Might Be Time To Focus On The Over/Under NFL

[phillyflyers]

Seems to me a majority of the games went over.

Might be a time for a change in strategy moving forward.

Books too good with the spread. Sweating out games not good.

Might be better to focus on the offenses and the over/under from here on out.

No more worrying about who wins/loses and spread cover.

We know teams are going to score. Why not take advantage?

Thoughts?

 

[djefferis]

Yesterday under won 7-6

 

[Archie]

novel thought

 

[phillyflyers]

Yesterday under won 7-6

Well we know that's not gonna last.

Listen, most teams didn't even play their starters in the preseason.

First action these guys saw. Teams still in preseason mode.

NFL pushed crazy rules to help fuel offenses at the expense of defense.

They want crazy games. Wouldn't it be smart to take advantage of it?

 

[djefferis]

Lines will adjust too.

I’m surprised there weren’t more unders yesterday.

League wants viewers - no one wants to watch kickers battling it out - booting 55 yarders all game long.

The kickoff change is stupid.

 

[phillyflyers]

Lowest scoring game yesterday was 26 total points.

Would have to think the vast majority of these games are going over sooner or later.

There's too many things working in favour of it.

Ideal football game for me is 3-0, 6-3, 9-6 played in a foot of snow.

 

[djefferis]

NFL wants a domes and passing.

Not 3 yard runs and weather factoring into the game.

There’s a reason why college is much easier to win betting for the average player. More games to study - more variables. NFL is the toughest sport in the world behind soccer to win consistently at.

 

[Archie]

this guy is ahead of the game and books.

will be rich at seasons end

do we take tonight's over?

 

[jjgold]

Unders tonight

 

[MinnesotaFats]

Unders going to be more prevalent.

Lots of black QBs try to scramble instead of getting 'big plays' via pass.

 

[Archie]

longest passing plays of season

Tua 80
Love 70
Hurts 67

 

[MinnesotaFats]

Yes but those are catch & runs as we've seen the highlights.

What I'm referring to is the old Wade Phillips/ Kiffen/ Zimmer philosophy. IE I'd rather let the QB scramble for a first on a broken play than throw it 50 yards.

Remember when Russ was good in Seattle? Cunningham in Minny, Mahomes now...the broken plays turn into 50+ yard gains.

Compare to Fields, Daniels, Williams today or Turbisky, Wentz or Lamar of a few past years, they convert a lot of 1st but not the big TDs you need for the crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

 

[Archie]

broken plays most often result in zero or negative yards a few highlight reel throws none with standing.

first downs are surprisingly good for offense

 

[Archie]

the last 5 years in NFL have been highest scoring 5 year block in NFL history

 

[MinnesotaFats]

the last 5 years in NFL have been highest scoring 5 year block in NFL history

Well yeah because of fukking penalties. Direct correlation to 1st downs by penalty...don't have a stat to cite but would bet the farm on it.

 

[strongcawk]

Seems to me a majority of the games went over.

Might be a time for a change in strategy moving forward.

Books too good NJ under plays weĺwith the spread. Sweating out games not good.

Might be better to focus on the offenses and the over/under from here on out.

No more worrying about who wins/loses and spread cover.

We know teams are going to score. Why not take advantage?

Thoughts?

 

[strongcawk]

Under plays well especially with running clock.. I think NFL was like 16-3 in primtime unders last year. Clock moves at furious pace plus public money.

Under easy play each Primetime game (Sunday, Monday, Thursday) is an easy winner.

 

[phillyflyers]

Tonight went over.

Offenses have had too much help from the league.

Can't even touch the QB anymore. Can't run on kickoffs until the ball is touched. Penalties, refs involved constantly.

Defenses are at such a disadvantage anymore.

51 points scored tonight and the Jets had only 13 points at the end of the 3rd/beginning of the 4th.

Game was looking unders for a while. Then what happened?

Crazy, crazy shit.

McCaffrey didn't play too.

 

[MinnesotaFats]

There's no excuse for the MVP being out & SF running for 150 fukking yards & multiple TDs.

Game should have been 24-20 either way

 

[phillyflyers]

There's no excuse for the MVP being out & SF running for 150 fukking yards & multiple TDs.

Game should have been 24-20 either way

The league wants it like that.

League wants every game 50-42.

Ratings=money.

NFL cut a check to every owner this past year for $400 million.

They're going to keep going in this direction.