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Georgia (-2.5) @ ‘Bama (49.5) - where does this like close ?

djefferis

djefferis

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Jan 8, 2024
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Just saw the first posted line on next weeks showdown in the SEC.

My prediction - spread moves closer to 4.5 by next Saturday and total could easily move 5 points here.

Big game and fact it’s in Tuscaloosa is a factor - but I’d be betting Dawgs all the way here. Playing the -130 money line now while I can.
 

djefferis

djefferis

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Will be a better match up than this for certain.

I think Georgia by 10+ - people over reacting to how close Kentucky game was and thinking ‘Bama is a championship caliber team still.

Georgia is a top 3 talent team - Bama is closer to top 12.
 

Tanko

Tanko

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Oct 27, 2021
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Just saw the first posted line on next weeks showdown in the SEC.

My prediction - spread moves closer to 4.5 by next Saturday and total could easily move 5 points here.

Big game and fact it’s in Tuscaloosa is a factor - but I’d be betting Dawgs all the way here. Playing the -130 money line now while I can.
Wow. Shocked at the Bama +2.5 spread at home.

My first pass on the calcs I have for this game yields a spread of Bama -3.
I'd take Bama and points right now and see about a 9.5% +EV.
 

BigJay

BigJay

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Oct 28, 2021
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Just saw the first posted line on next weeks showdown in the SEC.

My prediction - spread moves closer to 4.5 by next Saturday and total could easily move 5 points here.

Big game and fact it’s in Tuscaloosa is a factor - but I’d be betting Dawgs all the way here. Playing the -130 money line now while I can.
You see a Georgia at Texas line yet?

I’m guessing maybe off the board because of the QB situation at Texas
 

KVB

KVB

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Apr 11, 2023
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17,377
Ok, so this line has been tossed around for a few days.

Line opened early with Georgia -4.5 in a few places, at the same time.

The line was bet down to as low as a near pick before basically coming back to the 2.5 you're seeing.

That early lined steamed in some places far enough to make Bama a favorite, briefly.

We'll see how that action comes in but there are already 4.5s owned out there and it's possible the market learned or may not be able to go there again.

There will be triggers to buy on Bama at +3 and I would not underestimate those traders, they may come strong.
 

JDS

JDS

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Dec 11, 2021
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I would lean the road favorite and the under in this match up.
 

KingKolzig

KingKolzig

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Nov 8, 2021
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Starting to feel games are coached different a bit with playoffs now being 12 teams. Save key somewhat listed players cause 10-2 likely gets you in

Gundy pulling qb bowman like wtf?

He do that in a must win game??
 
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