MLB Games I like Apr 30th

[Tanko]

3-2 +1.00 Friday
22-12 +8.44 Season

Cleveland -147 vs Oakland
Bieber (CLE) vs Irvin (OAK). Two good pitchers closely matched in performance. I expect 5-6 innings out of each today. Bieber (2.82 ERA, 4 starts, averaging 5.5 innings, 4 H, 2 ER, 6 K, 1 BB). He did allow 7 H & 3 ER in his last outing vs the Angels but, the Angels are a leading the league in hitting this year. Oakland is around 20th in batting so far this year. Irvin (3.32 ERA, 4 starts, averaging 5+ innings, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 K, 1 BB). He pitched well against the Rangers in his last outing but the Rangers are a poor hitting team. Against better hitting teams (Rays, Phillies) he was lit up a little more (3 & 4 ERs).

I think the advantage today comes from Cleveland’s bats. They are much better than Oakland so far this year. WRC+ 120 vs 93, OPS 0.746 vs 0.639, AVG 0.258 vs 0.219

Cleveland also has better relievers: 3.19 ERA vs 3.60 ERA. I don’t see any overuse of their relievers in recent games so they should be relatively fresh.

Good Luck

 

[Tanko]

Tampa Bay RL -1.5 +105 vs Minnesota

Archer (MIN) vs McClanahan (TB). 3.18 ERA vs 2.4 ERA. The matchup looks closer than I think it is. Archer has 3 starts and had been held to 3-4 innings in each start. McClanahan is up to 6-7 innings in 4 starts. Per 9 innings McClanahan is averaging 13 K vs 8 for Archer and 2 BB vs 4 for Archer. I think the relievers will come in early for MIN and bring their 3.93 ERA. TB bullpen has a 2.28 ERA.

Bats: Both teams hit well but TB is slightly better.
WRC+ 117 vs 105, OPS 0.704 vs 0.678, AVG 0.243 vs 0.224

The -189 is too expensive for this matchup. I’m playing RL -1.5 +105. I think the RL offers more value on this game. Tampa is on a little roll, winning their last 3.

 

[Tanko]

San Diego FF RL -0.5 -115vs Pitt

Manaea (SD 3.47 ERA) was lit up by the Dodgers in his last outing but, it was the Dodgers. Prior to that he was pitching exceptionally well and it was against some good hitting teams (Giants, D-backs). Brubaker (PIT 6.46 ERA) has struggled at times and has only gone more than 4 innings once this season.

Manaea has the edge here but if you think it’s a wash on starting pitchers, SD had better relievers as well. 3.43 ERA vs 4.26 ERA. Suarez (SD) might be a little used up but his ERA is higher than the others in SD bull-pen. Pitt bull-pen has been used quite a bit but they still have Crowe and Bednar fresh and they are the Pirates better relievers (0.63 EA and 0 ERA in 14 and 9 innings respectively). With Brubaker pitching I think PIT will be going to the pen early.

Bats: SD has the edge. WRC+ 120 vs 90, OPS 0.742 vs 0.644, AVG 0.241 vs 0.235

Padres 4-0 and Pirates 0-4 in last 4 games. This seems like a momentum play but all the stats line up for SD to win this game.

With the potential for a couple of good relievers for PIT coming in after Brubaker’s start, I’m leaning towards the RL on FF. The odds are good and I avoid the high juice -161 on the game.

 

[Tanko]

I see a couple more plays for later. Working on write-ups.

Good luck everyone.

 

[Wagerallsports]

GL today my friend

 

[Tanko]

Thanks Wager.
Just trying to have a + day.

 

[RudyRuder]

Are these all 1%?

I need a big time play bro

 

[Tanko]

Yankees RL -1.5 -140 vs Kansas City
Cole (NYY) vs Hernandez (KC)
Cole started off slow this season but appears to have found his groove. That is the assumption for this play. If you don’t think he’s got his rhythm back, skip the play. Hernandez has struggled 6.45 ERA and has given up 3-4 ER in each of his 3 starts pitching 4-5 innings. He is going to give up some runs.

NY bats are great. KC bats are not. WRC+ 124 vs 85, OPS 0.752 vs 0.621, AVG 0.249 vs 0.216.
Relief pitching NY 2.43 vs 4.26 for Royals.

Anyone want to pay -225 for the Yankees? Yeah, I don’t either. Bets odds you’re going to get on this game is the RL -1.5 -140. Steep for a RL bet but with this matchup the odds seem about right.

Yankees on 7 game win streak. That might scare some people off the play but I like momentum if the matchup is right.

 

[Tanko]

3-2 +1.00 Friday
22-12 +8.44 Season

Summary:
Cleveland -147 vs Oakland 4:07 ET
Tampa Bay RL -1.5 +105 vs Minnesota 4:10 ET
San Diego FF RL -0.5 -115vs Pitt 6:35 ET
Yankees RL -1.5 -140 vs Kansas City 7:10 ET

Good luck today everyone.

 

[Tanko]

Are these all 1%?

I need a big time play bro

Yeah 1 unit bets.
If I picked a best bet out of these it would be...

San Diego FF RL -0.5 -115 vs Pitt 6:35 ET

 

[RudyRuder]

commonnnnnn i cant bet against pittsburgh


thats my city man

 

[Tanko]

commonnnnnn i cant bet against pittsburgh


thats my city man

Its a first five bet. Maybe you take Padres FF and Pirates for the game.

 

[vitterd]

Have a good day. Nice write ups.

 

[Enikk]

I like that Pirates live plus runs Rudy. Looks like a good card Tanko. gL!!

 

[Tanko]

Thanks guys. Hope it pans out.

 

[Tanko]

Clev (W) +1 unit
TB (L) -1 unit
SD FF RL (L) -1.15
NYY RL Late

Adding Dodgers RL -1.5 -165

 

[Tanko]

Clev (W) +1 unit
TB (L) -1 unit
SD FF RL (L) -1.15
NYY RL Late (W) +1


Going to be a + or - day depending upon Dodgers outcome.
Dodgers RL -1.5 -165

 

[Tanko]

2-3 -1.80 Friday
24-15 +6.64 Season

Losing day. First one in a few. Hope for better results today.