Michigan #20 (3-0) vs Arizona St (3-1) 9:30 PM EST (ESPN 2)
Michigan is favored by -7.5 points and the over/under is 142 points
I subscribe to a site that offers information on Michigan basketball and the guy that owns the site does a nice job offering previews and information on Michigan basketball so I thought I'd share it with all of you.
Michigan was guaranteed to play a revenge game in Brooklyn. We know now that it’ll be the spicier option after Arizona State (“9:00 p.m.”, ESPN2) and Frankie Collins knocked off VCU late on Wednesday.
Eight months ago, Collins was helping Michigan to a few crucial NCAA Tournament wins. Now, he’ll be lining up across the court from his old teammates with something to prove. It’s safe to say the date has been circled on his calendar for a while.
Collins is the primary offensive option in Tempe this year and doesn’t have an overly impressive supporting cast. Arizona State is 3-1 on the season with an overtime loss at Texas Southern and needed a late comeback to knock off VCU (without its best player) on Wednesday night. The Sun Devils are without 6-foot-8 forward Marcus Bagley this week, and Collins is averaging just shy of 13 shot attempts per game this year.
The revenge game angle isn’t just a subplot, this game is likely to come down to how Frankie Collins fares against his old team.
They are shooting 44% on twos (277th) and 29.4% on threes (238th) for a 44% eFG% (279th). They also turn the ball over on 21 percent of their offensive possessions (249th). Those are ugly top-line offensive numbers for a team that has only played one of its four games against a top-200 opponent.
Arizona State plays fast on offense (ranked 59th in average offensive possession length) and manages to create extra points with offensive rebounding (104th) and by getting to the line (45th). Despite attempting 43.4 free throws per 100 shot attempts, the Sun Devils shoot just 66.7% at the stripe (230th).
There’s just not much to get excited about this group offensively, especially when you consider that Bobby Hurley’s last team was even worse on the offensive end of the floor. Schematically, the ASU attack prioritizes high ball screens, but it isn’t necessarily a proficient ball screen offense. Arizona State is ranked in the 90th percentile in ball screen volume (including passes) and the 11th percentile in ball screen efficiency, per Synergy.
Defensively, the Sun Devils have terrific positional length. They check in at 35th in adjusted defensive efficiency and have three key rotation players who are nationally ranked in block rate. Teams are shooting 45% on twos (93rd) and 25.6% on threes (60th) for a 42.6 eFG% (60th) against the Sun Devils. ASU also forces turnovers on 21.4% of possessions (101st).
Michigan fans know how effective Frankie Collins was as a point-of-attack defender. That on-ball defense combined with length on the wings makes it easy to believe in what the early-season numbers are saying about Hurley’s defense. The Sun Devils have been great at defending ball screens (77th percentile) and will also extend full-court pressure on around 12% of defensive possessions.
Collins has stepped into an alpha role at ASU where he dominates the ball to mixed results. He’s using 29 percent of possessions but has just a 91.2 ORtg. He’s shooting 46% on twos and 31% on threes, with a 35.5% assist rate but an elevated 25.7% turnover rate.
When Collins is on the floor, it is his show. He controls the game with his dribble and is the most reliable creator on the roster. To his credit, his shot does look significantly better than it did a year ago, but he’s still an inefficient offensive option leading an inefficient offense.
6-foot-1 junior DJ Horne is the primary volume shooter on the roster. He gets up a lot of threes (23 in four games) but is shooting 30% on the year from outside. As always, the volume is the threat here and Michigan will have to guard Horne as a shooter and try to take away his catch-and-shoot attempts.
6-foot-6 wing Devan Cambridge and his 6-foot-4 brother Desmond Cambridge started the last game on the wings. Devan, an Auburn transfer, is a career 29% 3-point shooter but he’s 5-of-12 (42%) to start this season. He’s also shooting just 25% insdie the arc and 55% at the free-throw line this year but is athletic and aggressive on the offensive glass.
Desmond (who had previous stops at Nevada and Brown) is the better perimeter shooter for his career (34% on over 800 attempts) but is 0-of-10 from deep to start this season.
6-foot-2 freshman Austin Nunez made some key plays late against VCU and has seen his role expand already this season. Nunez is a top-100 recruit and the combo guard is shooting 56% on twos and 56% on threes through four games. I’d imagine he continues to get more minutes based on his recent showings.
6-foot-9 senior Alonzo Gaffney is a long and skinny glue guy who makes a defensive impact (4 steals and 3 blocks this year), but he’s just 2-of-9 from the floor with 6 turnovers for the year. Another Ohio State transfer, Luther Muhammad, has seen his career go in reverse since arriving at ASU. Muhammad was a two-year starter at OSU but played just 47% of minutes last year and 29% of minutes this year. He’s 4-of-13 from the floor, including 0-of-3 from three this year, and shot 19% from deep last season.
7-footer Warren Washington starts at the five spot after previous stops at Nevada and Oregon State. Washington is a big-time shot blocker (59th nationally in block rate) and offensive rebounder (215th). He shoots 60% on twos and gets the occasional post-up touch (about one or two per game) but is much more of a catch-and-finish big man. Washington has fouled out twice this season (including in 13 minutes against Tarleton State) and usually plays around 22-25 minutes per game.
While Washington has the length to challenge Dickinson around the rim, he’s only listed at 225 pounds and isn’t exactly a Big Ten bruiser. His reserves aren’t either.
6-foot-10 235-pound freshman Duke Brennan provided a big spark off the bench late against VCU with 5 points, 3 rebounds and a block in 10 minutes. His role is expanded with Bagley out and with former five-star recruit Enoch Boakye struggling (and reportedly under the weather on Wednesday night).
Michigan is favored by -7.5 points and the over/under is 142 points
I subscribe to a site that offers information on Michigan basketball and the guy that owns the site does a nice job offering previews and information on Michigan basketball so I thought I'd share it with all of you.
Michigan was guaranteed to play a revenge game in Brooklyn. We know now that it’ll be the spicier option after Arizona State (“9:00 p.m.”, ESPN2) and Frankie Collins knocked off VCU late on Wednesday.
Eight months ago, Collins was helping Michigan to a few crucial NCAA Tournament wins. Now, he’ll be lining up across the court from his old teammates with something to prove. It’s safe to say the date has been circled on his calendar for a while.
Collins is the primary offensive option in Tempe this year and doesn’t have an overly impressive supporting cast. Arizona State is 3-1 on the season with an overtime loss at Texas Southern and needed a late comeback to knock off VCU (without its best player) on Wednesday night. The Sun Devils are without 6-foot-8 forward Marcus Bagley this week, and Collins is averaging just shy of 13 shot attempts per game this year.
The revenge game angle isn’t just a subplot, this game is likely to come down to how Frankie Collins fares against his old team.
THE SUN DEVILS
Arizona State is offensively challenged, to put it gently. The Sun Devils are ranked 153rd in offensive efficiency through four games.They are shooting 44% on twos (277th) and 29.4% on threes (238th) for a 44% eFG% (279th). They also turn the ball over on 21 percent of their offensive possessions (249th). Those are ugly top-line offensive numbers for a team that has only played one of its four games against a top-200 opponent.
Arizona State plays fast on offense (ranked 59th in average offensive possession length) and manages to create extra points with offensive rebounding (104th) and by getting to the line (45th). Despite attempting 43.4 free throws per 100 shot attempts, the Sun Devils shoot just 66.7% at the stripe (230th).
There’s just not much to get excited about this group offensively, especially when you consider that Bobby Hurley’s last team was even worse on the offensive end of the floor. Schematically, the ASU attack prioritizes high ball screens, but it isn’t necessarily a proficient ball screen offense. Arizona State is ranked in the 90th percentile in ball screen volume (including passes) and the 11th percentile in ball screen efficiency, per Synergy.
Defensively, the Sun Devils have terrific positional length. They check in at 35th in adjusted defensive efficiency and have three key rotation players who are nationally ranked in block rate. Teams are shooting 45% on twos (93rd) and 25.6% on threes (60th) for a 42.6 eFG% (60th) against the Sun Devils. ASU also forces turnovers on 21.4% of possessions (101st).
Michigan fans know how effective Frankie Collins was as a point-of-attack defender. That on-ball defense combined with length on the wings makes it easy to believe in what the early-season numbers are saying about Hurley’s defense. The Sun Devils have been great at defending ball screens (77th percentile) and will also extend full-court pressure on around 12% of defensive possessions.
PERSONNEL
The first name on the scouting report is naturally former Michigan point guard Frankie Collins.Collins has stepped into an alpha role at ASU where he dominates the ball to mixed results. He’s using 29 percent of possessions but has just a 91.2 ORtg. He’s shooting 46% on twos and 31% on threes, with a 35.5% assist rate but an elevated 25.7% turnover rate.
When Collins is on the floor, it is his show. He controls the game with his dribble and is the most reliable creator on the roster. To his credit, his shot does look significantly better than it did a year ago, but he’s still an inefficient offensive option leading an inefficient offense.
6-foot-1 junior DJ Horne is the primary volume shooter on the roster. He gets up a lot of threes (23 in four games) but is shooting 30% on the year from outside. As always, the volume is the threat here and Michigan will have to guard Horne as a shooter and try to take away his catch-and-shoot attempts.
6-foot-6 wing Devan Cambridge and his 6-foot-4 brother Desmond Cambridge started the last game on the wings. Devan, an Auburn transfer, is a career 29% 3-point shooter but he’s 5-of-12 (42%) to start this season. He’s also shooting just 25% insdie the arc and 55% at the free-throw line this year but is athletic and aggressive on the offensive glass.
Desmond (who had previous stops at Nevada and Brown) is the better perimeter shooter for his career (34% on over 800 attempts) but is 0-of-10 from deep to start this season.
6-foot-2 freshman Austin Nunez made some key plays late against VCU and has seen his role expand already this season. Nunez is a top-100 recruit and the combo guard is shooting 56% on twos and 56% on threes through four games. I’d imagine he continues to get more minutes based on his recent showings.
6-foot-9 senior Alonzo Gaffney is a long and skinny glue guy who makes a defensive impact (4 steals and 3 blocks this year), but he’s just 2-of-9 from the floor with 6 turnovers for the year. Another Ohio State transfer, Luther Muhammad, has seen his career go in reverse since arriving at ASU. Muhammad was a two-year starter at OSU but played just 47% of minutes last year and 29% of minutes this year. He’s 4-of-13 from the floor, including 0-of-3 from three this year, and shot 19% from deep last season.
7-footer Warren Washington starts at the five spot after previous stops at Nevada and Oregon State. Washington is a big-time shot blocker (59th nationally in block rate) and offensive rebounder (215th). He shoots 60% on twos and gets the occasional post-up touch (about one or two per game) but is much more of a catch-and-finish big man. Washington has fouled out twice this season (including in 13 minutes against Tarleton State) and usually plays around 22-25 minutes per game.
While Washington has the length to challenge Dickinson around the rim, he’s only listed at 225 pounds and isn’t exactly a Big Ten bruiser. His reserves aren’t either.
6-foot-10 235-pound freshman Duke Brennan provided a big spark off the bench late against VCU with 5 points, 3 rebounds and a block in 10 minutes. His role is expanded with Bagley out and with former five-star recruit Enoch Boakye struggling (and reportedly under the weather on Wednesday night).
KEYS
- Ball screen defense: Arizona State doesn’t have an elite ball screen offense, but it has a ball screen offense. It’s not a secret that Michigan’s pick-and-roll defense has been shoddy at best over the last year and change, and this will be a test against a guard who will be chomping at the bit to score early and often. I imagine Michigan will go under most ball screens against Collins, but how that chess match plays out will be the headline feature tonight. Despite Collins shooting it better, he’s just 5-of-19 on jump shots off the dribble — a shot I’d give him all day until he proves he can make more than one in four.
- A real test for the offense: Michigan’s offense has looked terrific this season, but the reality is that the Wolverines have played against three terrible defensive teams. Arizona State will provide a real test for Michigan’s ball screen schemes, the ability to play through Hunter Dickinson and for Michigan’s young wing players like Kobe Bufkin and Jett Howard to create their own scoring opportunities.
- Keep the main thing the main thing: Hunter Dickinson is Michigan’s advantage in this matchup. The Sun Devils have length on the wings to deal with Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin. They have an elite defender at point guard. They don’t have an option that should be able to stop Hunter Dickinson one-on-one on the block. Early-game post touches will result in scoring opportunities and fouls for Arizona State’s foul-prone frontline. A few early baskets will draw in an inevitable double team and open up the floor as we saw on Wednesday night.
BOTTOM LINE
KenPom pegs this one as a 75-68 Michigan win, giving the Wolverines a 75% chance of remaining perfect on the season. If Michigan can play its offensive game, establish Hunter Dickinson, and hit some open shots, it feels unlikely that the Sun Devils have the firepower to keep up.
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