If You Lose Your 1st Bet Of Day Chances are a losing or Even day

[jjgold]

High Probability

I know many they quit for day

WALK AWAY

 

[rex]

Brilliant!

Thanks for this advice my Hebrew friend.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Never good starting out in a hole

 

[rex]

Never good starting out in a hole

Said no gopher ever!

 

[Wagerallsports]

Said no gopher ever!

haha true

 

[flyingillini]

Good luck to all

 

[fishhead]

GL GOLD

 

[BMR Genie]

Good luck everyone! Everyone is going to win today, let's claim it.

 

[fiftycint]

ITS usually the opposite for me.If first bet wins I have a bad day....If I lose first 1 or2 more often then not I manage to have ok days.Seems to happen a lot.Last nite was a prime example ....lost 2 7pm games and hit 3 later games.

 

[Tanko]

Come on now JJ. If you see an edge you play it. If it loses, you don't stop looking for the day. If people did that, sportsbooks would be out of business.

 

[maltedhopsfrenzy]

 

[KVB]

Come on now JJ. If you see an edge you play it. If it loses, you don't stop looking for the day. If people did that, sportsbooks would be out of business.

Agreed, that said, there's the concept I've often brought up of "money flow" and my "moneyflow parlays" whereby every capper is different and a capper's day can be somewhat predicted by early results and therefore can be applied to the market as a whole once the market is profiled.

Ever have that day where 4 of your 5 picks in the parlay came in and then there was the last game of the day pending?

How does that last game usually go for the parlay?

We've all been there.

The issue is that the cycle of just one day is arbitrary and we've seen this effect through larger structures, like March Madness or the total of the NFL playoffs.

 

[KVB]

The issue is that the cycle of just one day is arbitrary and we've seen this effect through larger structures, like March Madness or the total of the NFL playoffs.

The largest comebacks, where money was settling one way but there is a history making comeback, in the NFL playoffs have come in the very first, and very last, games.

I maintain that there is a reason for that.

 

[Tanko]

Agreed, that said, there's the concept I've often brought up of "money flow" and my "moneyflow parlays" whereby every capper is different and a capper's day can be somewhat predicted by early results and therefore can be applied to the market as a whole once the market is profiled.

Ever have that day where 4 of your 5 picks in the parlay came in and then there was the last game of the day pending?

How does that last game usually go for the parlay?

We've all been there.

The issue is that the cycle of just one day is arbitrary and we've seen this effect through larger structures, like March Madness or the total of the NFL playoffs.

Are you that much of a parlay player KVB?
I rarely go that route. Sure, I'll do it for fun every now and then but I don't see them as +EV longterm.

 

[KVB]

Are you that much of a parlay player KVB?
I rarely go that route. Sure, I'll do it for fun every now and then but I don't see them as +EV longterm.

Parlay payouts with true odds have the same EV as making individual plays.

The issue is that you will go on longer droughts between wins with bigger parlays, but the math still works out.

I use two picks to limit risk and increase rewards but larger parlays are more meant to show the flow of money through the market and then individual plays are pulled from the parlay.

For example, last March Madness I posted at SBR a moneyflow parlay over like 7 or 8 games and bet those games individually. There was 1 loss, when Miami beat Bama.

You might remember some of my posts about anticipating the spoiler in the parlay. Might have been FlyMe posts.

 

[Tanko]

Parlay payouts with true odds have the same EV as making individual plays.

The issue is that you will go on longer droughts between wins with bigger parlays, but the math still works out.

I use two picks to limit risk and increase rewards but larger parlays are more meant to show the flow of money through the market and then individual plays are pulled from the parlay.

For example, last March Madness I posted at SBR a moneyflow parlay over like 7 or 8 games and bet those games individually. There was 1 loss, when Miami beat Bama.

You might remember some of my posts about anticipating the spoiler in the parlay. Might have been FlyMe posts.

I'm still looking for that fabled sportsbook that offers true odds.

 

[djefferis]

If you’re a solid gambler - and actually researching your plays - how many are you making a day ?

4-5 max ? So yes - starting 0-1 means you got to hit 3 to be back in the black. Not impossible - but much harder. Kinda like saying if the batter starts with an 0-1 count - they tend to hit for a much lower average. Most of us aren’t Tony Gwynn or Ted Williams - a lot more Mario Mendoza’s.

 

[KVB]

I'm still looking for that fabled sportsbook that offers true odds.

They should all do it.

When I say true odds I mean inluding the vig for the individual play. I think I need to make a video or recycle some SBR posts to here. I've put out some decent material on what a parlay actually is and how to calculate the vig on a parlay, which is often gotten wrong.

 

[slickfazzer]

JJ Pull out your 3 ring binder and study your betting program.

 

[jjgold]

Racetrack it definitely is the best way to go

Lose 1st bet QUIT