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March Madness betting: Experts give best bets to win NCAA Tournament
LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTIONNow that football season is over, March Madness is the next major event on the sports betting calendar.
Auburn is the +350 favorite and Duke is the 4-1 second choice at the Westgate SuperBook to win the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and there are 16 teams with odds of 40-1 or less.
“You can probably weed it down to about 10 or 12 teams that have a realistic chance to win,” Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons said
Houston is the 7-1 third choice, followed by Florida at 10-1 and Alabama at 12-1. Tennessee and Iowa State are each 16-1, followed by Kansas, Texas Tech and two-time defending national champion UConn at 30-1.
“I don’t think UConn can win this year,” Salmons said. “I don’t think they’re good enough to do it over six games.”
Salmons also isn’t sure whether Duke, led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, will be battle-tested enough to cut down the nets April 7 in San Antonio.
“It’s just hard to really realize how good Duke is because the ACC is so bad this year,” Salmons said. “They have the No. 1 pick in the draft (in Flagg) and two or three lottery picks. Most of their good players are young and that’s always been something that’s never seemingly worked in the tournament.”
No. 1 Auburn, which knocked off No. 2 Alabama 94-85 on the road Saturday, also is the clear +350 favorite over Duke (+415) at Circa Sports.
“Everybody starts with Auburn and it’s probably a fair starting point,” Salmons said. “They’re deep and their coach, Bruce Pearl … no matter where he coaches, he’s got a great team.
“So many of these SEC teams look so good.”
Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone recommends backing a pair of SEC teams — Florida and Texas A&M (45-1) — to win it all.
“First of all, I think up to about a dozen teams could win the whole thing,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “Florida is extremely balanced and can beat you in a number of ways. The Gators’ résumé speaks for itself: They defeated No. 1 Auburn (90-81) and No. 22 Mississippi State (81-68) on the road (last week).”
Salmons said the Gators “seem like a team that has a real shot at it.”
Stone recognizes Texas A&M displays offensive limitations at times, but was largely attracted to the Aggies based on their lofty price.
“At 45-to-1, I believe there’s some value on the Aggies,” he said. “This is a relentless rebounding team that hits the glass as well as any team in the nation.
“Plus, if A&M wins two or three games in the tournament, you’ve potentially got some favorable hedging opportunities with that ticket.”
Here are some other longer shots recommended by Salmons and pro handicappers Brian Edwards and Bruce Marshall:
Texas Tech, 35-1
Salmons made Texas Tech, 35-1 at Circa, his best value bet.
“That team can be a real threat in this tournament,” he said. “You’ve got to defend at a high level, you have to be able to make 3s, and you have to have a coach that really knows what he’s doing. That fills everything for Texas Tech.
“To me, they are a team that has a lot of value. I think they’re real live.”
So does Edwards (MajorWager.com).
“(Coach) Grant McCasland’s team has proven that it’s capable of beating anyone on any given night,” he said. “That was evident in an 82-81 overtime win at Houston when Texas Tech overcame losing its best player, JT Toppin, and coach to ejections less than five minutes into the game.
“McCasland’s squad has an impressive 6-3 record against Quad-1 opponents. In addition to the road win at Houston, Texas Tech has road victories over KenPom top-100 foes like BYU, Cincinnati, Kansas State and Utah.”
KenPom ranks Texas Tech ninth nationally in offensive efficiency.
Missouri, 80-1
“Missouri doesn’t have a shameful loss on its résumé,” Edwards said. “All of its defeats have been Quad-1 setbacks, and (coach) Dennis Gates’ team has four Q1 wins at Florida, at Mississippi State (by 27 points), and at home against Kansas and Ole Miss.”
KenPom ranks Missouri No. 11 nationally in offensive efficiency and No. 41 in defensive efficiency. Three of the Tigers’ losses (to Illinois, Tennessee and Texas A&M) have been by a combined 10 points.
Salmons also has been impressed by Missouri.
“Missouri’s a really good team,” he said. “That program’s really improved. Big time.”
Michigan, 40-1
Creighton, 80-1
If the regionals line up correctly, CBS Sportsline’s Bruce Marshall said he can envision an Alabama-Auburn national title game.
“Imagine the Iron Bowl Final Four version,” he said.
For long shots, Marshall likes Michigan and Creighton.
“Creighton has the big man, (Ryan) Kalkbrenner, who could be a very tough matchup for a lot of teams,” he said. “For Michigan, lots of size among (coach) Dusty May’s many transfers. Intriguing personnel mix.
“If (the) Wolverines start to play again like they did in early January, they will be a team no one wants to face.”
#whenyouknowyouknow. 
