LT Profits
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- Feb 27, 2023
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If you are looking for some value in 2023 MLB Futures, I went on the mission of comparing MLB season projections at FanGraphs with future odds from BetOnline in pursuit of that value. And while these projections are all from FanGraphs, that is the site that feeds my MLB model for individual games, so these projections are probably not too much different than if I forecasted every single game this season based on current rosters as of Monday, March 6th.
One thing that jumped out at me immediately is these projections are much higher on the Braves and much lower on the Dodgers and Mets than other projections seem to be. Here is my analysis of Division, League and World Series Futures, with the key comparisons being between the implied BOL percentage with the model percentage in each of those three markets:
Formula for World Series variance is World Series % - BOL WS Implied%
Formula for Pennant variance is Pennant % - BOL Pen Implied%
Formula for Division variance is Win Division % - BOL Div Implied%
In all cases, positive result = positive value
If we use a 3% variance threshold for the future markets, the current value would lie with the following:
WORLD SERIES
Atlanta Braves +900 (4.8% Var) (14.8% projected - 10.0% BOL implied)
AL PENNANT
New York Yankees +375 (3.4% Var)
Toronto Blue Jays +800 (3.1% Var)
NL PENNANT
Atlanta Braves +550 (11.7% Var)
NL EAST DIVISION
Atlanta Braves +135 (12.6% Var)
NL WEST DIVISION
San Diego Padres +100 (12.2% Var)
One thing that jumped out at me immediately is these projections are much higher on the Braves and much lower on the Dodgers and Mets than other projections seem to be. Here is my analysis of Division, League and World Series Futures, with the key comparisons being between the implied BOL percentage with the model percentage in each of those three markets:
| AL EAST | ||||||||||||
| Team | Proj W | Proj L | Proj W% | Win Div | BOL Div Odds | BOL Div Imp | Pennant | BOL Pen Odds | BOL Pen Imp | World Series | BOL WS Odds | BOL WS Imp |
| Yankees | 90.2 | 71.8 | 0.557 | 45.7% | 105 | 48.8% | 24.5% | 375 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 650 | 13.3% |
| Blue Jays | 87.4 | 74.6 | 0.540 | 25.9% | 220 | 31.3% | 14.2% | 800 | 11.1% | 6.4% | 1400 | 6.7% |
| Rays | 86.7 | 75.3 | 0.535 | 22.2% | 325 | 23.5% | 11.9% | 850 | 10.5% | 5.4% | 2000 | 4.8% |
| Red Sox | 80.7 | 81.3 | 0.498 | 5.3% | 1600 | 5.9% | 2.4% | 1800 | 5.3% | 1.1% | 4000 | 2.4% |
| Orioles | 74.9 | 87.1 | 0.463 | 0.9% | 1600 | 5.9% | 0.4% | 2200 | 4.3% | 0.2% | 6600 | 1.5% |
| AL CENTRAL | ||||||||||||
| Team | Proj W | Proj L | Proj W% | Win Div | BOL Div Odds | BOL Div Imp | Pennant | BOL Pen Odds | BOL Pen Imp | World Series | BOL WS Odds | BOL WS Imp |
| Guardians | 83.1 | 78.9 | 0.513 | 41.2% | 145 | 40.8% | 5.8% | 1100 | 8.3% | 2.6% | 2200 | 4.3% |
| Twins | 82.1 | 79.9 | 0.507 | 34.1% | 180 | 35.7% | 4.2% | 1400 | 6.7% | 1.9% | 3300 | 2.9% |
| White Sox | 79.5 | 82.5 | 0.490 | 20.1% | 235 | 29.9% | 2.0% | 1600 | 5.9% | 0.9% | 3300 | 2.9% |
| Royals | 72.0 | 90.0 | 0.444 | 2.9% | 2500 | 3.8% | 0.2% | 7500 | 1.3% | 0.1% | 15000 | 0.7% |
| Tigers | 70.6 | 91.4 | 0.436 | 1.8% | 2000 | 4.8% | 0.0% | 6600 | 1.5% | 0.0% | 12500 | 0.8% |
| AL WEST | ||||||||||||
| Team | Proj W | Proj L | Proj W% | Win Div | BOL Div Odds | BOL Div Imp | Pennant | BOL Pen Odds | BOL Pen Imp | World Series | BOL WS Odds | BOL WS Imp |
| Astros | 89.5 | 72.5 | 0.553 | 56.6% | -210 | 67.7% | 20.6% | 300 | 25.0% | 9.3% | 600 | 14.3% |
| Mariners | 83.5 | 78.5 | 0.515 | 17.5% | 310 | 24.4% | 6.0% | 1000 | 9.1% | 2.7% | 2200 | 4.3% |
| Angels | 82.5 | 79.5 | 0.509 | 13.7% | 850 | 10.5% | 4.0% | 2200 | 4.3% | 1.8% | 4500 | 2.2% |
| Rangers | 81.7 | 80.3 | 0.504 | 12.0% | 750 | 11.8% | 3.8% | 1800 | 5.3% | 1.7% | 4000 | 2.4% |
| Athletics | 67.9 | 94.1 | 0.419 | 0.2% | 8000 | 1.2% | 0.0% | 15000 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 30000 | 0.3% |
| NL EAST | ||||||||||||
| Team | Proj W | Proj L | Proj W% | Win Div | BOL Div Odds | BOL Div Imp | Pennant | BOL Pen Odds | BOL Pen Imp | World Series | BOL WS Odds | BOL WS Imp |
| Braves | 94.5 | 67.5 | 0.583 | 55.2% | 135 | 42.6% | 27.1% | 550 | 15.4% | 14.8% | 900 | 10.0% |
| Mets | 91.6 | 70.4 | 0.565 | 32.9% | 125 | 44.4% | 17.0% | 350 | 22.2% | 9.3% | 800 | 11.1% |
| Phillies | 86.3 | 75.7 | 0.533 | 10.3% | 325 | 23.5% | 5.7% | 700 | 12.5% | 3.1% | 1600 | 5.9% |
| Marlins | 80.0 | 82.0 | 0.494 | 1.6% | 2500 | 3.8% | 1.1% | 4000 | 2.4% | 0.6% | 10000 | 1.0% |
| Nationals | 66.1 | 95.9 | 0.408 | 0.0% | 10000 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 15000 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 30000 | 0.3% |
| NL CENTRAL | ||||||||||||
| Team | Proj W | Proj L | Proj W% | Win Div | BOL Div Odds | BOL Div Imp | Pennant | BOL Pen Odds | BOL Pen Imp | World Series | BOL WS Odds | BOL WS Imp |
| Cardinals | 88.2 | 73.8 | 0.545 | 57.0% | -130 | 56.5% | 9.1% | 1200 | 7.7% | 5.0% | 2800 | 3.4% |
| Brewers | 85.8 | 76.2 | 0.530 | 37.3% | 175 | 36.4% | 5.5% | 2000 | 4.8% | 3.0% | 6600 | 1.5% |
| Cubs | 76.2 | 85.8 | 0.470 | 3.8% | 450 | 18.2% | 0.2% | 3300 | 2.9% | 0.1% | 6600 | 1.5% |
| Pirates | 73.6 | 88.4 | 0.454 | 1.6% | 5000 | 2.0% | 0.0% | 10000 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 20000 | 0.5% |
| Reds | 68.3 | 93.7 | 0.422 | 0.3% | 5000 | 2.0% | 0.0% | 12500 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 25000 | 0.4% |
| NL WEST | ||||||||||||
| Team | Proj W | Proj L | Proj W% | Win Div | BOL Div Odds | BOL Div Imp | Pennant | BOL Pen Odds | BOL Pen Imp | World Series | BOL WS Odds | BOL WS Imp |
| Padres | 92.7 | 69.3 | 0.572 | 62.2% | 100 | 50.0% | 21.8% | 400 | 20.0% | 11.9% | 750 | 11.8% |
| Dodgers | 87.6 | 74.4 | 0.541 | 24.5% | 100 | 50.0% | 8.6% | 400 | 20.0% | 4.7% | 850 | 10.5% |
| Giants | 84.2 | 77.8 | 0.520 | 11.2% | 800 | 11.1% | 3.5% | 1600 | 5.9% | 1.9% | 5000 | 2.0% |
| Diamondbacks | 77.9 | 84.1 | 0.481 | 2.1% | 3300 | 2.9% | 0.5% | 5000 | 2.0% | 0.3% | 10000 | 1.0% |
| Rockies | 64.6 | 97.4 | 0.399 | 0.0% | 6600 | 1.5% | 0.0% | 5000 | 2.0% | 0.0% | 12500 | 0.8% |
Formula for World Series variance is World Series % - BOL WS Implied%
Formula for Pennant variance is Pennant % - BOL Pen Implied%
Formula for Division variance is Win Division % - BOL Div Implied%
In all cases, positive result = positive value
If we use a 3% variance threshold for the future markets, the current value would lie with the following:
WORLD SERIES
Atlanta Braves +900 (4.8% Var) (14.8% projected - 10.0% BOL implied)
AL PENNANT
New York Yankees +375 (3.4% Var)
Toronto Blue Jays +800 (3.1% Var)
NL PENNANT
Atlanta Braves +550 (11.7% Var)
NL EAST DIVISION
Atlanta Braves +135 (12.6% Var)
NL WEST DIVISION
San Diego Padres +100 (12.2% Var)
