanks Rudy. Just doing brain dumps on plays I like and bet.

 

[Tanko]

NY Yankees FF ML -0.5 -135 vs Baltimore Orioles

Does anyone else feel a little bit of pity for Tyler Wells (BAL - 6.75 ERA)? 2nd year pitcher with 100% of time spent as relief pitcher in 2021. Guy must feel like he is being fed to the wolves tonight at Yankee stadium. He actually did very well against the Yankees in Baltimore on April 16th. But, he's going up against Montgomery (NYY 2.51 ERA, over 3 starts). I don't think he can count on much run support. Maybe the Yankee fans will be nice.

NY bats are stout (WRC+ 117, OPS 0.728, AVG 0.239) and Baltimore not so much (WRC+83, OPS 0.606, AVG 0.211).

Baltimore has decent relief pitching (likely why they moved Wells to Starter this year) so don't expect much from the Yankees after Wells is pulled. They may score later in the game but the Orioles bullpen isn't a pushover. Also, Yankees are on a little roll with 4 game win streak.

I am not paying ML -240 for the game. I like Montgomery vs Wells and the addition of NYY bats for the first five. The odds are more reasonable and actually provide a little edge IMO with the startnig pitcher matchups

In their prior 4 matchups, the Yankess are 3-0-1 over the first five innings.

 

[Tanko]

Thats it for today in MLB.
Good luck everyone.