Horse Favorites Broke a Record 2024

[jjgold]

Favorites in North America won at 39% in 2024, the continuation of a trend seeing that number increase every year.

 

[djefferis]

Smaller fields and big trainers/owners dominating the sport so less and less competition for their horses when they run.

Sport has taken a serious downturn.

 

[jjgold]

Yes

 

[BigJay]

Smaller fields

Definitely the trend at bigger tracks unfortunately

like to know @rdalert447 and @str take on the original post

 

[rdalert447]

Think @djefferis nailed it. Although I’d add CAWs and juicing to his list.

HISA was founded in 2020 with a promise to go after juicers. So far, they’ve only gone after small barns while obvious juicers with mega-barns go untouched.

That being said, I’m not convinced that the fave trend is permanent.

 

[rickeyphillips]

Takeout killed horse racing. The sport is dead. When I used to bet the ponies consistently in the late 90s an exacta 2-1 on top of 5-2 easily would pay $25. Now you get $16-$18 if you’re lucky. Takeout killed the sport.

 

[KVB]

Takeout killed horse racing. The sport is dead. When I used to bet the ponies consistently in the late 90s an exacta 2-1 on top of 5-2 easily would pay $25. Now you get $16-$18 if you’re lucky. Takeout killed the sport.

Those takeout rates go to pay for just about everything from track maintenance to the wages of owners, jockeys, trainers, etc.

Those rates can be really high too. Using any strategies at the track will require factoring in the takeout and they don't advertise the rates. I think you often have to ask.

Rates vary by state and in some states it's up to the track. They can vary depending on whether it's a single or multiple wager ticket, the type of horse race, and exotics, etc.

Not sure if anyone is worse than Arizona. They have an "up to" set of rates:

Up to 25% on win-place show bets
Up to 30% on two horse bets
UP to 35% on any bets involving more than 2 horses in one or multiple races.

That's in-fukkin-sane.

 

[KVB]

25%-35% is pretty big vigorish to overcome to get to profit.

 

[gauchojake]

2024 seemingly was the year of the square bettor. Nice job hooking the newbs, let's wait for the rug pull in 25.

 

[lekidecincinnati]

i remember making a bet last year on a horse was 6-1 when race went off odds when race finished

5-2 so shady horse racing

 

[BigJay]

25%-35% is pretty big vigorish to overcome to get to profit.

No doubt

I used to hit the pick-3’s with regularity for my biggest scores when I played in my 20s (before the pick-4 and pick-5 came around)

Takeout wasn’t that bad.

You could easily hit a 3rd fave/all (say you catch a 15/1 over 2nd or third fave and get a payout close to or over four figures

With the insane takeouts on exotics not only are the pick-4s and pick-5s harder to hit, and when you spend the extra $$ to get more horses in your combos, oftentimes you barely make anything or perhaps even lose $$ because of the takeout.

It’s why I’ve mentioned before I only play the Derby and maybe or maybe not the other two TC races, and maybe a day or two of Breeder’s Cup.

I used to live for the ponies in my early 20s. It was in my blood. Thankfully realized it’s a no-win proposition unless you really like a horse on a given day and you hit and run them.

Saved a lot of money last 15 years or so staying away from the track.

 

[BobbyFK]

25%-35% is pretty big vigorish to overcome to get to profit.

Exactly! It's fun to go bet the races every once in awhile but you're not going to get rich

 

[str]

Definitely the trend at bigger tracks unfortunately

like to know @rdalert447 and @str take on the original post

Smaller fields will show lower payoffs and higher favorite win % for sure. Less traffic, things around you and less things overall that might occur within the race help that statistic. But... that has been going on for several decades going back to the late 70's and 80's when every track wanted to run in the summer. That is what started all this. I could write a three page post on this but what is the sense. There is only one thing in my view, that can ever give racing the boost it needs to run uniform racing, throughout the country, for all different quality's of horse and provide fans with the best product they can , which is what is needed. The answer is, a commissioner that oversees it all, drives the bus if you will, and all the owners pulling together. A similar template that we see with the NFL, MLB, NBA, etc.
Without that, it is every man for themselves and these ultra rich families that own tracks will continue to own them for one thing and one thing only. PROFIT. And as soon as the land outruns the business model for value, that will be that, as the land will be sold for... Profit. Of course.

This is nothing new. We even saw one NFL owner try and work his money grab magic but ultimately failed because the other owners saw enough and forced that jerk out of the club.
That was Dan Snyder and the Washington "whateveryouwanttocallthems".

Maryland racing , who I am still in touch with in a very small way, as they try and restore what was once a storied history, with the new Pimlico. Plenty of damage has been done by the previous ownership but the State is now in charge. What makes this sustainable is it does NOT have to make a profit from day one. The sole purpose of it's existence is to revitalize racing for the state as well as it's fans, workers, etc.

But this is not the norm. This is a non profit state run entity. It is quite different. So as a whole, I feel like the only way to get racing back where it can be attractive to fans to the degree it was, is to work together, like the NFL, where two teams will play in the super bowl but all teams will gain by the popularity of the sport.

It sounds so easy and of course it is not easy at all. But probably the hardest part of all of this will be getting track owners to agree that their product is dying and the only value left is the ground it sits on.

Sorry for the long winded answer. I love the game and have since I was 15. I spent over three decades in it every single day and it really hurts to see it crumbling before my eyes. I walked away at age 46 because I knew as things stood, it was going to be much worse before it got better. The drugs made me puke. The greed did as well. And the game I fell in love with let me down.
What did Harry Chapin say ?: "Another man might have been angry, and another man might have been hurt. But another man never would have let her go. I stashed the bill in my shirt." Well, that's what happened in my case.
So much can be done, but a big hurtle is blocking the way for that. Owners personnel greed.


So Jay, it is really tricky. But it CAN happen. We can only hope we live to see it.

All the best.

str

 

[jjgold]

Eventually, it’s only gonna be about 5 to 7 tracks. There’s rumors Gulfstream Park is closing in 2028 because the land is worth $2 billion.

 

[lekidecincinnati]

do u see janine author of article very fit

Horse racing could end at iconic Gulfstream Park

Thoroughbred horse racing at Gulfstream Park could be a thing of the past, renowned horse trainer Dale Romans said Thursday.

www.local10.com

 

[rickeyphillips]

Those takeout rates go to pay for just about everything from track maintenance to the wages of owners, jockeys, trainers, etc.

Those rates can be really high too. Using any strategies at the track will require factoring in the takeout and they don't advertise the rates. I think you often have to ask.

Rates vary by state and in some states it's up to the track. They can vary depending on whether it's a single or multiple wager ticket, the type of horse race, and exotics, etc.

Not sure if anyone is worse than Arizona. They have an "up to" set of rates:

Up to 25% on win-place show bets
Up to 30% on two horse bets
UP to 35% on any bets involving more than 2 horses in one or multiple races.

That's in-fukkin-sane.

I don’t give a flying f*** what they go to pay for. It killed the sport.

 

[str]

do u see janine author of article very fit

Horse racing could end at iconic Gulfstream Park

Thoroughbred horse racing at Gulfstream Park could be a thing of the past, renowned horse trainer Dale Romans said Thursday.

www.local10.com

If you are asking me, she is just a reporter doing her job. She is talking to credible people though.

 

[str]

I don’t give a flying f*** what they go to pay for. It killed the sport.

At the end of the day, this is pretty accurate. 16 and 17% for win place show is one thing but when they introduced triples in the 70’s the greed showed. And then came a triple in every race as well as more exotics at higher takeouts.
Of course the state lottery is a complete joke but that’s a whole other story.
Funny thing is, the customer actually controls everything. They just don’t realize it because they are all independent of one another. Pretty incredible when you think about it. What a scam.

 

[jjgold]

Also other countries racing is flourishing common theme almost everything is free for the player