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Going to be interesting to see how Robinhood Markets handles this one

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djefferis

djefferis

Joined
Jan 8, 2024
Messages
3,821
Sinner v. Dimitrov match (to win)

So it was obvious Dimitrov was struggling - I already had a lot of Dimitrov in live betting as match progressed - so went in and loaded up on 25k Sinner at 49 cents on average.

Obvious the live bets will void - but Robinhood is now indicating Sinner will pay out at 1.00 (which they should) - no retirement rules on live markets like this.

Damn good day if it stands.
 

djefferis

djefferis

Joined
Jan 8, 2024
Messages
3,821
Well - they paid it.

Surprising really and I’m sure there will be some pissed off Dimitrov contract holders (they aren’t doing huge volume - but decent - think around 300k on Dimitrov at the time of his resigning).

Really - anyone dumb enough to bet Dimitrov like this with his injury history - or at least not accounting for it in pricing is nuts.

Just plain luck on my end - I’ve watched markets for potential arbitrage opportunities. Worst case - I manage to eat up rollover and win at an offshore book while losing at RH (so a paper loss for tax purposes to offset stock profits). I was buying up what I could when Sinner was between -110 to -118 live betting offshore at 48-49 cents as well as No on Dimitrov to win at the same.

That’s the only issue - with such low liquidity at times - faves tend to get over valued. Same thing that’s been evident on many exchanges though. Occasionally - you can grab a 2 cent “savings” by just moving to the “no” on the opposition vs betting the side you want.

Really wish they would just allow you to set a limit price and let it ride vs the current fill or kill. Gets annoying seeing a price you want - hitting submit and getting the “your order was partially filled” message - only to look and see you got 4 contracts of the 5k you offered on.
 

BigJay

BigJay

Joined
Oct 28, 2021
Messages
19,826
You’re lucky they did

If he’d have taken the $8 million NIL $$ instead of going to the draft he’d likely be the starter for your Miami Hurricanes

Rumors were Canes and Notre Dame made him an offer. I think the big $$ deal came from ND and maybe a bit smaller (but larger than what Beck got) came from Miami
 

JDS

JDS

Joined
Dec 11, 2021
Messages
53,602
You’re lucky they did

If he’d have taken the $8 million NIL $$ instead of going to the draft he’d likely be the starter for your Miami Hurricanes
I mean he’s not a bad college quarterback he’s a nice little player, but he’s definitely not NFL caliber.
 

djefferis

djefferis

Joined
Jan 8, 2024
Messages
3,821
I highly suspect Sinner withdrawals based on his comments yesterday after the match.

Out of respect and false hope - he may wait the day and announce tomorrow. Even if he tries to gut through it - he will not survive.

Right indications are Sinner not to win it all are around 72 cents - that’s absolutely a free 25+% profit for doing nothing. He doesn’t continue - you win, even if he plays - he’s not winning a major in his condition.

I’m taking my free money and loading up today on no contracts (80%) and Shelton over Sinner (20%) at a sweet 20 cents each for a 400% return. Worst case - by some miracle he beats Shelton and loses in the semis and I only make 5% or so on my money for a few days waiting.
 

djefferis

djefferis

Joined
Jan 8, 2024
Messages
3,821
A lot of those exchanges have the rule whoever advances

Which is at it should be - only thing is - how long until regulators grab hold of these and start cracking down.

With sportsbooks (and RH for the moment) - the risk is single sided - your betting against the book/market maker. If they get slammed on fast developing situations, inside info or just outright match rigging - no one’s going to feel sorry for them.

Now in a pure exchange - it’s completely bettor vs bettor - and losing bettors will always cry foul. Of course they will claim match fixing every time and allege big bettors were in on the fix and “cheated” them out of their hard earned money. Worse, local regulators will seize on this publicity opportunity to both create more bureaucratic positions “monitoring” the markets and to tell us how they are doing us all a favor by placing a “small” tax on every bet with their app partners to keep everyone safe.

It’s simple - just like offshore years ago - a lot of politicians don’t want this exchange. It’s taking money out of big donors pockets and putting into non donors. Likewise, think of the stock market - there are trading circuit breakers and overlords who will freeze stocks when potentially impactful news is expected. A tanker releases a few million gallons of oil into the ocean or some 3rd world dictator seizes an energy compound somewhere - the company stock will be frozen pending news.

Lines move rapidly - but on exchanges with limited volume it’s more pronounced. Worse - casino operators already are looking to get them banned and will begin to use this as their rallying cry - reminding everyone they “did the right thing” and protected uninformed bettors by canceling bets.
 

djefferis

djefferis

Joined
Jan 8, 2024
Messages
3,821
Also - tried getting in contracts this morning.

Started with No on Sinner to win it all - indicated at 84 cents. Submitted 5k, got 12. Bumped to 85 cents - that netted me a whopping 40 more.

I’m firm at 85 - otherwise it’s just feeding the big boys and they can eat the risk. So hopefully he loses it all and I net a whopping 8 bucks and can enjoy a Big Mac and Diet Coke.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
53,295
Which is at it should be - only thing is - how long until regulators grab hold of these and start cracking down.
Didn't California just look at banning fantasy betting and weren't the exchanges included in that case? Of course, California is kind of an outlier so it might just be a one off for now.
 

djefferis

djefferis

Joined
Jan 8, 2024
Messages
3,821
They did ban DFS recently.

Doubtful it will stand up long once challenged in Federal courts - but they are fighting to protect corporate interest from competition - just as Texas and Florida do as well.

They know once they lose - there is ALOT of political capital going away and doing all they can to hold on to it.
 
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