KVB Is This True?

[jjgold]

“Right now, every Pro I know would ONLY bet:”

KC +3-110

Or Buf -2.5-110

When a book tells you "our sharp guys are betting
KC +2.5+100 OR Bills -2.5 -120"

THEY ARE LYING TO U. It simply is not true.
No one sharp would bet EITHER

 

[fishhead]

-140
-2.5 -110
- 3 ev
----------------------------------
My three stakes, nothing great.

 

[Pimike]

Smart guys on Bills ML

 

[KVB]

“Right now, every Pro I know would ONLY bet:”

KC +3-110

Or Buf -2.5-110

When a book tells you "our sharp guys are betting
KC +2.5+100 OR Bills -2.5 -120"

THEY ARE LYING TO U. It simply is not true.
No one sharp would bet EITHER

Let's work it out, Gold.

What is the market tolerating right now?

Pinny has -2.5 (-117)/+2.5 (+104)

When we remove the vig you see the price there is -2.5 (-109.99)/+2.5 (+109.99)

Let's go onshore to draftkings with -2.5 (-120)/+2.5 (+100)

That's a DK no vig line of -2.5 (-109.09)/+2.5 (+109.09)

So the Buffalo -2.5 (-120) is losing 10 cents to the no vig market agreed line. Is the market efficient right now? That's debatable but if sharps were hitting the -120 then the books holding the -120 might have to move on action. And they are holding, it's a stopping point.

Kc +2.5 should be paying closer to +110 and even money (or +104) is clearly a stopping point here. If sharps were hitting the even money it too would have to move.

The market sits just on that edge where action gets stopped. They likely aren't making those bets at those numbers.

------------------

-2.5 (-110) is about at at the vig line and could be a tolerance for some pros, but it's not a lot. They might like -2.5 (-105) to squeeze blood from the turnip. But that level is what keeps -2.5 on the pricier, closer to -120 line.

+3 (-110) would be a pretty good shot here. It's a bit of deal and while I think the line should be closer to -115 the market it reality has tolerated +3 bets closer to +118 and +120 when the vig is involved.

Gold, are you finding +3 (-110) anywhere? Of all 4 bets you listed above, the +3 (-110) is the most likely sharper play in the current market.

 

[KVB]

“Right now, every Pro I know would ONLY bet:”

KC +3-110

Or Buf -2.5-110

When a book tells you "our sharp guys are betting
KC +2.5+100 OR Bills -2.5 -120"

THEY ARE LYING TO U. It simply is not true.
No one sharp would bet EITHER

So basically I'm agreeing with this post, for right now, which are in the first two words of the post. The numbers the guy would buy are right at limits so I get the point.

Also, small mistake, meant a "-" and put a "+" highlighted below...

+3 (-110) would be a pretty good shot here. It's a bit of deal and while I think the line should be closer to -115 the market it reality has tolerated +3 bets closer to +118 and +120 -118 and -120 when the vig is involved.

 

[jjgold]

I don’t think there any threes
KVB you always explain everything perfectly

 

[flyingillini]

I don’t think there any threes
KVB you always explain everything perfectly

Ganch and Justin7 I don't think could compete with the new generation these days. God Bless KVB!

 

[fishhead]

Southpoint still -2.5 -110

Lots of midwest snowbirds in Laughlin

 

[fishhead]

I don’t think there any threes

Books don't want a WASH with the three, hence shops dealing -2.5 -120 or -2.5 -125

 

[fishhead]

Pinny DOWN to -2.5 -108.5 this morning no vig line.

 

[fishhead]

I don’t think there any threes

SOUTHPOINT just went UP to -3 -110

 

[fishhead]

Southpoint still -2.5 -110

SOUTHPOINT just went UP to -3 -110

 

[fishhead]

SOUTHPOINT just went UP to -3 -110

............and back to -2.5

 

[KVB]

SOUTHPOINT just went UP to -3 -110

............and back to -2.5

Yup…

Of all 4 bets you listed above, the +3 (-110) is the most likely sharper play in the current market.

 

[Pimike]

Lol

just play money line

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Buff -3 +102 available at Heritage

 

[KVB]

-2.5 has made it’s way down to (-110) in a few key spots, in Vegas and online onshore.

Is the market dynamic shifting as we enter the last hour of trading?

 

[djefferis]

KC +2.5 +100 YouWager
Several Buffalo -2.5 @-110

I’m staying away from this one - just enjoying the game - line feels way to damn sharp for me - like someone knows something.

My head says Bills - my instinct says stay the hell away from it and don’t give back what I’ve pocketed the past few days. Plenty of opportunities later this coming week.

 

[KVB]

Oh shit, Superbook went low vig dealing -/+2.5 (-105).

I’m looking to counter this KC action.

Not an easy task here.

 

[KVB]

Gold, are you finding +3 (-110) anywhere? Of all 4 bets you listed above, the +3 (-110) is the most likely sharper play in the current market.

That ended up being on the winning side too.