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Georgia (-2.5) @ ‘Bama (49.5) - where does this like close ?

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djefferis

djefferis

Joined
Jan 8, 2024
Messages
2,104
Just saw the first posted line on next weeks showdown in the SEC.

My prediction - spread moves closer to 4.5 by next Saturday and total could easily move 5 points here.

Big game and fact it’s in Tuscaloosa is a factor - but I’d be betting Dawgs all the way here. Playing the -130 money line now while I can.
 

djefferis

djefferis

Joined
Jan 8, 2024
Messages
2,104
Will be a better match up than this for certain.

I think Georgia by 10+ - people over reacting to how close Kentucky game was and thinking ‘Bama is a championship caliber team still.

Georgia is a top 3 talent team - Bama is closer to top 12.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
42,543
Just saw the first posted line on next weeks showdown in the SEC.

My prediction - spread moves closer to 4.5 by next Saturday and total could easily move 5 points here.

Big game and fact it’s in Tuscaloosa is a factor - but I’d be betting Dawgs all the way here. Playing the -130 money line now while I can.
Wow. Shocked at the Bama +2.5 spread at home.

My first pass on the calcs I have for this game yields a spread of Bama -3.
I'd take Bama and points right now and see about a 9.5% +EV.
 

BigJay

BigJay

Joined
Oct 28, 2021
Messages
12,184
Just saw the first posted line on next weeks showdown in the SEC.

My prediction - spread moves closer to 4.5 by next Saturday and total could easily move 5 points here.

Big game and fact it’s in Tuscaloosa is a factor - but I’d be betting Dawgs all the way here. Playing the -130 money line now while I can.
You see a Georgia at Texas line yet?

I’m guessing maybe off the board because of the QB situation at Texas
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,621
Ok, so this line has been tossed around for a few days.

Line opened early with Georgia -4.5 in a few places, at the same time.

The line was bet down to as low as a near pick before basically coming back to the 2.5 you're seeing.

That early lined steamed in some places far enough to make Bama a favorite, briefly.

We'll see how that action comes in but there are already 4.5s owned out there and it's possible the market learned or may not be able to go there again.

There will be triggers to buy on Bama at +3 and I would not underestimate those traders, they may come strong.
 

KingKolzig

KingKolzig

Joined
Nov 8, 2021
Messages
7,112
Starting to feel games are coached different a bit with playoffs now being 12 teams. Save key somewhat listed players cause 10-2 likely gets you in

Gundy pulling qb bowman like wtf?

He do that in a must win game??
 
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