First four round

[mhovey55]

• Over the last 11 NCAA Tournaments, underdogs own a 24-19 ATS (55.8%) edge in the First Four round.

• Since 2001, there have only been eight First Four games with lines of 5 points or higher. Favorites are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS (75%) in those contests.

• More on point spread benchmarks, in that same span since 2001, favorites of less than 5 points are 26-22 SU but just 19-28-1 ATS (40.4%)

• Outright winners have gone 35-3 ATS (92.1%) in the First Four round since 2013, although in a strange most recent loss, Drake did win vs. Wichita State without covering in 2021 on a 1.5-point spread.

• Formerly, all First Four games used to match No. 16 seeds. Recently, First Four games featuring seeds 12 or better have trended 15-7 Under (68.2%)

• Higher totaled First Four games, or those higher than 139, have also trended 14-7 Under (66.7%)

 

[steelers76]

Good stuff

 

[BMR Genie]

Good info, Mhovey. Thanks for sharing.

 

[jjgold]

Basically blindly bet dogs and your fine

 

[Tanko]

• Over the last 11 NCAA Tournaments, underdogs own a 24-19 ATS (55.8%) edge in the First Four round.

• Since 2001, there have only been eight First Four games with lines of 5 points or higher. Favorites are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS (75%) in those contests.

• More on point spread benchmarks, in that same span since 2001, favorites of less than 5 points are 26-22 SU but just 19-28-1 ATS (40.4%)

• Outright winners have gone 35-3 ATS (92.1%) in the First Four round since 2013, although in a strange most recent loss, Drake did win vs. Wichita State without covering in 2021 on a 1.5-point spread.

• Formerly, all First Four games used to match No. 16 seeds. Recently, First Four games featuring seeds 12 or better have trended 15-7 Under (68.2%)

• Higher totaled First Four games, or those higher than 139, have also trended 14-7 Under (66.7%)

Thanks mhovey....
Love the information.

 

[Headsterx]

Excellent stuff! Thread of the week. But info is useless as we need to wait until Thursday.

 

[Headsterx]

Colorado St v. Virginia is a 10th seeded game with total around 120. Hard to pick the under but this game does involve VA. I think I’ll skip the total and take VA.

 

[Headsterx]

“favorites of less than 5 points are 26-22 SU but just 19-28-1 ATS (40.4%)”….

Both Tuesday games should be close then.

 

[BigJay]

• Over the last 11 NCAA Tournaments, underdogs own a 24-19 ATS (55.8%) edge in the First Four round.

• Since 2001, there have only been eight First Four games with lines of 5 points or higher. Favorites are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS (75%) in those contests.

• More on point spread benchmarks, in that same span since 2001, favorites of less than 5 points are 26-22 SU but just 19-28-1 ATS (40.4%)

• Outright winners have gone 35-3 ATS (92.1%) in the First Four round since 2013, although in a strange most recent loss, Drake did win vs. Wichita State without covering in 2021 on a 1.5-point spread.

• Formerly, all First Four games used to match No. 16 seeds. Recently, First Four games featuring seeds 12 or better have trended 15-7 Under (68.2%)

• Higher totaled First Four games, or those higher than 139, have also trended 14-7 Under (66.7%)

Good info man

 

[RRsilver]

Thanks for the info!

 

[bigdaniil445]

Excellent stuff! Thread of the week. But info is useless as we need to wait until Thursday.

Info is useless, period.

This year is unique in so many respects because there are so many bid stealing teams (5 instead of usual 2-3), just 11 one-seeds winning their conference tournaments and in general 11-12 seeds are getting a lot more points and will win hardly any 'upset games'.

Watch Uconn play Arizona in the final and in general, underdogs getting destroyed at a higher rate than usual. All underdogs except Longwood Lancers (homer opinion lol)

 

[bigdaniil445]

typo... UNC play Arizona in the final

 

[Headsterx]

Info is useless, period.

This year is unique in so many respects because there are so many bid stealing teams (5 instead of usual 2-3), just 11 one-seeds winning their conference tournaments and in general 11-12 seeds are getting a lot more points and will win hardly any 'upset games'.

Watch Uconn play Arizona in the final and in general, underdogs getting destroyed at a higher rate than usual. All underdogs except Longwood Lancers (homer opinion lol)

This thread is about First Four and not Final Four. Anyway, good luck with your bracket.

 

[bigdaniil445]

This thread is about First Four and not Final Four. Anyway, good luck with your bracket.

You too!! My bracket this year has exactly one seed 11 or below advancing in all 4 regions. So of course it's about the first four.

Just one man's opinion/not financial advice/only bet what you can afford to lose!

 

[bigdaniil445]

This thread is about First Four and not Final Four. Anyway, good luck with your bracket.

OOPS.

This feels stupid. Wrong thread, sorry OP lol

 

[steelers76]

Info is useless, period.

This year is unique in so many respects because there are so many bid stealing teams (5 instead of usual 2-3), just 11 one-seeds winning their conference tournaments and in general 11-12 seeds are getting a lot more points and will win hardly any 'upset games'.

Watch Uconn play Arizona in the final and in general, underdogs getting destroyed at a higher rate than usual. All underdogs except Longwood Lancers (homer opinion lol)

HUH???