I agree with you Rudy.
Vandy, when playing opponents of similar strength to Xavier are 4-2 ATS and when they were dogs in those games they are 3-0 ATS. Meanwhile Xavier, when playing opponents similar to Vandy, are 2-3 ATS and were 1-2 ATS as Favs. They actually lost 4 out of those 5 games outright.
I like the play here Vandy +2.5.
The line has moved from +3.5 open so it seems like a lot of people are seeing the same thing.