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2023 NFL mock draft: Mel Kiper's first-round predictions for 31 picks
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALWho's ready for another NFL draft with quarterback intrigue at the top? We lost a little bit of that last year, with Kenny Pickett the only passer who went in the first two rounds. Well, as you'll see below in my first mock draft for the 2023 class, there's sure to be plenty of buzz around these signal-callers.
With two rounds of the NFL playoffs down, the order for the top 27 picks is set. It's a little bit different this year because the Dolphins were stripped of their first-round selection for tampering violations, leaving only 31 picks in Round 1. The Bears have the No. 1 pick, while the Texans, Seahawks, Lions and Eagles have two first-rounders. Could we see a trade to the top of the board?
Let's get into my early projections for the first round of April's draft. I'm not going to project any trades here -- it's still a little bit early to assess which teams could move up and what it would take to get there. As I've said before, this is merely an exercise to show you all what I'm thinking three months out from the draft, based on my Big Board rankings and what I'm hearing from execs, scouts and coaches in the league. Everyone is now gearing up for the Senior Bowl next week and the combine in early March.
I'm going to use ESPN's Football Power Index to project pick Nos. 28-31, and that model has the Chiefs beating the Eagles in the Super Bowl. Check out the "SportsCenter Special: Mel Kiper's NFL Mock Draft 1.0" at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN2 on Wednesday, and you can see me and my pal Todd McShay going through all 31 picks.
1. Chicago Bears
Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
I thought long and hard about a trade here, with the Colts, Raiders and Panthers as the top candidates to move up for a quarterback. And if I'm Chicago general manager Ryan Poles and I can move down a few spots, add premium picks and still get my choice of the best defensive prospects, I'd make a deal. It takes two teams to make a trade, however, and that's never a guarantee. For now, let's stick with the Bears keeping this pick.
Chicago's roster needs help from top to bottom, but its defense was particularly dreadful in 2022, ranking last in the league in sacks (20) and points allowed per game (27.2). It has to be D all the way for wherever the Bears make their selection. Carter, an explosive interior pass-rusher and run-stuffer, gets the nod over Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. on my Big Board. He's the best player in this draft, a Day 1 starter in the middle of this defense.
2. Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio StateHouston just fired coach Lovie Smith, and the franchise's clear offseason priority has to be upgrading at the quarterback position. Davis Mills really struggled in his second season as the Texans' offense was among the league's worst in several statistical categories. With two top-12 picks in this draft, they have to get quality starters as they continue their rebuild.
I see Stroud as the best fit here as the Texans could get their pick of the top passers. He's extremely accurate, can make every throw and has excellent touch at every level of the field. I usually don't put much stock into a single game evaluation, but Stroud's performance in the narrow loss to Georgia in the College Football Playoff semifinals showed me something. He was spectacular against an elite defense, carving up the Bulldogs with his arm and using his legs to maneuver the pocket and find receivers. Houston still has several needs, but it should start with Stroud. I have Stroud just barely behind Will Levis (Kentucky) and Bryce Young (Alabama) in my rankings, but Stroud gets the nod here because of how he would fit.
3. Arizona Cardinals
Will Anderson Jr., DE/OLB, AlabamaNew Arizona general manager Monti Ossenfort gets a premium pick to try to improve this roster, and he could luck into a Pro Bowl edge rusher right off the bat. Anderson was a tackle-for-loss machine in college -- he had 54 over the past two seasons -- and dominated offensive tackles in both the run and pass game. He was unblockable at times against SEC competition. For the Cardinals, who are losing the retired J.J. Watt, he could play some outside linebacker and move around the defense to create mismatches. This would be a home run pick for Ossenfort & Co.
4. Indianapolis Colts
Bryce Young, QB, AlabamaThe trades for Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan in back-to-back offseasons didn't work out for general manager Chris Ballard, and now the Colts are starting over -- again -- at quarterback. Don't they have to draft a signal-caller here (if they don't trade up to get their preferred guy)? They have some intriguing talent on their roster, but as we've seen time and time again in the NFL, nothing else matters if they don't have their quarterback.
There's a clear gap after the top three passers in this class, and the Colts don't necessarily have to trade up to get one of them. In this scenario, they could take Young, a quick processor with an elite feel for the pocket and how to move around and locate his target. The 2021 Heisman Trophy winner doesn't have a big frame, which some NFL scouts will downgrade him for because there aren't many starting quarterbacks under 200 pounds. I love his tape, though, and I'd be willing to bet on his talent. Spread out the offense and watch him throw darts to Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce.
5. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN)
Will Levis, QB, KentuckyHere we go -- the third quarterback in the top five picks. Levis is going to be polarizing for the next few months. Turn on his tape, and you're going to see some poor interceptions and questionable decisions. But you're also going to see rockets that should have been caught and tight-window throws that no other passer in this class can make. There will be a general manager in the top 10 who sees Levis' positives over the negatives. He also is ahead of the curve in learning a pro-style offense, because that's what he played in for the Wildcats.
For the Seahawks, do they really think Geno Smith is their long-term answer? If so, they're going to have to pay him before he hits free agency in March. If they franchise tag him, though, they could play him in 2023 as the bridge to Levis, who can take over after some seasoning as the backup. If Seattle gives Smith a big deal, it surely would be happy with Will Anderson Jr. or Jalen Carter here to help a defense that allowed 4.9 yards per carry, which ranked 27th in the league. Along with this pick from Denver that came in the Russell Wilson deal, it also has No. 20 overall to get help on that side of the ball.
6. Detroit Lions (via LAR)
Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas TechThe Lions finished the season with eight wins in their final 10 games, but their explosive offense papered over massive holes on the other side of the ball. They ranked last in the league in yards per play allowed (6.2) and opposing QBR (55.9); they had issues defending the run and the pass. Wilson, the top true defensive end in this class, would help both. He can use his burst at the snap to beat offensive tackles on passing downs or use his 6-foot-6 frame to hold up against the run. An edge-rushing duo of Wilson and Aidan Hutchinson would be formidable, with surprise rookie James Houston working in on obvious passing downs.
Plus, if Detroit plays its cards right, it could use the No. 18 pick on a cornerback -- this is a little too high to take one. And if you're curious about the quarterback position, general manager Brad Holmes likely will take a close look at this class and weigh each passer against veteran Jared Goff, who had a stellar second half of the season. (This pick is from the Matthew Stafford swap with the Rams.) In this scenario, though, the top three are off the board.
7. Las Vegas Raiders
Peter Skoronski, OT, NorthwesternThe Raiders are a team to watch for a trade up for a quarterback, but they also might prefer a veteran -- Tom Brady? -- over a rookie to take over for Derek Carr in 2023. This is a veteran roster that could compete in the AFC West with the right guy under center. That guy also needs help along the offensive line, though; only left tackle Kolton Miller's starting spot should be guaranteed going forward. Skoronski, who started 33 games at left tackle for the Wildcats, could move to guard or right tackle at the next level. He allowed just one sack in 2022. He'd be an instant starter for a new-look offense.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Myles Murphy, DE, ClemsonThe Falcons had just 21 sacks this season, which ranked 31st in the league, and they were led by Grady Jarrett's six. Veteran edge rusher Lorenzo Carter added four, while rookie second-round pick Arnold Ebiketie had 2.5. No other player had more than two. They have to get better along the front seven. That could start here with Murphy, a complete defender who had 17.5 sacks in three seasons at Clemson. He could even kick inside to tackle on passing downs.
Atlanta is another team with questions at quarterback, as rookie third-rounder Desmond Ridder flashed at times at the end of the season. He's not a lock to be the Week 1 starter, though I expect the organization to do deep evaluations on this draft class and bring in another player to compete with him. For now, however, Murphy is too good to pass up.
9. Carolina Panthers
Anthony Richardson, QB, FloridaLet's get this out of the way now: I wouldn't play Richardson in Year 1. He needs time to develop. He's not an NFL-ready thrower. But he is an awesome talent, a raw quarterback in a 6-foot-4 frame who would be one of the league's most electrifying runners as soon as he steps on the field. His size and physical tools cannot be taught, and NFL coaches will want to work with him and try to take him to the next level. Richardson completed just 53.8% of his passes in 2022 -- he has a long ways to go with his mechanics. Again, though, he has a high ceiling if a coaching staff can help him get there.
In this scenario, the rebuilding Panthers would need to sign a bridge quarterback -- how about bringing back impending free agent Sam Darnold? -- so that Richardson can sit on the sidelines and soak in everything. Carolina still needs a head coach, but it also has extra second-, third- and fifth-round picks from the Christian McCaffrey trade to try to improve this roster.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO)
Calijah Kancey, DT, PittThe Eagles, one of the NFL's four best teams, gained this first-rounder from New Orleans last year, and now they have a chance to add a premium prospect to their loaded roster. They don't have many current needs, but they do have several decisions to make in free agency, including whether to bring back defensive linemen Fletcher Cox, Robert Quinn, Brandon Graham and Javon Hargrave. Let's use this pick to help them get younger.
Kancey's 2022 tape is extremely impressive, and I moved him way up my Big Board. He wreaked havoc the past two seasons, racking up 13.5 sacks when lined up as a defensive tackle, the most in the country. At 6-foot, 280 pounds, he's undersized, but so was former Pitt tackle Aaron Donald. (To be clear, he's not Donald, but he's still pretty good.) We know Philadelphia general manager Howie Roseman invests heavily in the D-line, and Kancey would fit next to 2022 first-rounder Jordan Davis.
