ISU vs Miami

[griff]

The line opened at Miami -2.5 and has stayed at -2 to -2.5. Odds page indicates 95% of the wagers are on Miami. Why is the line not moving is the question I've asked myself. Low volume? Inaccurate percentages? Or are the Oddsmakers wanting/thinking ISU covers?

 

[JDS]

Miami not a deep team, but their starting 5 is solid af, but they are rather small playing 4 guards essentially & they don’t make a ton of 3’s. They can play strong defense if they press & they usually do. ISU plays some D as well I love the under 133.

 

[Enikk]

Both from weak conferences this year that I haven't followed much. Tanko has posted I believe how horrible of an offense ISU has and to bet under in the other match-ups. Maybe it was someone else.

I am staying the hell away from it and maybe see if I can see something for a live bet. gL

 

[griff]

JD - I agree with your analysis of the game BUT why are the books letting themselves be exposed to one side so dramatically? They lose their ass with a Miami cover.

 

[Bubbles]

LSU has beaten really good teams before and I regret not picking them in my bracket.

 

[griff]

Enikk - Big 12 is ranked #1 conference as of today, ACC 7th.

1

Big 12

0.581

Kansas (30-6)

1

7

ACC

0.538

Duke (30-6)

7

 

[JDS]

JD - I agree with your analysis of the game BUT why are the books letting themselves be exposed to one side so dramatically? They lose their ass with a Miami cover.

I have no idea how to answer that sorry.

 

[Tanko]

The line opened at Miami -2.5 and has stayed at -2 to -2.5. Odds page indicates 95% of the wagers are on Miami. Why is the line not moving is the question I've asked myself. Low volume? Inaccurate percentages? Or are the Oddsmakers wanting/thinking ISU covers?

If you are looking at number of bets (95%) and not the $ amounts bet the line may not move. There may not be a lot of money on Miami, just a high number of bets. Books are about $ so if the money is not large, the line won't move.

I also believe the books hedge when they are expecting a lot of money eventually coming in on one side of a line. I've seen ISU lines move closer to the game as "their public" shows up. Books will consider how teams have moved lines closer to game time in the past and possibly hold the line expecting more on ISU's side. I'm not as confident this is the case for this game but, its possible.

 

[Tanko]

Both from weak conferences this year that I haven't followed much. Tanko has posted I believe how horrible of an offense ISU has and to bet under in the other match-ups. Maybe it was someone else.

I am staying the hell away from it and maybe see if I can see something for a live bet. gL

Yeah. I've followed a lot of BIG12 games this year.

ISU is hit/miss type team. Granted they've been a hit in the Tourny but, over the Big12 season it was a crap shoot on if they could win games.

Brockington scores. He is their driver. If no one else shows up (which has occurred often in Jan/Feb), they lose. Their D keeps them in games but they have to score points at some point to win.

NCAA Tourny Game 1 vs LSU - Tyrese Hunter came through with Brockington to generate enough points for them to win along with their D. Tyrese isn't a prolific scorer. His performance in Game 2 vs Wisky shows he can shoot poorly as well. BUT, guess what.... Kalshear came through for ISU in game 2 and w/ just enough from Brockington they won. Kalshear avg 9 pt/gm for season and ~7 pts/gm in Feb. He had 21 vs Wisky.

I hate betting on a crap shoot. I'd love to see ISU win/cover but, I don't want to bet on it because I have not idea if someone will show up to help Brockington score.

 

[griff]

Any reliable way to get $$ volume on each side? I still think that with a 95-5 ratio the money volume is at least 80-20 (my assumption). I didn't consider the ISU public showing up in the next day or so, we'll see but I think this looks trappish as hell.

 

[Enikk]

Enikk - Big 12 is ranked #1 conference as of today, ACC 7th.

1

Big 12

0.581

Kansas (30-6)

1

7

ACC

0.538

Duke (30-6)

7

Actually, I fvcked that one up. Sorry, they do prolly have the best one with the most above average teams this year but do not have that one elite team after the Baylor injuries. I personally don't find this Kansas team as good as others make them out to be. Texas is well coached but 1st year there and Texas tech very experienced. West Va should of been better and Okie lost their best player in transfer. Just saying all that makes me lean ISU as I couldn't say the same for the ACC.

 

[Tanko]

Any reliable way to get $$ volume on each side? I still think that with a 95-5 ratio the money volume is at least 80-20 (my assumption). I didn't consider the ISU public showing up in the next day or so, we'll see but I think this looks trappish as hell.

And there is always that possibility.

 

[carolinakid]

i have a lean on miami and over here

 

[Enikk]

but I think this looks trappish as hell.

At least 3 of them this week do

 

[carolinakid]

imo the over is the best play in this one

 

[griff]

imo the over is the best play in this one

I agree. They get to 137 without OT.

 

[Wagerallsports]

I think it's end of the road for Miami tomorrow night