I know one of the keys to winning is to pick inefficient markets which are usually low key or small markets. Books that offer a lot of options like game props and player props are usually books that you can win at as well. Of course you will probably get limited but you can still win a little at least. I just have know idea how to set up my own lines because one I don't know what stats to look at and I'm not that good at math either.
You can also look at injuries and try watching games and getting an overview of how teams or players play but you better be careful betting a game especially something like the NBA when injuries are a factor. Something like college football where the depth is more of a concern than NFL football can be a place to look for injuries since a key player missing in college can be crucial. Especially at a key position like QB or a place where the team doesn't have much depth or there playing a team where having a key guy out might be crucial. For example having a couple of lineman out against a team with a good pass rush or good at stuffing the run could be key to make you want to bet against the team with an injury especially if you can bet the line before the line moves. Another sport which you can look at is college basketball as far as injuries because the depth is not usually there especially at smaller schools and definitely is something to look at if there are multiple guys out especially when the team is on the road playing because we all know teams play worse on the road. You obviously want to hit the number before it moves though.
As far as watching games and trying to get an idea without really using stats I find you will probably get lost unless you really can see how a game is going based on momentum and hitting a line at the key moment. However, you will be paying more juice which means you have to be right more often than your not if you want to win if your going to be watching games and live betting. I feel as though tennis is probably a good sport to bet based on watching and getting a feel since you can see a lot of what is going on watching a tennis match because there is a lot of stoppage between serves and you can see everything that is going on without missing a lot when there is only one person playing against another person.
If your luckily enough to play at some books that are late even to this day when it comes to moving lines than you can win but will probably get limited if you take shots at them. Your better off trying to bet pregame at books where the juice is going to be much smaller at some books and basing your bet off of past performances and trying to find a line that isn't quite accurate whether that be based off the line just flat out not being where it is or maybe based on a a team being on a heater and you feel that the line should be different based on how well a team or player is playing or perhaps there is a particular matchup of that team against another team or that opponent based on another opponent because they have their number for whatever reason and the book is not factoring that in for whatever reason.
For some professional gamblers, they can have success in the smaller markets. The problem is they can’t scale those markets based on low limits. I myself have never dived into the smaller markets much, but poster Carolinakid has, if you wanna pick his brain on his strategies to win in that market so be it. Although I think he just follows the money/steam.
I agree with your basic strategy on how to bet on these games as a whole, via injuries weather momentum etc mixed in with some data that supports a probable win. Yeah I get all that, it sometimes works and sometimes it doesn’t. The one thing that works for me is, I’m very patient and selective, and I never chase The more I win the more I gamble. That’s a strategy in itself.
Most professional gamblers will tell you the way that I bet is amateur as f*** and you cannot scale that. I tend to agree with that because it takes money to make money. If I had 100 K bankroll I would definitely scale and place a lot more bets. It would be a lot more work to on a daily basis to find edges and inefficiencies, along with contrarian plays.
I only read half of what you wrote and this is my response so far I’m getting tired now. LMFAO 
