***G-Man's College Week 11***
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Thursday
FAU +8 (-117) over East Carolina 3 units
Both defenses are horrible and the last team to score covers.
Appy -ML (-135) over Coastal. 4 units
Common opponents decide this play.
In the Louisiana games with Appy and Coastal - the difference was that Appy lost to Louisianna on five (5) turnovers.and still out-gained them
The CC game was a loss for CC because they were out gained by 120 yds and allowed 513 yds to Louisiana.
One last important stat is that Appy has played great defense the last 2 games by only allowing 26 and 20 points to Ga. State and Old Dominion.
FAU +8 (-117) over East Carolina 3 units
Both defenses are horrible and the last team to score covers.
Appy -ML (-135) over Coastal. 4 units
Common opponents decide this play.
In the Louisiana games with Appy and Coastal - the difference was that Appy lost to Louisianna on five (5) turnovers.and still out-gained them
The CC game was a loss for CC because they were out gained by 120 yds and allowed 513 yds to Louisiana.
One last important stat is that Appy has played great defense the last 2 games by only allowing 26 and 20 points to Ga. State and Old Dominion.
FRIDAY
CAL -6.5 (-135) over WAKE 3 units
Best defenses that WF faced all year are Clemson and Ole Miss.
Last game they faced Clemson (#63) who had defense ranked at 24 points per game they were pounded 49-14.
They faced Ole Miss (#6) Who allowed only 13 points per game and lost 40-6.
. In both games WF was a 21 pt dog. And both games were at home, which is were they are again tonight.
Cal is ranked # 11 on defense.
UCLA +7 (-120) over Iowa 3 units
Based on the last 3 games UCLA played with Minn, Penn State and Nebraska and holding them to 27, 23 and20 points - the home dog gets the cash ats.
SDSU ML -130 over New Mexico. 2 units
SDSU faced better teams and the defense is far better
CAL -6.5 (-135) over WAKE 3 units
Best defenses that WF faced all year are Clemson and Ole Miss.
Last game they faced Clemson (#63) who had defense ranked at 24 points per game they were pounded 49-14.
They faced Ole Miss (#6) Who allowed only 13 points per game and lost 40-6.
. In both games WF was a 21 pt dog. And both games were at home, which is were they are again tonight.
Cal is ranked # 11 on defense.
UCLA +7 (-120) over Iowa 3 units
Based on the last 3 games UCLA played with Minn, Penn State and Nebraska and holding them to 27, 23 and20 points - the home dog gets the cash ats.
SDSU ML -130 over New Mexico. 2 units
SDSU faced better teams and the defense is far better
Saturday.
NOON
Florida +21.5 over Texas-21 3 units.
Texas is a Top 12 offense and #2 defense. but played only 2 ranked teams and lost to Georgia and beat Vanderbilt by only 3 points.
Florida only averaged 18 points in road games vs ranked teams and allowed 28.
Points are too much to lay for TEX.
WV+4.5 over Cincinnati. 3 units.
WV played 4 ranked teams and is still a positive scoring team against better overall competition.
One common opponent was Pitt and both games were within 4 points.
WV has a backup QB starting - but he beat Arizona last week SU as a 5 point dog.
GT +8.5 over Miami Fla. 4 units
Both teams played Duke and GT was far better vs them.
Duke had 4 turnovers vs Miami and also rolled upo 400 yds on Miami.
GT held Duke to only 279 yds.
This is ripe for an upset on Miami.
Purdue 1H +23.5 <<< over Ohio State. 2 units
Spread is larger than what OSU averages per game with only 3 games scoring over 38 points. That was against poor teams that are not in the Big 10.
Could be a coast game by Buckeyes.
2:30PM
UCONN -7 over UAB. 3 units
UAB lost by an average of 28 points against winning record teams.
3:30PM
Ole Miss +2.5 over Georgia. 5 units
By far the best defensive team that Georgia has faced all year.
Indiana -13.5 over Michigan 3 units
Like I said last week... The magic is gone for Michigan.
Texas Tech +4.5 over Colorado. 3 units
Common Opponent was Baylor where Colorado was a -2.5 favorite and TT was a -4.5 point favorite.
Colorado at home killed Baylor 38-31 while TT was smashed by Baylor 59-35 at home.
I'm fading the public here just because I trust the lines were right in the games with Baylor. and they are now flipped in Texas Tech's favor.
Texas Tech BEAT a 7-0 Iowa State team last week and Colorado isnt as good as ISU.
7PM'
Oregon -25 over MD. 4 units
MD Big 10 losses were by 27, 14 and 25 points. NONE of the teams were ranked #1. Only Indiana was ranked @#8 and the score was way worse than what it was - because Indiana also had Four (4) turnovers or the margin would have been much more than 14 points.
Tennessee -24 (-140) over Miss St. 3 units
Miss State road defense is horrible.
7:30.
Notre Dame -25 over FSU. 4 units
LSU +3.5 over Alabama.5 units
Bama couldn't beat Tennessee or Vanderbilt on the road so I dont see them beating LSU at LSU.
8PM
Penn State -12 over Washington. 3 units
Virginia +7.5 over Pitt. 3 units
Boise -23.5 over Nevada. 4 units
10:30PM
Utah +3.5 over BYU. 6 units. My best play today.
First game all year where Utah is the underdog.
One common opponent was "Baylor" where Utah was favored by 15 points and BYU was the dog by 3. Thats an 18 point difference to consider here.
While Utah has a losing record they are likely in it tor the win with a small spread today as the dog.
The stark difference in the spread has the odds maker looking for at least a cover here as Utah has only ONE ATS win on the season.
While Utah is only 4-4 SU this season, a win here could get them a Bowl game if the finish out the season well.
Most important - Utah has allowed no team to score over 19 points in its last 4 games. They have an spectacular scoring defense of only 17 points/game and when I see a home dog allowing under 20 per game it usually comes out a winner.
NOON
Florida +21.5 over Texas-21 3 units.
Texas is a Top 12 offense and #2 defense. but played only 2 ranked teams and lost to Georgia and beat Vanderbilt by only 3 points.
Florida only averaged 18 points in road games vs ranked teams and allowed 28.
Points are too much to lay for TEX.
WV+4.5 over Cincinnati. 3 units.
WV played 4 ranked teams and is still a positive scoring team against better overall competition.
One common opponent was Pitt and both games were within 4 points.
WV has a backup QB starting - but he beat Arizona last week SU as a 5 point dog.
GT +8.5 over Miami Fla. 4 units
Both teams played Duke and GT was far better vs them.
Duke had 4 turnovers vs Miami and also rolled upo 400 yds on Miami.
GT held Duke to only 279 yds.
This is ripe for an upset on Miami.
Purdue 1H +23.5 <<< over Ohio State. 2 units
Spread is larger than what OSU averages per game with only 3 games scoring over 38 points. That was against poor teams that are not in the Big 10.
Could be a coast game by Buckeyes.
2:30PM
UCONN -7 over UAB. 3 units
UAB lost by an average of 28 points against winning record teams.
3:30PM
Ole Miss +2.5 over Georgia. 5 units
By far the best defensive team that Georgia has faced all year.
Indiana -13.5 over Michigan 3 units
Like I said last week... The magic is gone for Michigan.
Texas Tech +4.5 over Colorado. 3 units
Common Opponent was Baylor where Colorado was a -2.5 favorite and TT was a -4.5 point favorite.
Colorado at home killed Baylor 38-31 while TT was smashed by Baylor 59-35 at home.
I'm fading the public here just because I trust the lines were right in the games with Baylor. and they are now flipped in Texas Tech's favor.
Texas Tech BEAT a 7-0 Iowa State team last week and Colorado isnt as good as ISU.
7PM'
Oregon -25 over MD. 4 units
MD Big 10 losses were by 27, 14 and 25 points. NONE of the teams were ranked #1. Only Indiana was ranked @#8 and the score was way worse than what it was - because Indiana also had Four (4) turnovers or the margin would have been much more than 14 points.
Tennessee -24 (-140) over Miss St. 3 units
Miss State road defense is horrible.
7:30.
Notre Dame -25 over FSU. 4 units
LSU +3.5 over Alabama.5 units
Bama couldn't beat Tennessee or Vanderbilt on the road so I dont see them beating LSU at LSU.
8PM
Penn State -12 over Washington. 3 units
Virginia +7.5 over Pitt. 3 units
Boise -23.5 over Nevada. 4 units
10:30PM
Utah +3.5 over BYU. 6 units. My best play today.
First game all year where Utah is the underdog.
One common opponent was "Baylor" where Utah was favored by 15 points and BYU was the dog by 3. Thats an 18 point difference to consider here.
While Utah has a losing record they are likely in it tor the win with a small spread today as the dog.
The stark difference in the spread has the odds maker looking for at least a cover here as Utah has only ONE ATS win on the season.
While Utah is only 4-4 SU this season, a win here could get them a Bowl game if the finish out the season well.
Most important - Utah has allowed no team to score over 19 points in its last 4 games. They have an spectacular scoring defense of only 17 points/game and when I see a home dog allowing under 20 per game it usually comes out a winner.
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