1-0-1 + 1.00 Monday
34-23 +8.09 Season
2 plays on this game....
Milwaukee RL -1.5 -120 vs Cincy 6:40 ET
Milwaukee FF RL -0.5 -125
Its tough to make a play against Rudy's favorite team, especially since they are on a roll (2 wins in a row). Also, the Brewers seem to be my new achilles heel when betting so this is a stretch.
Peralta (MIL) has a high ERA (5.09) but that is the result of 1 very bad outing in mid April when he gave up 6 runs in 3 innnings. Since then, he's been pretty good. His last outing was against these Reds and he faces Greene (CIN) who's last outing was against the Brewers (a very bad outing). Here are the stat lines from those games.
Peralta: 5 innings, 3ER, 5H, 3BB, 7K (Peralta actually pitched better against the Reds in 2 outings last year).
Greene: 2.2 innings, 8 ER, 9H, 1BB, 7K
Excluding the disaster that was Greene's last outing, he is still consistently average/poor in performance.
Batting favors the Brewers on paper. Cincy bats have come to life in the last week but 3 of those games were against the Pirates pitching. I think it provided them with some confidence building and are batting on adrenaline. Brewers bats haven't been too bad either lately. Milwaukee is #1 in MLB over last 10 days while Cincy, with their hot bats of late are mid-pack over the same period.
Relief pitching slightly favors the Brewers. The only decent reliever the Reds have rested up is Hoffman. Brewers can counter with Hader, Williams, Gott. All good relievers.
The Brewer ML is just too expensive at -184 so I see leveraging the RL's in this game. I like the FF since in their prior 4 meetings the Brewers have carried the FF innings 3x. They failed on the FF last night due to the 5 run Reds bottom of the 5th inning.
Good luck today.
34-23 +8.09 Season
2 plays on this game....
Milwaukee RL -1.5 -120 vs Cincy 6:40 ET
Milwaukee FF RL -0.5 -125
Its tough to make a play against Rudy's favorite team, especially since they are on a roll (2 wins in a row). Also, the Brewers seem to be my new achilles heel when betting so this is a stretch.
Peralta (MIL) has a high ERA (5.09) but that is the result of 1 very bad outing in mid April when he gave up 6 runs in 3 innnings. Since then, he's been pretty good. His last outing was against these Reds and he faces Greene (CIN) who's last outing was against the Brewers (a very bad outing). Here are the stat lines from those games.
Peralta: 5 innings, 3ER, 5H, 3BB, 7K (Peralta actually pitched better against the Reds in 2 outings last year).
Greene: 2.2 innings, 8 ER, 9H, 1BB, 7K
Excluding the disaster that was Greene's last outing, he is still consistently average/poor in performance.
Batting favors the Brewers on paper. Cincy bats have come to life in the last week but 3 of those games were against the Pirates pitching. I think it provided them with some confidence building and are batting on adrenaline. Brewers bats haven't been too bad either lately. Milwaukee is #1 in MLB over last 10 days while Cincy, with their hot bats of late are mid-pack over the same period.
Relief pitching slightly favors the Brewers. The only decent reliever the Reds have rested up is Hoffman. Brewers can counter with Hader, Williams, Gott. All good relievers.
The Brewer ML is just too expensive at -184 so I see leveraging the RL's in this game. I like the FF since in their prior 4 meetings the Brewers have carried the FF innings 3x. They failed on the FF last night due to the 5 run Reds bottom of the 5th inning.
Good luck today.
