Let's talk sports betting IN GENERAL

[RudyRuder]

1. Easiest sport to cap? Well I think we would all say the one you know the most about and willing to put in time to understand it even more. However, we are talking IN GENERAL.... so I'd guess WNBA due to the low limits and volatility of the lines. I have no interest in learning it though.


2. Hardest sport to cap? I guess baseball? It makes sense with the less juice compared to football or basketball. However, football has the highest limits so maybe it is hardest to cap?

3. The one that you should learn if you don't care? I would say baseball just due to the number of games you can bet on it. You only get 14-20 games per team in college/pro football but can get 162 (USUALLY) in baseball.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Many MLB bettors will argue #1 and #2 are off

 

[RudyRuder]

Many MLB bettors will argue #1 and #2 are off

they cant though

wnba has low limits and lines move a ton with the bets...should be a clear cut easiest sport

for 2....why is the juice lower on mlb if it is easiest???

 

[Tanko]

In general, Rudy gets a lot of the basic points right. Bet on the sport you like.

IMO

1. Easiest - CFB because it is the sport I like the most. I spend 20-30 hours/wk on CFB during the regular season. IN GENERAL. I've heard there is a lot of EV+ plays avail in the WNBA if you put time into it.

2. Hardest - MLB. Its because it's new to me. I just started capping it in 2021 so I have a lot yet to learn. It seems like there are a ton of data points to absorb to find an edge.

3. One to learn for the hell of it - Tennis. I see a lot of people make plays in this sport. There must be money to make.

 

[Bubbles]

I think I'll gonna go with the general answer. Any sports you don't know is the hardest, while every sports that you know is the easiest.

 

[BobbyFK]

It depends. certain sports are easier to cap during certain times. For example during the playoffs NFL lines are sharper than say preseason

 

[slackerdude]

The hardest to win at would be NFL. The hardest to handicap I would think would be horse racing and apparently pretty hard to win at.

 

[Tanko]

The hardest to win at would be NFL. The hardest to handicap I would think would be horse racing and apparently pretty hard to win at.

NFL Lines are sharp, sharp, sharp man.
I find it incredibly hard to find any EV+ plays.

 

[Enikk]

I think we are all wrong. What if we just all have too much info these days and try too hard? Just go back to the basics. Don't bet chalk and the the line seems too good to be true than it probably is. All that info we think gives us an edge and those injury reports. Books have that shit way before we do.

Spouses and kids that don't invest as much time as us degens do just as good if not better when it comes to those NFL pools. Stick to the smaller leagues like Rudy said and go back to the basics. Instead of full game bets, spot bet situations/liv bets/quarters/halfves. Take the "fix" out of the bet.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Agree on the NFL

Which stands for No Freaking Logic League

Hence making it tough to cap

 

[Tanko]

I think we are all wrong. What if we just all have too much info these days and try too hard? Just go back to the basics. Don't bet chalk and the the line seems too good to be true than it probably is. All that info we think gives us an edge and those injury reports. Books have that shit way before we do.

Spouses and kids that don't invest as much time as us degens do just as good if not better when it comes to those NFL pools. Stick to the smaller leagues like Rudy said and go back to the basics. Instead of full game bets, spot bet situations/liv bets/quarters/halfves. Take the "fix" out of the bet.

Too much info... Yes. That can happen and that's when you get back to basics. Whenever I go on tilt its usually from overanalyzing the games. I always go back to my notes on when I was winning. Typically, when I do that, I see that I had started to go down the rabbit hole of too-much-data leading to tilt.

 

[Chip Williams]

Take all sport involving women out of it just for simplicity and do not include props.

1. The more statistically inclined you are and experienced, MLB is easiest.

2. It doesn't matter how sharp anyone thinks they might be, NFL is hardest.

3. NBA totals.

 

[Enikk]

MLB is hardest for most degens because it is daily and the season goes so long. Like Chip said money to be made if you are experienced and pounce spot betting.

 

[Tanko]

MLB is hardest for most degens because it is daily and the season goes so long. Like Chip said money to be made if you are experienced and pounce spot betting.

You are exactly right. I started capping MLB last year. I was "burnt" out by All-Star break and it became tiresome.

I definitely need a lot more experience to get to EV+

 

[Enikk]

You are exactly right. I started capping MLB last year. I was "burnt" out by All-Star break and it became tiresome.

I definitely need a lot more experience to get to EV+

Call yourself privileged to get to the all-star break. You are almost there bud.

 

[MarkyMark]

Research is often written off as already being factored into the line, but the more obscure the sport and situation is that is not always a good assumption.

WNBA, tennis, NFL preseason, props from any sport can be pretty soft if you are motivated and diligent enough. But if you are looking to retire early, you probably can't get enough down playing these without getting creative.

My advice is to take some of your profits and hire at least one data guy and slowly get into bigger markets. The problem with sports betting is most can't get past their own ego and biases.

 

[Enikk]

Research is often written off as already being factored into the line, but the more obscure the sport and situation is that is not always a good assumption.

WNBA, tennis, NFL preseason, props from any sport can be pretty soft if you are motivated and diligent enough. But if you are looking to retire early, you probably can't get enough down playing these without getting creative.

My advice is to take some of your profits and hire at least one data guy and slowly get into bigger markets. The problem with sports betting is most can't get past their own ego and biases.

Great post right here

 

[Tanko]

Research is often written off as already being factored into the line, but the more obscure the sport and situation is that is not always a good assumption.

WNBA, tennis, NFL preseason, props from any sport can be pretty soft if you are motivated and diligent enough. But if you are looking to retire early, you probably can't get enough down playing these without getting creative.

My advice is to take some of your profits and hire at least one data guy and slowly get into bigger markets. The problem with sports betting is most can't get past their own ego and biases.

So many truths written here.
Great Post.