Is giving a ton of runs on the run line a good idea?

[timmaydatiger]

I'll sometimes like a dog and see a high total in a game and I see how huge it is doing an alternate run line and giving a few runs.

Obviously they'd be a lot harder to hit hence the big plus.


Thoughts?

Also I wasn't sure about giving runs at -1, -2 or -1
5, -2.5.

It seems to be on whole numbers the number is better?

Any help would be much appreciated

 

[Tanko]

I don't typically play alternate run lines in MLB.

I'll play the RL if I see an edge such that the odds look good on the run line vs the ML.
For example today ATL vs Cubs: ATL ML -202 & RL -1.5 -107

ML -202 is pretty steep even if I like the Braves a lot. If you lose a couple of those bets, you'll have to hit well for a several games to recover or get lucky with a dog. So I will typically avoid them.

Now, if a lot of things line up: Starting pitching, batting stats, relief pitching all lean towards ATL and they've shown a propensity to cover by 2 runs (with this starting pitcher), or have been really hot in last couple games with their bats & the Cubs simlarly lose by 2 runs, especially recently, I'll probably consider the RL bet.

If your book offers RL only at -1.5 (typical) you can combine ML and RL bets to get equivalent of RL -1 bet.

 

[timmaydatiger]

Yeah, my books offer some at -3.5 alternate run lines.

I'll see big payouts and just didn't know if they're worth it or not. The spread/juice in these run lines are atrocious making me think giving these extra runs might not be as good of a deal as I think they might be.

Seeing the huge plus looks so attractive

 

[Enikk]

mL is hard enough to beat in baseball. Only use to avoid chalk or bet live and take the plus runs against team with crap bullpen

 

[BobbyFK]

I’d never lay more then -1.5 on the RL

 

[biggins]

I do this at Coors field usually the dog. And like op said when the total is high.

 

[Pimike]

This extra runs are Sucker bets.

can’t win long term betting like that.

 

[rip007]

On very rare occasions should you do lay the 1.5, you lose three at bats on many of these bets

 

[timmaydatiger]

Here's an example: Tomorrow Marlins are -120. -1.5 they're +130 which gives you fifty cents.

But Arizona is +102 to +210 -1.5 which is +108.

Fifty cents compared to a dollar 08.

It just seems like so much more taking the dog and doing the alternate line minus run line.


You guys say it's a losing situation long term. I'm wondering when it looks like a profitable play.

I love the idea of being able to get +210 like that, but I guess the chances of it happening aren't as likely than just taking moneyline bets?

 

[RudyRuder]

The diamondbacks are home bro

As someone said above, so there is a chance they don't bat in bottom 9th where marlins are guaranteed to