8. Philadelphia Eagles
Chances to make the playoffs: 80.8%
Chances to play in the Super Bowl: 25.5%
Biggest flaw: Defense up the middle
If you're a baseball fan, you've heard the old adage about how hard it is to win if you're not strong up the middle. It's not as essential in football, but it's a perfect way to capture what's concerning about the 2023 Eagles. The NFC champs lost five defensive starters, all of whom play in the middle of the field: defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, linebackers T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White, and safeties Marcus Epps and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Throw in the departures of Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph and there are loads of snaps missing from the middle of this defense.
Let's go level by level and start up front. Hargrave was the team's most impactful interior disruptor; he shouldered the responsibilities of the defense's gap-and-a-half scheme on early downs and still racked up 11 sacks last season. The Eagles have used first-round picks in back-to-back seasons on Georgia tackles Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis, so this is the position where they're best equipped to try to replace their departed starter. Unfortunately, Hargrave is also the best player of those five by a considerable margin.
Linebacker is a position Philadelphia typically hasn't valued, so it was no surprise Edwards and White were allowed to leave. The team is right to believe it's easier to find useful players at off-ball linebacker than most other positions, but Alex Singleton and Nate Gerry have in the past become scapegoats in Philadelphia for their struggles in coverage. There's a fine line between saving money and letting a position waste away, and it's one general manager Howie Roseman can fluctuate on from year to year.
Again, there's a Georgia product in the mix here, with 2022 third-rounder Nakobe Dean expected to play a larger role. Nicholas Morrow was signed from the Bears, but it was no surprise to see Roseman go after a pair of veterans last week when he signed Zach Cunningham and Myles Jack to one-year deals with just $25,000 guaranteed. Cunningham and Jack are still young and have big names, but they've been cap casualties for their struggles in coverage elsewhere, which is why they were still unsigned in mid-August. The hope will be that one of those veterans will make the team, but Roseman might not be done shopping at the position as camp cuts occur.
Safety would be my biggest worry. Reed Blankenship will take over for Gardner-Johnson, a change that was a major problem last season. Even with a dominant defensive line, two veteran linebackers and cornerbacks playing at a high level, swapping out Gardner-Johnson for Blankenship was enough to transform the Philadelphia defense. The same Eagles defense that allowed a 28.2 QBR with Gardner-Johnson on the field dropped to 52.7 with Blankenship taking his place. (I thought the effect might be a product of Blankenship playing in garbage time, but it was actually an even bigger split after I put a win probability filter in the mix.)
Blankenship will need to take better angles as a tackler and hold up in coverage in Philadelphia's split-safety looks. He'll be joined by Terrell Edmunds, who will move from primarily serving as a box safety in Pittsburgh a year ago to playing more deep coverage in Philadelphia. Rookie third-round pick Sydney Brown could figure in the mix, while there's a deep sleeper in Justin Evans, who impressed early in his career with the Buccaneers before missing the 2019, 2020 and 2021 seasons because of injury. Evans finally made it back last season and played 392 snaps for the Saints before signing a one-year deal with the Eagles.
So much of what works and doesn't work for the Eagles is dictated by what happens up front. Last season, with the offensive line healthy and the defensive line posting one of the best sack rates in NFL history, everything was working. If the line continues to get pressure at the league's highest rate, the guys behind it will be fine. If the front four drops back toward league average, though, new defensive coordinator Sean Desai will be feeling the loss of those veterans up the middle.
