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2024 NFL draft: Scouts on Marvin Harrison Jr. strengths, flaws, team fits
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALToo often NFL scouts and evaluators fall on cliches and lazy terms to describe draft prospects. Phrases like "generational talent" get used too much to put a player on a pedestal and signify he is special in comparison to others at his position. And so we've become immune to it, and in some cases, it causes the masses to push back on a prospect.
Well, when scouts call wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. a generational talent in the 2024 NFL draft class, they mean it.
The Ohio State junior is far and away the consensus WR1 in this class, and he's all the way up at No. 2 overall on my board behind USC quarterback Caleb Williams -- who incidentally is also getting game-changer buzz. In more than a decade of ranking draft prospects, I've never had a receiver that high. After a breakout sophomore 2022 season of 77 catches, 1,263 yards and 14 scores, Harrison has 14 grabs for 304 yards and three touchdowns in 2023. That includes more than 125 yards and at least one TD in two of the Buckeyes' three games this season. He has an elite combination of physical abilities, learned traits and overall potential that will put him in the conversation with greats such as Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green and Julio Jones as one of the best WR prospects we've ever seen.
Don't just take my word for it. Over the past few months, we've talked to more than a dozen NFL scouts, executives, draft evaluators and college coaches to get a feel for Harrison's strengths and weaknesses, and to put some historical context on his pro projection. We also tried to pin down when Harrison will get drafted and which teams could be great fits.
Why are scouts in love with Harrison's skill set?
Ask a handful of evaluators what they love about the 6-foot-4, 215-pound son of an NFL Hall of Famer -- Indianapolis Colts legend Marvin Harrison Sr. -- and you actually don't hear much about his lineage or the fact he's coming from a verified wide receiver factory at Ohio State. Instead, you hear about his drive, work ethic and raw talent."What makes Marvin special as a player is that, on top of his high-end measurables and athletic traits, he's just so incredibly polished and reliable," said an AFC area scout who spent the summer studying Harrison and the rest of this receiver class. "He's going to have his quarterback's unconditional trust from Day 1. Add to that the fact that he's been a great human being, teammate and hard worker ... his odds of success are about as high as they can get."
But of course it's not just the intangibles that scouts are excited about. Harrison has been incredibly productive. He caught 11 passes during his freshman 2021 season while playing behind future first-rounders Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but three of those catches went for touchdowns. In 2022 -- when Wilson and Olave graduated to the NFL, and Smith-Njigba was limited to three games with a nagging hamstring injury -- Harrison finished sixth in the nation in receiving yards (1,263) and fourth in TD catches (14). And he had just three drops over 119 targets.
Harrison grew up with a front-row seat to one of the greatest receivers of all time in his father, and scouts see the instincts and nuances that he learned in his game. Harrison Sr. was Peyton Manning's go-to receiver and had eight straight seasons in the middle of his 13-year career with more than 1,100 yards and double-digit touchdowns. Many of the same traits that allowed his dad to become a Hall of Famer and eight-time Pro Bowler are evident in how he runs routes or attacks the ball in the air.
"What stands out to me is his size and speed and ability to drop his weight," an AFC South evaluator said. "He shouldn't be able to do that at that size. He has route running ability and unbelievable ball skills."
That's what first stood out to me on Harrison's tape, too. It's rare to see a 6-foot-4 wide receiver with the skill set to drop low to snag ground balls or sky high to grab 50-50 passes that are thrown 10 feet in the air. And that presents a serious matchup problem for opposing defenses that our AFC South evaluator pointed out: "Big corners can't handle his route running due to stiffness in their movements, and smaller corners can't handle his size and length. Plus, his ability to catch away from his frame is rare."
Harrison is great in space, but he's not a receiver who only wants to play over the top. In fact, his 24 contested catches since 2022 ties for sixth-most in the FBS during that time frame. For some receivers, we'd worry that a high number of contested catches means they have trouble separating from coverage, but the tape shows Harrison getting open on both breaking and deep routes. Defenders have been outside an arm's length on 88 of his 145 targets since 2022.
Looking for one play to see Harrison's body control, separation and route running all come together? Watch his third touchdown catch against Michigan State last season. Split to the left of the formation by himself, he set the cornerback up with an outside move before faking to the inside and putting a swim move on the unsuspecting cover man to make a leaping, acrobatic goal-line catch on a back-shoulder throw. Burst, sweet feet, control and separation are all there.
Harrison is a technician who has seen 74.5% of his career catches go for a first down or touchdown, even with every defense in the nation scheming to stop him. And since he became a regular player in the Buckeyes' offense last season, he ranks No. 1 in the nation in expected points added on targets (96.9). Harrison's evaluation is the fun mixture of eyeball scouting and analytics; no matter how you look at his game, it's impressive.
OK, but just how good is Harrison in comparison to the greats?
Scouts point back to receivers such as Randy Moss when referencing his ability and potential. So, pretty good. I actually spoke to one NFL general manager who said he was studying Harrison's film and just turned it off."The reality is we won't be drafting high enough to get him," he reasoned.
I've been evaluating receivers since the 2010 draft and have seen some talented players in that time. Guys like A.J. Green, Julio Jones and Ja'Marr Chase. But I'd have Harrison at WR1 as a prospect over that time -- and that's with almost a full season of play and development still ahead of him. That also obviously makes him the top receiver to come out of Ohio State during its recent years of domination at the position, despite that list including elite talents like Michael Thomas, Terry McLaurin, Wilson, Olave and Smith-Njigba.
An NFC general manager said, "He would have been the clear-cut WR1 [in 2023], and you have to go back to Chase to probably make it an argument [for him not being WR1], but he's so much bigger than Chase and isn't coming off a lost season." (Chase sat out the 2020 season due to COVID-19 rules in the lead-up to the 2021 draft.)
A third general manager we talked to goes back even further, saying that Harrison would be his top-ranked receiver since the 2014 draft, a class that featured Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr.
"There just isn't anyone with his size or savviness in a long, long time," he said.
As for comps, my personal favorite is Green, the No. 4 overall pick in the 2011 draft who came out of Georgia at 6-4 and 207 pounds. Like Green, Harrison's ability to glide past defenders and how well he adjusts his body to the ball make him a flawless receiver prospect.
"He looks like Davante Adams did at Year 5 when he had figured the game out," said an NFC receiver coach who watched film of the top college wideouts this summer. "He has elite route running ability, and he separates with speed at 6-4. Even if he only played inside, like JSN did, he would still be a blue-chip prospect."
What about Harrison's floor, the low end of his projection? An AFC East scout suggests, "Worst case, he's Tee Higgins or Amari Cooper. But he's more talented than they are."
Is there anything he can still improve?
Every player can improve. Every player has weaknesses they must work on. That said, Harrison's are minor, according to NFL evaluators. And they might not even show up in the NFL."He doesn't play above the rim consistently and will frame the ball wrong at times, allowing it into his body," said an AFC area scout with over a decade of experience. He added, "If he didn't create so much separation all the time, I would have concerns about traffic catches. But the truth is he won't be in traffic a lot because you can't man him up in coverage!"
We mentioned Harrison's ability in traffic above, and it's worth pointing out that his 42.1% reception rate on contested catches over that time is above the FBS-wide 35% average but outside the top 100 among qualified wide receivers. He has one drop in traffic (against Michigan in 2022), and maybe I'd be more concerned if that number was higher.
There is a failure potential for every player, and Harrison is no different, but it's hard to picture a scenario where he isn't at least a solid NFL starter. Should we look back in three years and find that he has not succeeded in the pros, issues getting consistent separation at his size at the next level could be part of it. The Ohio State scheme affords a ton of space for its receivers, so we'd have to see how that translates for Harrison -- though Buckeyes WRs haven't necessarily struggled there in the pros, and there isn't much concern it'd be any different for Harrison.
An NFC area scout also wondered out loud to me "how fast he really is" but quickly said it also wouldn't matter: "Unless he ran a high 4.5 [in the 40-yard dash] or something, I can't see it affecting his draft stock. His tape is too good."
Where will Harrison ultimately get drafted?
A wide receiver hasn't been drafted No. 1 overall since Keyshawn Johnson was selected there by the New York Jets in 1996 -- and it has happened just one other time since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger (Irving Fryar in 1984). Thanks to the importance of quarterbacks and the expected addition of USC's Caleb Williams in the 2024 draft class, it's unlikely Harrison will join that list.But he could be the first receiver since Calvin Johnson (2007) to be selected No. 2 overall and will definitely at least push Watkins (No. 4, 2014) and Cooper (No. 4, 2015) as the highest wideout drafted in the past decade. No other WR in this class currently has a top-15 grade on my board.
"He'll be a top-three pick," said an NFC general manager. "I could see two quarterbacks [potentially Williams and UNC's Drake Maye] and then him. And if there aren't two good quarterbacks at the top for whatever reason, he would go second."
Multiple scouts and evaluators remarked that the Arizona Cardinals are a likely landing spot for Harrison, given the team's expected poor record (already 0-2) and the fact they have both their own first-round selection and the Houston Texans' pick. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) is projecting those picks to be Nos. 1 and 3. In my preseason mock draft, the Cardinals -- who currently have Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore and Michael Wilson at wide receiver -- took Williams at No. 1 and then used the Houston pick on Harrison (then projected at No. 2) to form an elite young offensive nucleus.
Brown is set to hit free agency after this season, Moore has 99 career catches and just two TDs in his career, and Wilson is a third-round rookie. So it's clear that receiver is a need, especially as the Cardinals rank No. 32 in yards per reception (9.1) since the start of last season.
The Chicago Bears project to have pick Nos. 2 and 4 per ESPN's FPI -- the latter from the Carolina Panthers -- and they desperately need to add help for quarterback Justin Fields. No team has fewer receiving yards from its WR room over the past 19 regular-season games than Chicago (1,811), and the 2023 offense has the league's lowest air yards per target (5.1) and just two touchdown catches through two weeks. Those numbers could still change, but with Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool both hitting free agency after this season, the Bears have to do something. They are another candidate to potentially look quarterback with one of those two picks, too, and pairing a young passer with Harrison makes sense.
Other wild-card possibilities? Pairing Harrison with Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson would give Indianapolis the big-play threat it lacks -- and bring home the son of a team legend. The New York Giants have just 49 plays gaining at least 20 yards since the start of the 2022 season, fewest in the NFL, so they make sense, too. But both might need to move up the board to land Harrison; the Giants are positioned at No. 5, while the Colts are down at No. 9 in ESPN FPI's projected order.
"He goes top five," said an AFC area scout assigned to the Ohio State region. "He would have to sit out the rest of the year in a good draft class to slip past that. But even then ... I don't know that he goes past fifth."
Harrison has earned his billing as a top prospect in the 2024 draft class, should he enter the class. As one source at Ohio State put it, he's as special off the field as he is on it. "His work ethic is unlike anyone I've ever seen before. He spends hours per day catching balls off the Monarc machine."
That drive to be great, coupled with rare body control and concentration, is why Harrison will hear his name called extremely early in the 2024 draft.
