MLB Games I like Apr 29th

[Tanko]

2-1 +1.0 Thursday
19-10 +7.44

SD Padres -174 vs Pirates 6:30 ET
Darvish's last two outings were very good against good hitting teams (ATL LAD). He pitched 6+ innings, gave up a total of 1 ER, 5 H, 15 K, 4 BB and has an ERA of 4.43. If you exclude his prior start against the Giants who lit him up his ERA is well below 1.00. I expect 6+ innings today. He faces Zach Thompson and his 10.8 ERA. Thompson has been consistent in giving up runs. 3 starts, 10 innings, 12 ER, 9 K, 7 BB. I don't see things changing with the Padres today.

Padres bats are much better than the Pirates (WRC+ 121 vs 93, OPS 0.737 vs 0.648, AVG 0.242 vs 0.232) and they've score the 4th highest number of runs in MLB (91). Pirates are in middle of pack at 68 runs scored. If you look through recent scores for the Padres they are putting up a lot of big numbers. The Pirates, no so much.

Relief pitching. Padres have the statistical edge and are a little more rested than the Pirates. Pirates went through a few pitchers (4) on Wednesday trying to stay close to the Brewers (131 pitch count). It was only a little better on Thursday (4 pitchers - 74 pitch count). Padres pitchers are not nearly as used up over last 2 games with avg 72 pitch count in each game spread over 9 pitchers).

Padres on 3 game win streak. Pirates on 3 game losing streak.

It juicy but I like the Padres

 

[Tanko]

There are quite a few more games I'm seeing for tonight.

 

[carolinakid]

gl with all your friday action sir

 

[Tanko]

Actually got the Padres play at -174 instead of -182. Updating first post.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Get it tank

 

[Tanko]

NY Mets -118 vs Phillies 7:10 ET

I'm going to ride with Megill (NYM) until he shows me he's not going to pitch great. 2.35 ERA over 4 games. A total of 23 innings, 6 ER, 22 K, 3 BB. His worst outing was against the Giants when he gave up 4 ER. Giants are a great batting team so no suprise there.

He faces Aaron Nola (PHI). He's pretty good too (over 4 games, 3.74 ERA, 22 innings, 9 ER, 25 K , 5 BB). These two pitchers have already faced these opponents. Nola didn't have a great outing only going 3 innings vs the Mets on Apr 13th and giving up 3 ER. Megill pitched 5 inings and 0 ER on Apr 12th.

The bats are about even between these teams.
PHI & NYM respectively: WRC+ 120 vs 125, OPS 0.761 vs 0.737, AVG 0.263 vs 0.259

Relief pitching favors the Mets slightly. 3.60 ERA vs 3.94 ERA.
The Phillies have won 4 in a row all against the Rockies.

 

[Tanko]

gl with all your friday action sir

Get it tank

Thanks guys. Just trying to have another + day.

 

[quantumleap]

Actually got the Padres play at -174 instead of -182. Updating first post.

I got it at -174 as well, validating your pick.

 

[lemartinsports]

Mets have this tonight. Waiting for your lean on the cubs hehe if you have one

 

[Tanko]

Chicago vs Milwaukee 8:10 ET
Two great pitchers going today Hendricks (CUB) vs Houser (MIL). 4 & 3 solids starts respectively and 3.98 ERA vs 3.52 ERA. 1 bad outing for Hendricks 2 weeks ago, other than that solid pitching. Houser has been good in all his starts. I see no significant edge either way on the starting pitching.

Bats: Cubs have a clear advantage here. WRC+ 121 vs 78, OPS 0.755 vs 0.608, AVG 0.264 vs 0.208. The cubs are top 4-5 team at the plate. Brewers are bottom 4-5 team. I think this is what will make the difference in the game. Cubs need to turn the hits into runs though. Excluding 1 game, their scoring output has not been stellar.

Cubs have edge on relief pitching (2.81 ERA vs 3.36 ERA) but they have used up some of their relievers in the last two days vs Atlanta. Thompson I doubt can come in since he had a 56 pitch count 2 days ago. Roberts & Effross were in the mid-20 pitch count yesterday. They can pitch but effectiveness declines on consecutive days. Just something to be aware of.

IMO the key for the Cubs is their bats coming through to potentially offset any relief pitching issues. I know they've not scored a ton of runs (excl one game) recently, their data shows they are a very good hitting team.


Couple of other notes:
One of the metrics I look at but do not try to leverage is pythagorean winning % (An old Bill James metric). I like to see if the runs scored & allowed matchup with their record. The Brewers record is 3 games better than expected and the Cubs are 3 games worse than expected. This means the Brewers are not as good a team as their record indicates while the Cubs are a better team than their record indicates. This is the largest delta (6) in expected wins for any matchup I've seen this season. These teams are pretty evenly matched.

Finally, the Cubs at +125 implies a 44% chance of winning the game. I see it closer to 50/50 if not a slight edge to the Cubs. With that edge over the odds, I can't pass up this play.

Good luck

 

[uh_uh_eugine]

Really nice run, Tank.

GL per usual.

 

[Tanko]

NY Yankes RL -1.5 -125 vs KC Royals 8:10 ET
Just on stats here is the comparisons.
Cortes (NYY) 1.15 ERA, 14 K per 9, 2 BB per 9 innings - 3 games all great starts
Bubic (KC) 14.14 ERA, 6 K per 9, 12 BB per 9 innings. - 3 games 2 bad starts, 1 OK start

NYY bating: WRC+ 121, OPS 0.735, AVG 0.244
KC bating: WRC+ 85, OPS 0.618, AVG 0.213

NYY relief pitching: 2.53 ERA
KC relief pitching: 3.28 ERA

Yankees on a 6 game wining streak.

The question with these games is always, are the odds worth it. It -181 Yankees. I like the RL -1.5 -125 a little better to offset the risk. In their last 3 series (DET, CLE, BAL), 9 games total, they have won every game by 2 or more except 1 game that they won by 1 and one game that they lost. I think its safe to say Yankee bats are doing well lately.

 

[Tanko]

It feels like I want to play every game today.

 

[Tanko]

2 team parlay @ +190
Dodgers FF RL -0.5 -140
Giants FF RL -0.5 -140

Games are at 10:10 and 10:15 ET

The Dodgers vs Detroit & the Giants vs Nats games tonight have really big odds that don't favor a ML play for the game. But, all the stats for the Dodgers & Giants line up for a potentially big game by each. The only stat that favors an opponent is Detroit bull-pen over Dodgers bull-pen.

Detroit on 5 game skid.
Wash on a 9 game skid.
I like the negative momentum and the fact they are both on the road.

I trying something a little different and parlay FF RL -0.5 -140 (each for Giants and Dodgers).
Bet is a +194 play. Lets hope for some active bats from these teams tonight.

Good luck.

 

[Tanko]

That'll do it for my plays today.
Hope we have a + day.


Some days its feels good and some days its like:

 

[Tanko]

Summary
SD Padres -174 vs Pirates 6:30 ET
NY Mets -118 vs Phillies 7:10 ET
Chicago Cubs + 125 vs Milwaukee 8:10 ET
NY Yankes RL -1.5 -125 vs KC Royals 8:10 ET

2 team parlay @ +190
Dodgers FF RL -0.5 -140
Giants FF RL -0.5 -140

 

[Tanko]

Padres fell behind 0-2 but get a homer to tie the game in top of the 3rd.
Zach Thompson (PIT) having some control issues.

 

[quantumleap]

Padres fell behind 0-2 but get a homer to tie the game in top of the 3rd.
Zach Thompson (PIT) having some control issues.

Never in doubt.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Awesome night Tanko!

 

[Tanko]

3-2 +1.00 Friday
22-12 +8.44

Another postive day.
Giants let me down on the parlay but they are always a crap shoot.