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Fantasy Football 2023: News/Notes/Articles🏈
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Offensive lines that will provide a boost to fantasy rushers in 2023
Eric Moody
Pittsburgh Steelers
Key additions: G Isaac Seumalo, G Nate Herbig, OT Broderick JonesSubtractions: None
2022 run block win rate rank: 14 (72%)
The Steelers ended 2022 ranked 14th in run block win rate, but the offensive line did show improvement as the season went along. That improvement coincided with Najee Harris finding his stride after overcoming a Lisfranc injury that hindered him early on. For Weeks 10-17, Harris was fantasy's eighth-ranked running back, averaging 15.3 PPG.
Fast-forward to this offseason, where the Steelers underwent significant change along the O-line, adding former Eagles guard Isaac Seumalo and ex-Jet Nate Herbig through free agency and moving up to take Jones in the first round of April's draft. With QB Kenny Pickett expected to make a significant jump in Year 2 and an upgraded unit up front, Harris becomes an appealing option at his current average draft position as a mid-range RB2. In 2023, he could easily climb back into the upper echelon of fantasy running backs and is a great pick in Round 2 or Round 3.
Over the past two seasons, Harris ranks fifth with 1,087 rushing yards after first contact and seventh with 1,147 rushing yards before first contact.
Denver Broncos
Key additions: G Ben Powers, OT Mike McGlinchey, C Alex Forsyth, HC Sean PaytonSubtractions: G Dalton Risner, G Billy Turner
2022 run block win rate rank: 4 (74%)
It wasn't exactly smooth sailing in Denver last season. The Broncos faced numerous issues, with offensive line play among them. It was the first time that no Denver offensive lineman started every game since 1987. However, the Broncos made targeted improvements to the unit in the offseason, acquiring two high-quality starters in Powers and McGlinchey.
Of course, they also brought in former Saints head coach Sean Payton. During Payton's tenure in New Orleans from 2006 to 2021, the Saints had the ninth-highest run block win rate in the league. With his emphasis on O-line play and the running game, the Broncos are poised for a turnaround after ranking 21st in rushing yards per game in 2022.
That is great news for the prospects of Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine. While Williams' Week 1 status is uncertain with him coming off a season-ending knee injury, Perine is expected to have a significant role this season, regardless. Both stand to benefit from the renewed focus on the run game and should outperform fantasy projections.
Kansas City Chiefs
Key additions: RT Jawaan Taylor, LT Donovan Smith, OT Wanya MorrisSubtractions: OT Orlando Brown Jr.
2022 run block win rate rank: 3 (74%)
When fantasy managers think of the Chiefs, the passing attack under Patrick Mahomes is probably the first thing that comes to mind. So maybe it comes as a surprise that Kansas City's offensive line finished fifth in run block win rate last season. With the addition of two new starting tackles -- former Jaguars RT Jawaan Taylor signed a four-year deal worth $80 million, and ex-Bucs LT Donovan Smith was brought in on a one-year deal -- this unit could be even better in 2023.
That's good news for the run game and Isiah Pacheco, who led the Chiefs with 830 rushing yards as a rookie last season and showcased his skills with an additional 197 yards in the postseason (and a TD in the Super Bowl). Pacheco ranked 14th in the NFL with 2.91 rushing yards per carry before contact and had the third-highest success rate among running backs with at least 150 rushing attempts last season. From Week 10-17 last season, he ranked sixth with 569 rushing yards. Tied to a high-powered offense and an improved offensive line, his talents will shine brighter. Projected as a low-end RB2, he's likely to surpass expectations. Available in Rounds 5 and 6, consider selecting him a round earlier.
Jerick McKinnon also had a solid season in 2022, playing in all 17 regular-season games and accumulating 803 yards from scrimmage while setting career highs in targets (71), receptions (56) and total touchdowns (10). Both backs promise to make a significant impact in 2023 behind an even stronger line, making them solid additions to fantasy teams.
Cleveland Browns
Key additions: OT Dawand JonesSubtractions: None
2022 run block win rate: 12 (72%)
The Browns dealt with injuries along the offensive line last season and had a somewhat lackluster performance, ranking 13th in run block win rate. However, when healthy, and with Pro Bowl guards Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller anchoring the unit, Cleveland boasts one of the league's top O-lines and should experience a rebound in 2023. The Browns also re-signed center Ethan Pocic and added Jones in the fourth round of the draft.
As a team, the Browns ranked fifth in the NFL last season with 146.5 rushing yards per game and 31.3 attempts. Lead back Nick Chubb (last year's RB6), ranked fourth in total rushing yards before first contact (798), showing a strong ability to read blocks and identify open running lanes (16th in success rate). In addition, Chubb was third in rushing yards after contact, so he's also breaking tackles and evading defenders (his 88 rushes of 10-plus yards over the past two seasons leads the league).
Over the past three seasons, Chubb has averaged 18.2 touches, 102.7 total yards and 16.3 fantasy points per game. Our projections for this season place him in the just inside the top 10 among running backs. With a healthy offensive line, Chubb has the potential to crack the top five. He was RB4 during Weeks 1-12, slipping to RB23 when Deshaun Watson returned. As Watson gets more acclimated, the Browns offense should be more efficient. Additionally, Chubb may see increased targets with Kareem Hunt and Duke Johnson gone. Do not hesitate to draft him near the end of Round 1 or at the top of Round 2.
Meanwhile, fantasy managers looking for a lottery ticket should keep an eye on second-year back Jerome Ford. If Chubb were to miss time, the former Cincinnati Bearcats running back, who ran for 1,319 yards and 19 TDs on 215 rushing attempts in 2021, has shown a versatile skill set that translates well to the NFL.
Green Bay Packers
Key additions: NoneSubtractions: QB Aaron Rodgers
2022 run block win rate rank: 8 (72%)
Sometimes not making moves is the biggest move. Green Bay has made significant investments to bolster its offensive line in recent years, and that has paid off with a line that remains intact. Last season, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combined for nearly 1,900 rushing yards behind a unit that ranked eighth in run block win rate. Jones ranked seventh in rushing yards before first contact (704) and had the fifth-highest success rate among running backs with at least 150 rushing attempts last season.
With first-year starter Jordan Love taking over at quarterback after sitting behind a future Hall of Famer in Rodgers, I expect the Packers to put more emphasis on the run game. (The Packers did invest in two tight ends and two side receivers in their first seven picks of April's draft.)
A fantasy-friendly schedule also benefits Jones and Dillon. Six of Green Bay's games are against NFC North opponents. Based on their offseason changes, the Vikings, Bears and Lions are not considered top-20 defenses. There are also four games against the NFC South, another division without threatening defenses. The Packers' offensive line should have a lot of success against these opponents.
Jones is projected to finish as a top-10 fantasy running back. If you prioritize wide receivers early in your draft, you shouldn't overlook him. Jones and Dillon project for a combined 430-plus touches, making them excellent value picks in fantasy football drafts at their current average draft positions.
Atlanta Falcons
Key additions: G Matthew BergeronSubtractions: G Elijah Wilkinson
2022 run block win rate rank: 25 (71%)
Atlanta struggled mightily in the passing game last season, but that certainly didn't carry over to the running game. The Falcons ranked second in the league with 32.9 rushing attempts per game and third in rushing yards per contest with 159.9. Despite ranking 26th in run block win rate in 2022, this is a solid offensive line that returns four starters and adds promising rookie Matthew Bergeron (second round) at guard to bolster the unit in Arthur Smith's run-heavy scheme.
The biggest boost, however, will come from Bijan Robinson, whom the Falcons took with the eighth overall pick in April's draft. Coming off an impressive career at Texas, where he amassed 3,410 rushing yards and 41 total touchdowns, the former Longhorn should have no trouble putting up big numbers behind this line. He is already being drafted as a fantasy star and will have a significant workload. Don't hesitate to use a first-round pick on Robinson, as he's one of the most talented dual-threat backs since LaDanian Tomlinson. Look to the rookie seasons of Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley for a glimpse of Robinson's potential. Elliott finished as RB2 in 2016 and Barkley as RB1 in 2018, with each averaging nearly 23 touches per game.
And don't overlook Tyler Allgeier in the later rounds of fantasy drafts. He could prove to be a hidden gem in the case of a Robinson injury, having rushed for a Falcons rookie record 1,035 yards in 2022.
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Fantasy football: Garrett Wilson among players who will score more TDs in 2023
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALFootball statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
During the 2011 to '21 seasons, there were 135 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches before again managing at least 50 touches the next season. Of those 135 instances, 93 times (68.9%) the player scored more touchdowns the next season.
Focusing in on the 38 players in that group who scored fewer than three touchdowns during the first season, 30 of them (78.9%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Of the 12 who scored either one or zero touchdowns, 10 of them (83.3%) found the end zone more often the next season. Jason Avant (2011-12) and Danny Amendola (2018-19) were responsible for the two exceptions.
Last season, 33 WRs/TEs scored fewer than five TDs on 50-plus touches last season, with notables below three scores including Diontae Johnson (0), Chase Claypool (1), Pat Freiermuth (2), Courtland Sutton (2), Hayden Hurst (2) and Robert Woods (2).
We see similar results if we run this test on running backs. There are 32 instances in which a back failed to reach seven touchdowns on 200-plus touches before managing 200 touches again the next season. Of those 32 instances, 26 times (81.3%) the player scored more touchdowns the next season. Interestingly, there were three backs who failed to reach four touchdowns in the first season, but each scored at least seven times the next season (Melvin Gordon III, Ryan Mathews, Lamar Miller). Those three players averaged 9.3 touchdowns in that second season!
Last season, 12 RBs fell short of seven TDs on 200-plus touches, which is a larger sample than usual. Of those 12, four scored fewer than five TDs: Brian Robinson Jr. (3 TDs, 214 touches), Alvin Kamara (4, 280), Tyler Allgeier (4, 226) and Jonathan Taylor (4, 220).
Of the players on that list one year ago, Saquon Barkley leaped from four to 10 TDs and Dalvin Cook from six to 10 TDs.
If you skipped all of the above, or just tuned out while scanning over the math, the point here is simple: NFL players tend to bounce back -- often in a big way -- when they post an unusually low touchdown number and see similar opportunity the following season.
In this piece, I'll be referencing expected touchdowns (xTD), previously labeled as OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.
A careful examination of the 2022 usage for each of the players below tells us that we should expect a boost in scoring production this season.
Be sure to also check out the list of players who will score fewer touchdowns this season.
NOTE: This study is limited to rushing and receiving data for the regular season only.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
2022 TDs: 0; 2023 projected TDs: 5
Johnson is this year's undisputed poster boy for TD regression to the mean. Last season, the veteran WR became the only player in NFL history with at least 85 catches and zero touchdown receptions in a single season. This, after he scored eight TDs in 2022. Johnson was plenty busy near the goal line but failed to haul in any of his 10 end zone targets after converting 9-of-19 in his first three NFL seasons. Interestingly, Johnson was slightly over his head in the TD department during each of those first three campaigns (20 TDs, 14.2 xTD) but put up a goose egg with a 5.8 xTD in 2022. Granted, Johnson was over his head in 2021 (we actually had him projected for four TDs in 2022), but a rebound to four to six scores in 2023 seems probable.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
2022 TDs: 6; 2023 projected TDs: 8
Johnson is a layup call, but a less-obvious candidate for a big boost in scoring is Metcalf. The big man was incomprehensibly held to six TDs last season despite racking up 24 end zone targets, nine more than any other player and the most in a single season since DeAndre Hopkins had 25 in 2017 (Hopkins scored 13 TDs that season). Metcalf caught only five of those 24 end zone targets (8.9 xTD on those plays), and his sixth score required a post-catch run of 25 yards. Prior to 2022, Metcalf had caught a healthy 19 of 48 end zone targets. His 11.0 xTD in 2022 ranked eighth in the entire NFL and actually aligned well with his actual TD output in both 2020 (10) and 2021 (12). Metcalf has never finished a season lower than fourth among WRs in end zone targets and is a strong bet for more scoring in 2023.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
2022 TDs: 4; 2023 projected TDs: 8
Wilson was one of the league's busiest wide receivers as a rookie, but the Ohio State product was able to find the end zone on only four of his 148 targets (sixth most at the position). Wilson tied for fifth in the NFL with 13 end zone targets but was able to corral only two. His other scores required post-catch runs of 1 and 37 yards. His actual TD output was less than half of his 8.1 xTD. The 22-year-old is a candidate for a scoring boost regardless of his quarterback, but having Aaron Rodgers under center figures to lead to a big leap in this department.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
2022 TDs: 5; 2023 projected TDs: 8
Etienne had a productive de facto first NFL season, finishing 10th among RBs with 1,441 scrimmage yards. Unfortunately, his fantasy output didn't follow suit, as his five TDs ranked 31st at the position. Etienne finished 10th among RBs with 10 carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line and also saw an end zone target (there were only 52 of them by RBs last season), which helped him to a healthy 9.2 xTD. Assuming similar usage in 2023, Etienne is a strong bet to find the end zone more often.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
2022 TDs: 4; 2023 projected TDs: 10
Injuries played a part in Taylor's drop from 20 TDs in 2021 to four in 2022, but he was also a bit unlucky in that department. After exceeding his xTD in both 2020 and 2021 (combined 32 TDs and 25.5 xTD), Taylor fell short of his 5.9 xTD in 2022. Taylor scored on 12 of 30 carries within 5 yards of the goal line and added six additional rushing TDs from farther out in 2021. Last season, he scored on three of four carries within 2 yards of the goal line, and his only other rushing TD came from 66 yards out. Taylor, who led the NFL with 26 carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line in 2021, could lose some goal line work to Anthony Richardson, but the 24-year-old back is still a candidate for a big leap in scoring.
Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants
2022 TDs: 3; 2023 projected TDs: 6
Waller makes this list for the second year in a row, though he's on a new team this time around. The veteran TD scored nine TDs (7.7 xTD) in 2020 but plummeted to two (5.2 xTD) in 11 games in 2021 before finding the end zone three times (5.7 xTD) in nine games last season. Waller has finished top 10 at tight end in expected TDs and end zone targets in each of the past three seasons despite missing 14 games during the span. The Giants rank dead last in pass TDs over the past three seasons, but the addition of Waller should help with that, so don't be surprised if he doubles his 2022 scoring output.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
2022 TDs: 2; 2023 projected TDs: 4
Granted, he was in a little over his head, but Freiermuth ranked sixth among TEs with seven TDs (5.4 xTD) as a second-round rookie in 2021. He fell back to earth last season, producing only two scores (3.8 xTD) despite a big boost in targets. Though there was clearly some bad luck there, Freiermuth's work near the end zone dipped; he handled seven end zone targets in 2021 but just four in 2022. Pittsburgh's efficiency near the goal line figures to improve in Kenny Pickett's second season, which only adds to Freiermuth's likelihood of a scoring increase.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
2022 TDs: 2; 2023 projected TDs: 6
Sutton was on this same list one year ago and was one of the exceptions who failed to increase his TD total. The veteran WR has scored a grand total of four TDs in 32 games over the past two seasons. Incredibly, he saw a boost in targets, receptions, yards, xTD and end zone targets in 2022 but ended up with two TDs for the second season in a row. Sutton's 13 end zone targets were fifth most among WRs, and he has now reached 11 in three of his four "full" NFL seasons. If Sean Payton gets Russell Wilson and the Denver offense on track, Sutton should be a lock for a big boost in TDs in 2023.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders
2022 TDs: 3; 2023 projected TDs: 5
Robinson appeared in 12 games during his rookie season and ended up with a healthy 214 touches. His efficiency wasn't particularly impressive, and he fell well short of expectations in the TD department (three TDs, 5.4 xTD). Those numbers would look even worse had he not scored on one of his 12 targets (0.1 xTD on those plays). Robinson scored on two of his four carries from the opponent's 1-yard line but failed to find the end zone on any of his other 201 rushing attempts. He's is expected to remain the primary rusher and goal line back (he handled five of the team's seven carries inside the 5-yard line when active last season), so a boost in scoring should be in the cards.
Chase Claypool, WR, Chicago Bears
2022 TDs: 1; 2023 projected TDs: 4
Claypool is quite the curious case. Since scoring 11 TDs on 72 touches as a second-round rookie in 2020, Claypool has produced three TDs on 128 touches over the past two seasons. Granted, he was traded from Pittsburgh to Chicago during the 2022 season, but he still posted career-low marks in touches (55), yardage (510), TDs (1), end zone targets (4) and expected TDs (3.4) despite appearing in 15 games. Chicago traded the first pick of the second round to acquire Claypool, so he's a good bet to be a featured target alongside DJ Moore and Darnell Mooney in 2023. Especially at 6-foot-4, a big rebound in scoring is likely.
Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears
2022 TDs: 2; 2023 projected TDs: 5
Sticking with the Chicago theme, Mooney is a candidate for a career high in TDs with an improved Bears offense set up for a leap forward in 2023. Mooney scored four TDs as a rookie in 2020 (4.3 xTD), five TDs in 2021 (5.4 xTD) and two TDs in an injury-shortened 2022 (3.4 xTD). He has seen at least seven end zone targets in each of his three pro campaigns. With added competition and a 176-pound frame, Mooney's TD upside is limited, but doubling his 2022 output is still very much attainable.
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Fantasy football: Jamaal Williams, George Kittle among players who will score fewer TDs in 2023
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALFootball statistics can prove hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
The 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 versions of this article provide overwhelming evidence.
There are 97 names in those pieces and, in 89 cases, the player scored fewer touchdowns the following season. That's an absurd hit rate of 91.8%. Five exceptions came during the historically offensive 2018 and 2020 seasons (not to mention that four of Taysom Hill's nine scores came during his four unexpected starts at QB). Last season, the piece correctly identified 17 of 18 TD dippers, with Tyler Lockett the lone exception. Even if we cross off players who barely saw the field, the hit rate remains extremely strong.
This is far from surprising, as we've learned over the years that players simply cannot sustain extremely high scoring rates. It's not a knock on their talent. Scoring is simply more about opportunity.
You want proof? Good, I have it.
During the 2011 to 2021 seasons, there were 214 instances in which a player totaled 10 or more touchdowns as a rusher or receiver. Of those players, a whopping 177 (82.7%) scored fewer touchdowns the very next season and the average change was a decrease of 5.1. Of the 52 instances in which a player scored 14-plus touchdowns, 50 (96.2%) scored fewer times the next year (average dip of 8.5). The only exceptions were Todd Gurley (19 in 2017, 21 in 2018) and Marshawn Lynch (14 in 2013, 17 in 2014).
Every player who scored 14-plus touchdowns in 2021 found the end zone less often in 2022: Jonathan Taylor (20 to 4), Austin Ekeler (20 to 18), James Conner (18 to 8), Joe Mixon (16 to 9), Cooper Kupp (16 to 7), Damien Harris (15 to 3), Deebo Samuel (14 to 5) and Mike Evans (14 to 6).
Last season, Ekeler (18), Jamaal Williams (17) and Davante Adams (14) made up the list of players who reached 14 offensive TDs.
As if that's not enough to help us predict touchdown regression, we also have expected touchdowns (xTD), previously labeled as OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.
A careful examination of each of the below player's 2022 usage tells us that we should expect a drop in scoring production this season.
Be sure to also check out the list of players who will score more touchdowns this season.
Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.
Jamaal Williams, RB, New Orleans Saints 2022 TDs: 17; 2023 projected TDs: 7
Williams led the NFL with 17 TDs last season and it was legitimate -- he was also first in expected TDs (15.7) and his 28 carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line were eight more than any other player. Of course, Williams entered 2022 with 21 career TDs and his TD rate last season more than tripled his prior rate. Though he was barely over his expected mark, history tells us that his goal-line usage is all but a lock to take a nosedive. Since 2021, 20 of 21 players who scored 17-plus TDs in a single season scored fewer the following year, with an average dip of 9.7 TDs. A decrease is especially likely with the move from Detroit to New Orleans, so don't be surprised if Williams' TD total is cut in half in 2023.
Williams might be the obvious choice as the poster boy for this article, but Kittle has a strong case. The veteran TE scored on a tight end-high 12.8% of his targets last season, which was nearly triple his prior career rate (4.3%). He had never cleared six TDs in a season before finding the end zone 11 times in 2022. Kittle ranked second among tight ends with a career-high 10 end zone targets, but as his 5.9 xTD suggests, he was still way over his head. Kittle will need to offset inevitable TD regression with a boost in volume (not a lock in a crowded offense) and improved durability (two-plus missed games each of the past four seasons) if he hopes to repeat as a top-3 fantasy TE.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers 2022 TDs: 11; 2023 projected TDs: 5
Williams might be the obvious choice as the poster boy for this article, but Kittle has a strong case. The veteran TE scored on a tight end-high 12.8% of his targets last season, which was nearly triple his prior career rate (4.3%). He had never cleared six TDs in a season before finding the end zone 11 times in 2022. Kittle ranked second among tight ends with a career-high 10 end zone targets, but as his 5.9 xTD suggests, he was still way over his head. Kittle will need to offset inevitable TD regression with a boost in volume (not a lock in a crowded offense) and improved durability (two-plus missed games each of the past four seasons) if he hopes to repeat as a top-3 fantasy TE.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers 2022 TDs: 18; 2023 projected TDs: 12
From 2011 to 2021, 33 players scored 15-plus TDs in a single season. All but one (Todd Gurley 2017-18) scored fewer TDs the following season. Ekeler has been a TD machine over the past two seasons (20 TDs in 2021, 18 in 2022), but even two years of defying the odds is not enough to justify expecting a similar result in 2023. Ekeler's 13.3 xTD last season was well below his actual output and, while that's still a large number (third highest in the NFL), he was limited to eight carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (17 players had more).
Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders 2022 TDs: 14; 2023 projected TDs: 7
Adams' 14 TDs last season marked the second-highest total of his career (18 in 2020). The veteran receiver enjoyed a ton of volume (second in the league with 178 targets and third with 14 end zone targets), but his TD output was still well above his expected mark (8.9). Adams will remain heavily targeted, but with Derek Carr out and super conservative Jimmy Garoppolo in, the star receiver figures to see more high percentage looks, but perhaps fewer TD opportunities.
Miles Sanders, RB, Carolina Panthers 2022 TDs: 11; 2023 projected TDs: 6
Sanders wins the 2022 award for "biggest overcorrection." A headliner on the "More TDs" version of this article last year, Sanders inexplicably scored zero TDs on 163 touches (4.5 xTD) during a 2021 season in which his former team (Eagles) led the NFL with 25 rushing TDs. Sanders entered 2022 as an obvious regression-to-the-mean candidate and proceeded to score 11 TDs on 279 touches (7.6 xTD). Sanders would've been a good bet for a dip in scoring even if he re-signed with the Eagles, but now in an inferior offense in Carolina, he very well could see his TD total cut in half in 2023.
Taysom Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints 2022 TDs: 9; 2023 projected TDs: 4
Hill's unique, jack-of-all-trades role allowed him to score seven TDs on 96 carries, two TDs on 12 targets and two TDs on 19 pass attempts last season. For the purposes of this exercise, we're focused only on rush and receiving TDs, and Hill's nine in that area were well above his 4.4 expected mark. He didn't actually see much goal-line work (three carries inside the opponent's 7-yard line) and required runs of 8-plus yards on five of his seven rush TDs (he had seven such TD runs in his career before 2022). Hill has continued to defy math in the TD department (seven-plus scores in three of the past four seasons), but it's tough to justify betting on such an unsustainable pace, especially with him likely to play a lesser role at QB (Derek Carr), RB (Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, Kendre Miller) and TE (Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau).
A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles 2022 TDs: 11; 2023 projected TDs: 7
This one might raise some eyebrows considering Brown has scored at least nine TDs in three of his first four NFL seasons. However, a deeper look at the numbers tells us to proceed with caution. Brown's 6.5 xTD in 2022 -- his first year with the Eagles -- was a career high, but also well below his actual output. Brown handled a career-high 11 end zone targets and has never finished higher than 12th among WRs in the category. Brown's hyperefficiency makes this one risky, but at least a small drop in scoring seems probable.
Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys 2022 TDs: 12; 2023 projected TDs: 10
Pollard might seem like a strong candidate for a boost in scoring after the offseason departure of Ezekiel Elliott, but 12 is a tough number to reach either way. Pollard entered 2022 with 10 career TDs (7.8 xTD) on 399 touches, but made the leap to 12 scores (5.9 xTD) on 232 touches in his fourth season. He scored seven of his nine rushing TDs on runs of at least 7 yards, which tied for most in the league. His expected TD total was 1.6 on his 185 carries from that 7-plus-yard distance, which shows the unsustainability of that scoring rate. He also caught three TDs after totaling two scoring receptions during his first three pro campaigns.
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns 2022 TDs: 13; 2023 projected TDs: 10
Chubb is one of the best rushers in the game, but it's nonetheless an easy call to project a step back in scoring after he produced a career-high 13 TDs in 2022. Although Chubb does most of his damage on the ground (12 TDs, 7.7 xTD), he added one score in the passing game after totaling there during his first four NFL campaigns (two during his rookie season in 2018). Chubb has produced at least eight rush TDs in all five of his NFL seasons, so while a dip is expected, he remains a strong bet to push for double digits.
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears 2022 TDs: 7; 2023 projected TDs: 4
Kmet is another candidate for last year's "biggest overcorrection" award. In 2021, Kmet ranked 14th at tight end in both expected TDs (4.5) and end zone targets (six) but was not one of the 61 tight ends who scored a TD that season. In 2022, Kmet saw the same number of end zone targets and actually had a lower xTD (3.0), but leapt to seven TDs. His 9.9% TD rate was third highest among TEs. Barring a big boost in scoring from the Chicago offense and/or a leap in targets, Kmet figures to slide a bit in 2023.
Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints 2022 TDs: 7; 2023 projected TDs: 4
A converted wide receiver, Johnson found his way onto the fantasy radar as a pass-catching TE in 2022. Most of that damage came in the scoring department, as the 2022 UDFA ranked third at the position in TD receptions (seven), but 18th in targets (65). Johnson was well above his 3.4 xTD and four of his scores required post-catch runs of at least 10 yards (those four plays totaled a 0.13 xTD). Johnson is a good bet for a dip in 2023 and that was the case even before the addition of Foster Moreau.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers 2022 TDs: 8; 2023 projected TDs: 5
Aiyuk caught a career-high eight TDs in 2022 despite ranking 25th among WRs in targets (114) and 51st in expected TDs (3.7). Interestingly, he was limited to only three end zone targets (two TDs), but was targeted while within 9 yards of the goal line nine times (four TDs). The 25-year-old caught exactly five TDs during his first two seasons, and while he did rush for two scores as a rookie in 2020, he has no TDs on seven carries over the past two seasons. Barring a massive leap from second-year QB Brock Purdy, Aiyuk should see a TD dip in 2023.
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers 2022 TDs: 9; 2023 projected TDs: 6
Watson enjoyed one of the most notable TD-scoring stretches of the 2022 season. After barely seeing the field during Weeks 1 to 9 (one TD during the stretch), the then-rookie stepped into an every down role in Week 10 and proceeded to score eight TDs in his next four games. The regression bug took over from there, however, as he was held without a single score during his final four outings. Watson is a clear breakout candidate this season, even with a dip in TDs a strong possibility.
Others:
- Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
- CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
- Jahan Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders
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Field Pass: Top storylines, rookies, sleepers for 2023 fantasy season
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALThere comes a point every summer, typically in the middle of August, when a wave of text messages pours into my phone from friends and acquaintances who are just starting to prepare for their upcoming fantasy football drafts.
Initially, it's befuddling that there are people who exist who do not comb through fantasy research during the offseason; and then I remember that my existence of perpetually thinking about fantasy football makes me the outlier in life.
This column is for those who don't have notifications on for Adam Schefter's X (formerly known as Twitter) page during free agency or those who didn't spend the months of March and April breaking down Jahmyr Gibbs' college tape. This column is for those who allocate much of their time during the offseason to more conventional priorities, such as parenting, travel, golf, watching several seasons of "Survivor" in succession -- whatever it is you love to do most.
With August now upon us, we're just a few weeks away from the busiest time of the year for fantasy football drafts, which often hover right around Labor Day weekend. If you've dedicated little time to your offseason preparation, bookmark this page and keep it handy until your draft room opens and you are on the clock. Fantasy football class in in session.
Whom should I take first?
Far and away the question I am asked the most during the offseason is, "Who should I take with the No. 1 pick in the draft?"
There are years when the answer is straightforward, and there are others when multiple players have a compelling case. This year is more the latter.
My top pick would be Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson. I feel great about his outlook (I know, I know, I'm going out on a limb with that one), and the case against Jefferson is not at all about Jefferson himself. It's just that there are other players with similarly justifiable profiles for that first pick. My take on the other top players:
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams: Remember him? Kupp played in eight full games in 2022 and averaged more than 100 receiving yards with seven touchdowns in that span. He should pace the NFL in catches this season, and when I've asked defensive coaches who have faced Kupp about why no team seems to have an antidote for him when the Rams lack other top-level playmakers, the answer has been ... no answer. He's uncoverable.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers: The king of fantasy over the past two seasons with 38 total touchdowns, Ekeler should continue to thrive in 2023. One element observers around the league want to watch: Does his passing-game usage change under Kellen Moore, a coordinator with a known preference to attack downfield? Still, Ekeler is so elite.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers: McCaffrey and Ekeler lead the charge among pass-catching running backs, with McCaffrey expected to be the focal point of a dynamic 49ers offense once again. While defensive coaches who have faced a Kyle Shanahan-led offense note how much he loves his backfield balance, McCaffrey is the outlier.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs: It felt silly to ask, but in an informal poll of coaches and personnel around the NFL, not one person thought Kelce's game had regressed at all at age 33. I mean, could you not tell yourself? There is no greater positional edge than Kelce's at TE. He has remained the surest bet in fantasy in recent years.
Offseason moving and shaking (non-rookie division)
While there are still moves that will take place between now and the start of the season, most of the football business is behind us. Let's run through a handful of the biggest moves of the offseason and dive into what it means for those involved.Aaron Rodgers traded to the Jets: The four-time MVP will play for a new team for the first time in his career, and I'm convinced he'll bounce back from last season's dud (he did not score 20 fantasy points in any single game) for the simple fact that he's noticeably energized by the change. Rodgers is a borderline top-12 quarterback this season, as his upside is limited compared to the more mobile quarterbacks and those with better supporting casts. However, his top target -- Garrett Wilson -- is my favorite pick for breakout player of the year in fantasy ... and that's after he was named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year last season! He's a borderline top-10 wideout going into the season.
For Green Bay, good luck finding anyone who knows exactly what to expect out of Jordan Love with just one start in three years, but we know he has some raw natural talent that led to him being taken in the first round. I also know that second-year wide receiver Christian Watson is too good to ignore, as he profiles as another breakthrough player despite the quarterback change. While Watson smashed last season in the touchdown department, he's a reasonable bet to see his volume of targets explode as much as any player in the league compared to last year's mark. Volume plus talent wins in fantasy, and Watson has both.
The GOAT retires for good: Tom Brady hung up his cleats after the greatest career in the history of the sport, leaving Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask to compete for the Bucs' starting job. While Brady had a frustrating final season in 2022, neither Mayfield nor Trask inspires the confidence the legend did under center. While Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have been fixtures early in fantasy drafts, the outlook is dampened this year. Though new Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales is calling plays for the first time and we'll learn a lot about his style this season, speaking to people around the league, they expect Tampa Bay to play a more balanced brand of football after Brady set the record for single-season pass attempts in 2022. Between less volume and a quarterback change, Godwin's and Evans' upside is lower this year. I've got Godwin rated higher because of expected volume as a top-20-or-so wideout, with Evans closer to WR30 on my board.
Lamar stays, OBJ joins him: Lamar Jackson has a chance to be a lifelong Raven after signing a massive five-year contract with the team, but just a few months ago that seemed uncertain when he revealed his request to be traded. Not only will Jackson be sticking around, but he's joined by Odell Beckham Jr. after the veteran wideout inked a one-year deal worth up to $18 million, giving Baltimore its biggest-name receiver since Jackson became the starter. The team doubled down on receiver investments by using a first-round pick on Zay Flowers, creating a potentially dynamic group that also includes 2021 first-rounder Rashod Bateman. With a new scheme under Todd Monken that promises to be more aggressive in the passing game, this offense could be among the best in the league. I'm bullish on Jackson given his health and the end of the contract dispute, while Beckham is my highest-ranked Ravens wideout as a top-35-ish consideration.
Step on up, Pollard and Mattison: Tony Pollard and Alexander Mattison were each fourth-round picks in the 2019 NFL draft, and both have their best shot to be undisputed starters this season. Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook were both released, paving the way for Pollard and Mattison to have career seasons. Pollard has shown himself as a fantasy star over a full season, as he was the eighth-highest-scoring back in 2022 and should easily surpass the 200-carry mark this season (193 is his current career high). Mattison doesn't figure to have quite the upside Cook had in Minnesota, but he's a good bet for a significant workload in a fantastic offense. Pollard is a fringe top-10 running back, and Mattison is around RB20 going into the season.
Calvin Ridley returns: The Jaguars made the shrewd move to trade for Ridley prior to last season's trade deadline, as he's now reinstated following a full-year suspension for betting. He adds to an already excellent Jacksonville offense, but knowing how much value he -- and every other Jags wideout -- will have is a bit trickier. At his best, Ridley is the most talented pass-catcher on this roster, but will he return as the same player he was? Are there enough targets for him to challenge to be a top-10 wide receiver? If so, does that mean that Christian Kirk and/or Zay Jones become just fringe players who are better served on benches? My best guess: Ridley becomes the most valuable receiver, with Kirk still a weekly top-30 consideration and Jones as elite roster insurance.
Rookies of Note
Every year, a few rookies make a legitimate impact in fantasy football and can help alter the landscape of the league. This year is no exception, as there is a rookie who might wind up first overall in some drafts. Let's dive into some of the most notable rookies, starting with Bijan Robinson.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons: Robinson is the best running back prospect and most anticipated rookie for fantasy football purposes since at least Saquon Barkley, who went second overall in the 2018 NFL draft and finished as the second-highest-scoring player in all of fantasy, trailing only Patrick Mahomes during his 50-touchdown season. The No. 8 pick out of Texas is incredible as both a runner and a receiver, opening the door to a rookie season with well over 300 total touches. I have zero doubt about his talent and capabilities, the only question to be answered is how much the Falcons will use him. Recent top investments for the team have yielded slightly better than modest returns so far (Kyle Pitts and Drake London), but getting the running back the ball is among the easiest chores for a playcaller. Robinson is a top-five running back play and a first-round pick for me this year, with the chance for him to be the runaway winner of the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions: The Lions snagged the best pass-catching running back in this year's draft with the 12th selection, as Gibbs now teams with David Montgomery to take over the backfield led by Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift last season. Presuming the Lions immediately take advantage of Gibbs' receiving acumen, it sets a high floor for him in fantasy, as every running back with more than 50 catches last season finished as a top-20 scorer for the season. Montgomery's presence mitigates Gibbs' goal line chances and overall rush total, but I have Gibbs ranked inside my top 20 this preseason.
Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings: There was an unprecedented run on first-round wide receivers, as four straight were taken from picks 20 to 23, concluding with Addison to Minnesota. Addison steps into the lineup to replace Adam Thielen and will immediately reap the benefits of playing opposite of Justin Jefferson in a pass-happy offense (Kirk Cousins was fourth in the NFL in total attempts last season). Addison is my pick for the most valuable of those four straight picks (Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks; Quentin Johnston, Chargers; Zay Flowers, Ravens), with scouts being won over in the draft process by his pristine route-running, football IQ and solid run-after-catch skills.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts: It is not hyperbole to state Richardson has some of the best physical traits for any quarterback prospect in decades, and the Colts were swinging for the fences with the No. 4 pick in the 2023 NFL draft. What remains to be seen is whether he starts right out of the gate and whether he has enough polish as a passer (he completed just 53% of his passes in 2022 at Florida) to guide an effective offense. But Richardson's impressive tools (6-foot-4, 244 pounds and a 4.43 40-yard dash) empower him to be one of the best runners at the position right away. In 2022, there were nine quarterbacks to rush for at least 300 yards. Of those nine, only Marcus Mariota (15.1) failed to average at least 17.9 fantasy points per game. Fantasy stardom might be a season away for Richardson, but it won't surprise me if he has several boom games this season.
Positional overviews
Let's rip through the four primary positions with a broad brush that covers a few topics per spot.Quarterback
Theme: While for many years we have espoused the virtue of depth at the quarterback spot, the position seems more divided than usual this year. Given the young stardom in the league, there are seven or eight signal-callers who seem like sure things this season. In 2022, so many legendary veterans underachieved (Brady, Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, etc.) that the reverberation could include fantasy managers paying a greater premium to take a quarterback early this year. It won't surprise me if Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts all go in the first 25 picks of most drafts.
Biggest question: Can Rodgers, Deshaun Watson or Wilson reestablish themselves as elite fantasy quarterbacks? Each had modest production last season but has proven capable of being a top-five fantasy quarterback for a full season. Perhaps it's just the offseason optimism, but each seems due for a bounce-back season.
Potential regression: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins. I'm a Tagovailoa backer (he's my No. 11 QB right now), but his 2022 season was a bit of two tales: Tagovailoa shredded defenses prior to the team's Week 11 bye, but in his five games after the bye against stiffer competition, he had zero top-12 weekly finishes. The AFC East includes three elite defenses he'll face twice each this season.
Possible sleeper: Desmond Ridder, Falcons. Mobility is a strong trait for Ridder, who should see running opportunities this season, and Atlanta has a strong offensive line and three blue-chip-level skill players. The Falcons have been boring on offense the past two seasons, but this a potential liftoff year.
Running back
Theme: As always, the question is about the cutoff point for reliable running backs. I like to think of players in tiers (don't worry, I'll still rank them!) and after the elite tier of running backs (five or six players), there are about six or seven more I feel very confident in, and then another six or seven I view as likely starters each week. Put differently, I feel good about 20 or so running backs.
Biggest question: What happens with Jonathan Taylor? For the majority of the offseason, the questions surrounding Taylor were strictly limited to: Can he bounce back and look like his 2021 self again? In the opening days of training camp, a very public and seemingly unfriendly battle has unfolded between his camp and the Colts over a possible contract extension, leading to a trade request. While I believe a trade will be difficult to execute (and the Colts have stated they won't oblige), these are now legitimate questions: Will Taylor still be a Colt? And, if so, will he play all 17 games?
Potential regression: Josh Jacobs, Raiders. Not enough for me to move him too far down in my rankings, but Jacobs led the NFL in touches with 393 last season and for players not named Derrick Henry, such a workload has often led to regression the following year. In 2023, Jacobs could still see 75% of his workload from last season and finish with nearly 300 total touches, a number that should lead to very good fantasy production. This is about regression from the possible RB1 in all of fantasy.
Possible sleeper: Rashaad Penny, Eagles. The stars could align for the talented Penny, as he now has a chance to lead the Eagles in rushing attempts while playing behind arguably the best offensive line in football. Potential restrictions on his value are the presence of Jalen Hurts as a goal line runner and D'Andre Swift (among others) also seeing work, but there's a feasible scenario in which Penny rushes for 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Wide receiver
Theme: Star power. There is just an incredible amount of receiver talent in the NFL right now, as I could make a compelling case for seven receivers to finish as WR1 this season (Jefferson, Kupp, Ja'Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb). And the positional depth extends far beyond just the top of the board, as there are receivers it feels downright inequitable to not have in my top 20.
Biggest question: What happens to the Bucs' receivers in the post-Tom Brady era? While Trask and Mayfield competing for the starting position doesn't inspire major confidence, we spent last offseason fretting about the outlook for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett with Geno Smith under center. Smith was a revelation, and Metcalf and Lockett balled out. Can the Bucs' receivers hold on to their fantasy stardom?
Potential regression: Diontae Johnson, Steelers. Remember, regression to the mean can have a positive connotation as well. Johnson made history in 2022: He had more catches (86) and targets (147) than any player in NFL history to not score a single receiving touchdown. Johnson is very talented, has an ascending quarterback in Kenny Pickett and is due in a major way.
Possible sleeper: Elijah Moore, WR, Browns: The 2021 second-round pick showed promise as a rookie when he posted 43 catches for 538 yards and five touchdowns with the Jets. Now in Cleveland, he has a chance to thrive as the Browns' WR2 behind Amari Cooper with his versatility and playmaking from the slot.
Tight end
Theme: It's Kelce's world ... still. It almost seems like Travis Kelce deserves his own positional designation, as he lapped the rest of the tight end field with 100.9 points more than any other player at the position in 2022. Kelce has shown no signs of slowing down and remains by far the No. 1 target in a fantastic Chiefs offense. While there are other great options at tight end, the security and positional edge afforded via Kelce is too good to ignore. That includes a case for Kelce as the top player selected in your draft.
Biggest question: Can Darren Waller break through again? The stars have aligned for Waller to have a massive season, as he was traded to the Giants to be their No. 1 target in the passing game. The G-Men lacked a player with Waller's dynamic middle-of-the-field skill set and size, setting him up for a substantial role if he can stay healthy and Daniel Jones remains on the trajectory set last season.
Potential regression: Evan Engram, Jaguars. This one pains me to write, as Engram was just terrific in the second half of last season (32 catches in his final six games) and has so much ability, but the Jaguars are loaded with pass-catchers after the reinstatement of Ridley. Engram also had five games last season with exactly one catch, a reminder that there is only one football to go around.
Possible sleeper: Chigoziem Okonkwo, Titans. The Titans' second-year tight end flashed in 2022, as he led all TEs in yards per catch (14.1) and seven of his 32 catches resulted in big plays (defined as at least 20 yards). The athletic profile is intriguing on its own for Okonkwo, but when multiplied by his standing as the clear-cut starter for Tennessee this season (Austin Hooper played a legitimate role last season) and the Titans' thin group of pass-catchers, Okonkwo's breakout potential is easy to see.
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Fantasy football: Eight players with surprisingly high ceilings
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALEach summer, I go through my PPR rankings and focus on players with explosive play juice and overall fantasy upside. We know about the Tier 1 players, such as Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and more. Fantasy stars. The Round 1 picks in your home leagues, right?
However, let's go a little deeper, with an eye on some of my favorite players who have a higher fantasy ceiling than you might think. I'll hit on multiple position groups here. Quarterbacks with top-five upside, along with two dual-threat running backs. Plus, we'll look at the wide receivers with big-play chops and a couple of tight ends who are still lying in the weeds based on their current projections.
So, let's get into it. Here are the players on my "All-Ceiling" team, starting with Trevor Lawrence, who is primed for a breakout season in Jacksonville.
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Playing in Doug Pederson's system, one of the best schemes I studied on tape, Lawrence has top-five upside in 2023. He averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game last season, with four games of 20 or more points in the second half of the Jags' schedule. He made a jump there. Plus, don't forget about his mobility on scrambles or designed runs. Lawrence finished the year with 291 rushing yards and five TDs on the ground. He can attack the edges of the formation with his legs.Remember, the Jags' passing game could get a real bump with Calvin Ridley in the mix. He's an explosive receiver and a refined route runner, and he gives Pederson another target -- along with Christian Kirk and Evan Engram -- who can be schemed up in quarterback-friendly concepts for Lawrence. Add that to Lawrence's development last season, including his tightened mechanics, and the arrow is pointing up here. He should be in line for a potential breakout season.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
I see a realistic path for Fields to post a top-three finish at QB this season because of his rare dual-threat ability and a more prolific passing game in Chicago. Fields averaged 19.8 fantasy points per game, with two breakout games of 39 points or more. He led all quarterbacks with 1,143 yards rushing via designed carries and scrambles, many of which were explosive plays. Fields also logged 17 rushes of 15 yards or more (tied for third most in the league).Now, will we see a boost in Fields' passing totals this year? He topped the 200-yard mark just twice last season. The addition of wide receiver DJ Moore helps. He's a physical catch-and-run target with ball carrier vision on middle-of-the-field throws, screens and under routes. We should expect Fields to see things better from the pocket in his second season with Matt Eberflus and Luke Getsy. The Bears' play-action/bootleg game will put Fields in a position to attack voids in defensive schemes with more production as a dropback passer on tap.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
The Patriots brought in Leonard Fournette and Ezekiel Elliott for visits during camp, so we need to keep an eye on potential roster moves. However, if Stevenson remains the No. 1 back for New England, he has the ceiling to make a push to the midtier RB1 ranks. Stevenson's downhill power jumps out on tape. He has light feet to work through the wash or make defenders miss and also has upside in the passing game. Stevenson checked in at 14.6 PPR points per game last season, rushing for over 1,000 yards and totaling 69 receptions -- in a Patriots offense that lacked an identity.Stevenson does need to see more low red zone work, as he posted just 12 carries last season inside the 5-yard line and had only three red zone rushing TDs. Bet on Stevenson's talent in a new offense under Bill O'Brien, which will use running backs in the route tree. And with his dual-threat ability, give me Stevenson over Travis Etienne Jr., Joe Mixon and Aaron Jones when I'm on the clock.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
Maybe Gibbs is a little too obvious here but not when we talk about his breakout potential and ceiling as a high-end RB2 this year. Gibbs has home run juice, as he posted 25 rushes of 10 yards or more at Alabama last season, along with six receptions of 20 yards or more. If he gets loose, he can erase pursuit angles in the open field.Now, let's look at his skill set, especially in the passing game, and project that to the Lions' offense. Gibbs can run the entire pro route tree from backfield alignments, with the flexed splits outside the formation. That is clear in his college tape, and the matchup advantages will be there in the pros. Remember, he can press the edges as a runner behind Detroit's offensive line and totaled 104 receptions in three college seasons. I'm in on Gibbs as an offensive playmaker in his rookie season.
Wide Receivers
Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
Dotson flashes the big-play ability, vertical separation speed and sudden movement traits to make a real jump in his second year. He logged 35 receptions for 523 yards and seven touchdowns in 12 games as a rookie last season and also posted seven games of double-digit PPR production, including four of his last five games played.There is some concern with Dotson's knowledge of the route tree (42.3% of the routes he ran as a rookie were verticals). It is hard to create consistent fantasy production on deep-ball throws, but if we see more targets on unders, pivots, crossers and speed outs this year, Dotson has the ability to produce after the catch. That's why I'm in on him as a WR3 with upside this season.
Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys
Cooks is very undervalued at this point in the summer. He sits at WR35 in my PPR rankings, and I'm probably still a little bit too low on him. Cooks had availability issues last season because of injury, and he is not a prolific red zone target. But let's look at the upgraded Cowboys offense Cooks jumps into this season and his explosive ability on the perimeter.Last year, in a subpar Texans offense, Cooks still managed to grab 57 receptions for 699 yards, with seven games of double-digit PPR production (13 games played). Now, put him in the Cowboys lineup, as the potential No. 2 target opposite of CeeDee Lamb, with Dak Prescott throwing the ball. We know Cooks will stretch defenses at the third level (35.2% vertical routes run last season), but I also believe he will be deployed as a midlevel option and on quicks and screens underneath. Given the team upgrade for Cooks, I see him as WR3/Flex who should log more than 100 targets in Dallas.
Tight Ends
Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos
I'm going a little deeper with the tight end tiers, starting with Dulcich and evaluating his college tape at UCLA, plus the flashes we saw in his rookie season as a seam stretcher. Dulcich, who had a vertical route rate of 26.4% last season, posted double-digit PPR production in five of his 10 games played in a disjointed Broncos offense.With new head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays in Denver, look for Dulcich to be aligned as a flexed tight end/power slot to work the seams, in addition to the middle-of-field targets, unders and red zone throws from Russell Wilson. And, if you wait on drafting tight ends (like I do) or play in deeper leagues, I see Dulcich as an upside play in a Broncos offense that should be much more efficient in the passing game this season. That could translate to low-end TE1 numbers for Dulcich.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans
When projecting Okonkwo, let's focus on his final six games of last season. During that stretch, he caught 21 of 25 targets, with four games of 10 or more PPR points. He's a really easy and fluid mover on tape, which does create matchup advantages against linebackers and safeties (from multiple alignments). With veteran tight end Austin Hooper out of the mix in Tennessee, Okonkwo enters camp as the clear No. 1 for the Titans.Like Dulcich, you are playing the upside here with Okonkwo, in an offense that will use the tight end in the passing game. Look for heavy play-action opportunities with quarterback Ryan Tannehill to open second-level voids, plus the catch-and-run targets that cater to Okonkwo's skills. That raises the fantasy ceiling for a player currently ranked as a midtier TE2.
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Fantasy football players to avoid: The Do Not Draft list
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALFantasy football managers and Las Vegas Raiders fans loved what RB Josh Jacobs achieved last season. Jacobs had been a solid statistical performer during his first three NFL seasons, twice ending up an RB2 and once slipping into the top 10 among season scorers at his position, but he was never a superstar. Certainly not like he was in 2022.
Last season, Jacobs played at a superstar level. Sans a long-term contract and in what could have been his final season with the organization, the Raiders gifted him with ridiculous volume and Jacobs thrived. No player had more touches, rushing yards or yards from scrimmage. Only two running backs --Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey -- and nine players scored more PPR points.
This is a trap, fantasy managers. Jacobs entered last season an RB2 option, playing for a new deal he did not get. Perhaps you have heard, but he's not the only angry, bitter running back in the league. Teams are financially cautious with the position. Jacobs isn't pleased. He's not at training camp and is a risk to sit out regular-season games.
However, even if Jacobs were signed long term and happy, he was unlikely to replicate his fantastic season with another 300-plus PPR points. Sure, we love the big volume while it is happening, but we have myriad cases of running backs failing to approach their numbers -- volume or efficiency -- the following season as proof of it, and it makes Jacobs a prime player to avoid at his current top-20 position in ESPN average live drafts.
Entering 2022, a mere eight running backs received 310 or more rushing attempts in a season (big volume, for this era) over the past decade, and here are their results the next season.
- LeSean McCoy topped 310 rushing attempts in consecutive seasons (2013, 2014) and never did so again. The Eagles traded him to the Bills in 2015, and he missed four games. He enjoyed one more RB1 season.
- DeMarco Murray ran wild for the 2014 Cowboys, handling 392 rushing attempts. He was an Eagle the next season (replacing McCoy), and he could not stay healthy (8 starts, 193 rushing attempts). His final season was 2017.
- Adrian Peterson, then 30, rushed 327 times for the 2015 Vikings. A series of injuries kept him to 13 games over the next two seasons, as he jumped from team to team. He never approached 300 touches again.
- Ezekiel Elliott enjoyed his best season as a rookie in 2016, and he missed six games the following season. He rebounded to sneak past 300 rushing attempts in 2018 and 2019, but never had an efficient season like 2016 again. At 28, he is currently looking for work.
- Le'Veon Bell topped 300 rushing attempts one time, in 2017, and then he held out for a bigger contract and sat out the next season. He played three more seasons for four teams, never again a fantasy factor.
- Dalvin Cook slid past 310 rushing attempts over 14 games in 2020, and the next season, in one fewer game, he had 63 fewer attempts and more than 100 fewer PPR points. As with Elliott, as of this writing, he is not with an NFL team.
- Derrick Henry used his 378 rushes to sail past 2,000 rushing yards in 2020, and then he missed half of the 2021 season because of injury. He bounced back nicely last season, but unlike others on this list, plays little role in the passing game, and is quite a bit larger than the others.
- Jonathan Taylor was fantasy's best player in 2021. Let's just say he was not fantasy's best player in 2022.
Also, perhaps we should be writing a positive article about Derrick Henry, for he is the rare exception of a player who can handle large volume year after year, topping 300 rushing attempts in three of four seasons. He remains effective, likely in part to his build. The other running backs have not held up as well. They get hurt. They see their volume fall. They are not as effective.
Give Jacobs full credit for last season, when he played through myriad injuries, but things are different now. The Raiders remain uncommitted to him long term but are far more likely to share his usage, assuming he even suits up in Week 1. There is real risk here. Jacobs also seems far more likely to sit games to nurse injury, too. It hardly means Jacobs will be a notable bust, as he was a solid RB2 choice his first few seasons, but those choosing him over a top-end wide receiver might regret the move.
Here are other players fantasy managers should be wary of selecting at their current ADP spot. After all, who wouldn't take Jacobs in Round 4 or 5? It's all about value.
Top and Second Quarterbacks
Nothing against awesome Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes, awesome Bills star Josh Allen and awesome Eagles star Jalen Hurts -- yes, we admit they are quite awesome -- but there is little justification for using a top-20 pick on a quarterback in a one-quarterback format. Don't do it. You might not wish to wait as long as I do to choose a QB -- good ones are there in Round 10 or later -- but too many safe, top flex options (RB/WR) are available in Rounds 2 or 3 to take a quarterback that early, and the pickings get slim after Round 5.Later on in drafts, we should have reservations about Dolphins starter Tua Tagovailoa remaining healthy, Panthers rookie Bryce Young becoming consistent and reliable so soon and Cardinals runner Kyler Murray even playing in an NFL game before mid-October, as he recovers from major knee surgery. However, there's plenty of other good quarterbacks to draft, and with so much depth (Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith), there isn't even any need for a second QB in standard leagues; just wait for the bye week. Take traditional flex depth instead.
Running backs coming off ACL tears
While history isn't kind to running backs such as Jacobs coming off major volume, it is similarly discouraging for running backs with surgically repaired knees, at least in their first season back. Jets rookie Breece Hall is going to have a hard time flirting with RB1 status -- he is the No. 12 RB off the board -- if he misses September games, and he certainly might. The Jets have made no secret of their flirtations with veteran RBs such as Elliott and Cook. It's a sign. Draft Hall in 2024.
Exciting Bronco Javonte Williams tore his ACL and MCL a few weeks prior to Hall going down, but it is a more serious injury with different, longer rehabilitation, and the franchise is hardly guaranteeing Williams will play in September. The difference here is Williams is not being selected among the top 30 running backs in ADP. Round 10 is fine for him, if he lasts. Round 6 is not.
Running backs with adjusted situations
Going in ADP order, I have reservations about new Panthers starter Miles Sanders, longtime Saints pass-catcher Alvin Kamara, Eagles acquisition D'Andre Swift and Lions newcomer David Montgomery.Sanders flourished behind Philadelphia's elite offensive line, and as with others mentioned previously, the team had little intention in keeping him around, so it was not concerned about high volume. Now Sanders, who hasn't caught 30 passes in any of the past three seasons and has struggled to remain healthy, must play with a rookie QB and with an average offensive line. As noted by colleague Mike Clay, Sanders' touchdown output seems likely to crater. Sanders is likely not an RB2.
The other running backs do catch passes, but Kamara should see a decrease in rushing volume with former Lions TD maker Jamaal Williams (17 TDs!) and TCU rookie Kendre Miller (third-round pick) joining the team. Kamara will also miss the first three games of the season while serving a suspension.
Swift is one of the Sanders replacements in Philadelphia, so he gets the elite offensive line but might find it difficult to amass volume with former Seahawk Rashaad Penny and incumbent Kenneth Gainwell soundly in the mix. Penny has struggled to stay healthy, but so has Swift. A timeshare is good for the Eagles, who plan to play football deep into January, but not so much for fantasy managers.
Montgomery joins the Lions to likely handle the Williams role as touchdown maker after four pseudo-productive seasons with the Bears, where he was generally a flex option for fantasy. However, the Lions drafted Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round, and there is no need for them to be patient with his volume. Montgomery might struggle to find volume of his own.
Rookie wide receivers
Four wide receivers were picked consecutively in first round of the NFL draft: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks), Quentin Johnston (Chargers), Zay Flowers (Ravens) and Jordan Addison (Vikings). Each was an outstanding college player, and gets to play with a solid, veteran quarterback. Still, look at history as a guide. The Jets' Garrett Wilson and Saints' Chris Olave played well, but they finished as WR3 choices. Relying on a rookie receiver as a potential flex option is often a mistake. The Vikings' Justin Jefferson is an exception, not a rule.Receivers with questionable QBs
Buccaneers star Mike Evans is the obvious one, as whomever wins the starting job is a far cry from retired Hall of Famer Tom Brady. Chris Godwin is the safer Tampa Bay WR option for fantasy. Meanwhile, we don't know who starts under center for the 49ers, making Deebo Samuel a risk. He was already a risk because of missed games and far fewer carries after Christian McCaffrey joined the team. Former Panther DJ Moore joins the Bears, a team that was last in the league in pass attempts. Former Cardinal/Texan DeAndre Hopkins has been limited by injury and suspension the past two seasons, and now gets Ryan Tannehill as his QB. Good luck.
Old, broken-down wide receivers
Fantasy managers continue to be fooled by Saints veteran Michael Thomas, who has played in only 10 games the past three seasons because of a variety of injuries and surgeries. His MVP campaign from 2019 is a long time ago. Similarly, the Ravens might believe Odell Beckham Jr. can recapture his once-legendary form, but his last WR2 season came in 2016 and his new QB Lamar Jackson is hardly known for his throwing. Taking Thomas or Beckham in the first 10 rounds is a mistake.
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Fantasy football: Jaylen Warren leads the 'have skills, need opportunity' team
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALOpportunity and consistent usage are keys to producing weekly numbers in fantasy football. But for some players, those opportunities can be limited by a variety of factors. Maybe there's a proven vet at the top of the depth chart. Or a backfield rotation that limits offensive touches. And we still have training camp competitions that will determine roster spots.
In what has become an annual piece for me in early August, I'll break down eight players who possess game-ready traits but need that opening to generate viable fantasy production in your lineups. Let's check out the "have skills, need opportunity" team heading into the 2023 NFL season.
Running back
Warren is one of my top insurance backs in fantasy. He is behind Najee Harris but has shown the ability to play a productive role when he sees offensive touches. On 77 rushes last season, Warren averaged 4.9 yards per carry, with 11 runs of 10 or more yards. There's some juice here with Warren on the tape, too. Downhill quick, with the burst to attack the perimeter. Now, I don't see Warren as a dynamic threat in the pass game, but he did log 28 receptions last season as an underneath outlet on swings and checkdowns. You can target Warren as a late-round pick in leagues of 10 or 12 teams as that insurance play in case of a Harris injury, or as a potential contributor in deeper formats if his overall volume starts to climb.
We don't have much pro tape on Ford (only eight offensive touches as a rookie), but the traits are there for the second-year pro to potentially lock down a defined role as the No. 2 in Cleveland behind Nick Chubb. As with Warren, you would be targeting Ford in the later rounds as an insurance back. I do believe, however, that Ford can emerge as a receiving option in this Browns offense, in addition to his open-field speed/big-play chops. He's a natural hands catcher out of the backfield, with the body control to adjust on throws outside of his frame. And with Kareem Hunt, who saw at least 44 targets in three of four seasons with the Browns, out of the mix in Cleveland, the door is open for Ford to bring some PPR value to your lineup in deeper leagues. Just keep an eye on the status of his hamstring injury, which occurred in practice on Monday, Aug. 7.
Let's keep an eye on Johnson throughout camp because he could emerge as a downhill hammer in a run-heavy Chicago offense. Last season at Texas -- playing behind Bijan Robinson -- Johnson averaged 6.0 yards per carry and 3.9 yards per carry after first contact. With his decisive, bruising running style, you can get Johnson rolling on a north-south track to showcase his second-level power. Plus, with his physical profile at 6 feet, 219 pounds, and his willingness to challenge blitzers in pass protection, Johnson could earn more reps as a potential receiving outlet for quarterback Justin Fields. Yes, the Bears' running back room also features Khalil Herbert, D'Onta Foreman and Travis Homer, but that's why Johnson is a prime candidate for this piece. And he's been a draft target of mine in 12- and 14-team leagues.
Wide receiver
Shaheed's recent groin injury in camp will need to be monitored during the next week, however the tape from 2022 tells us he could have some deeper-league upside as a slot target. The game speed jumps here. Shaheed can roll. Look at the receptions at the third level of the defense or the catch-and-run targets underneath. He's explosive at multiple levels of the field. Shaheed averaged 17.4 yards per reception last season on 28 grabs, with five games of double-digit PPR production. Now, the Saints' wide receiver depth chart is headlined by Chris Olave and Michael Thomas. Given Thomas' availability concerns, however, Shaheed should be on your fantasy radar this summer in an upgraded New Orleans pass game led by quarterback Derek Carr.
Shakir saw minimal usage in the Bills' pass game as a rookie, logging just 10 receptions on 20 targets. But there is a path here for Shakir to secure the No. 3 role during camp behind Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. And despite the low totals he posted in 2022, we have to focus on his traits and potential deployment for one of the league's highest-scoring offenses. With motion/movement ability to see the ball on manufactured touches (backfield, jet sweeps, screens), plus alignment versatility as a receiver, Shakir could post a spike in volume and overall usage, which makes him one of my favorite late-round draft targets in deeper PPR formats.
In the two games last season in which Jennings saw at least six targets, he posted double-digit PPR production. So, this is really about volume for the 49ers' No. 3 receiver behind Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. And we know Jennings can uncover in the 49ers' route tree. Last season, Jennings caught 35 passes, with 23 of those receptions accounting for first downs. He's a competitive, short-to-intermediate target who can win one-on-one or see the ball on schemed play-action throws in Kyle Shanahan's system. Given the 49ers' pass-game usage with tight end George Kittle and running back Christian McCaffrey, however, Jennings might see only around 50 targets this season. But if Samuel or Aiyuk misses time with an injury, the door could open up for Jennings as a viable fantasy option in deeper leagues.
Over Hodgins' final five games played in 2022, he posted at least 14 PPR points in four. We saw Hodgins targeted on quick-game throws, deeper in-breakers and outside fade balls, and he caught 25 of 32 targets during that five-game stretch. He's a true boundary option for quarterback Daniel Jones. But with New York adding tight end Darren Waller and rookie wide receiver Jalin Hyatt, plus a host of slot receivers to compete for roster spots in camp, the fantasy outlook on Hodgins is pretty cloudy. The end-of-the-season production, however, should keep Hodgins on the radar. And the tape backs it up.
Tight end
We all know that Likely sits as the Ravens' No. 2 tight end behind Mark Andrews. Baltimore also elevated its wide receiver room with Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers. But with the Ravens running a new passing system under coordinator Todd Monken, one that will create more space vertically and horizontally, Likely could jump into the TE1 mix if Andrews misses game time with injury. Likely posted 373 yards and three touchdowns on 36 receptions during his rookie season. Plus, he can be deployed as a flex target in a new offense that will better use his receiving skill set and ability after the catch.
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Fantasy football Ultimate Draft Board: Perfect picks for every round
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALFantasy football drafts are all about collecting the best possible values, but we all know those special players exist who we want badly on our squad.
Whether it's the young, up-and-coming wide receiver on our favorite team, a sleeper running back no one is talking about or this year's big breakout at tight end, these players add an extra level of excitement to the roster construction process.
This round-by-round analysis will give you an idea of what's going through my head on draft day, headlined by those players I have circled on my cheat sheet.
For a more philosophical look at the 2023 fantasy football landscape, including strategies for drafting, trading and working waivers in all types of formats, be sure to check out the 2023 fantasy football playbook.
Here it is, my personal recipe for a 2023 fantasy football championship:
The core
When I'm making my selections in fantasy football, I often ask myself a question: "Am I drafting this player at his ceiling?" If the answer is yes, I generally aim for someone with more upside. Of course, all of the players available in the first round or so are likely at or near their ceiling, so this is an opportunity to not overthink it and simply take the best available player on the board.Round 1: Justin Jefferson ... or best available player
Most years, the top running backs stand out at the top of drafts and it's easy to grab one or two of them and feel good about ourselves. This is not one of those years.Consider: Over the past five seasons, there have been only three instances of an RB age 28 or older finishing top 15 in fantasy points. That's a hit rate of 4%. Austin Ekeler (28), Derrick Henry (29), Aaron Jones (28), James Conner (28), Dalvin Cook (28) and Alvin Kamara (28) are all 28 or older entering the season, with Christian McCaffrey (27), Nick Chubb (27) and Joe Mixon (27) also in the danger zone. That scares me a bit and has me leaning into a) star wide receivers early; and b) fading top veteran RBs and instead targeting younger backs undervalued in drafts.
That being said, this exercise is always tricky for Round 1 because draft slot will determine who is available. If I land the No. 1 pick, I'm rolling with Jefferson. If I pick second, I'd have a hard time passing on Ekeler despite my age concerns, but I'd also be content sticking with the WR theme and snagging Ja'Marr Chase. I'm simply going to take the top player on my board, knowing that while I'll feel more comfortable leaning wide receiver, I can still come away with a strong lineup if I go RB (Ekeler and McCaffrey being the top options).
In fact, perhaps the most fun (fantasy is supposed to be fun, right?) first-round investment this season is rookie RB Bijan Robinson. Is it logical to select a dude who has never played a single NFL snap with your first pick? I think so, especially considering that all six RBs drafted in the top 10 since 2011 have finished top-10 in fantasy points as rookies (Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott were top-two). I'm pumped any time I can land Robinson in the mid-to-late stages of the first round.
By the way, if I can't get Jefferson or Chase at wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb and Davante Adams (who can often be had early in Round 2) are on my radar, especially if I'm picking closer to the turn.
Round 2: Garrett Wilson
Wilson is the player I don't want to miss out on in 2023 drafts and he's certainly attainable if we're picking in the early-to-middle portion of the second round. That may seem high for a player yet to deliver a top-20 fantasy campaign, but Wilson was extremely impressive as a rookie, ranking sixth among receivers in targets, albeit underwhelming in the TD and catch rate departments due to some of the league's worst QB play. With Aaron Rodgers in-house, the 2022 first-round draft pick of the Jets is primed for a massive leap -- perhaps to the elite tier -- in his second season.Along with Wilson, the aforementioned Adams, as well as Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jaylen Waddle are terrific second-round WR targets. At RB, Henry feels like a solid value in the middle of the round. The big three at QB (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts) will often cost a second-round pick this year and that's a tough draft price to justify considering the terrific options we have at RB and WR.
Round 3: Travis Etienne Jr.
The third round is loaded with talent across running back and wide receiver, as well as Mark Andrews at tight end. The path we take here will likely depend on our choices in the first two rounds, but the good news is that we have plenty of viable options.One of my favorite targets is Etienne, who can generally be had near the Round 3/4 turn. The Clemson product carried over his elite collegiate efficiency to the pros and produced fringe RB1 production last season despite horrific touchdown luck (five actual TDs, 9.2 expected). Even with third-round rookie Tank Bigsby in the fold, the 24-year-old Etienne is positioned for another leap in an ascending Jaguars offense.
Not feeling Etienne? Josh Jacobs (monitor his holdout), Rhamondre Stevenson, Najee Harris, Mixon and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs are the other available RBs in this range. As noted, WR is strong here as well, with Chris Olave, Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf, Keenan Allen and Deebo Samuel the highlights.
Round 4: Lamar Jackson (or another QB in this tier)
Our options at running back and wide receiver start to lose appeal in this range, so it's not a bad time to consider pouncing on a very intriguing tier of quarterbacks. Jackson is my top choice here, especially with Baltimore expected to lean more on the pass after adding Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers. Durability has been an issue for Jackson, but he has remained a top fantasy QB when healthy, ranking fifth in PPG prior to his Week 13 injury in 2022. He's on the short list of QBs with a real chance to lead the position in fantasy points this season.In addition to Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields and Justin Herbert also sport top-three upside and are viable targets.
In years past, the fourth round has been a great area to attack wide receiver, but with receivers being selected earlier than ever, this area of the draft is pretty even in terms of RB and WR options. If I decide to wait on QB, Breece Hall (assuming he remains on track for an early-season return) is my favorite target. Aaron Jones is another RB on my radar, as are WRs Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley and Jerry Jeudy. T.J. Hockenson is the only tight end I'd consider, but as I'll get to shortly, I have my eyes on a much better value at that position.
Round 5: Christian Watson
Watson is one of my favorite breakout players this season and his name is permanently circled on my cheat sheet. The 2022 second-round pick for Green Bay barely played early in his rookie campaign but was 10th among receivers in fantasy points once he was handed every-down snaps in Week 10. Yes, Aaron Rodgers is gone, but Watson should be force-fed touches considering how young and inexperienced the team's options are behind him.There are a lot of RBs going in this range I do not care for at draft cost, including Kenneth Walker III, Cam Akers, Javonte Williams and J.K. Dobbins.
Round 6: Rachaad White or Dameon Pierce
The only reason I might pass on Watson occasionally is so I can make sure I get White, another one of my favorite 2023 breakout players. The 2022 third-round pick for Tampa Bay has replaced the departed Leonard Fournette as the team's lead back (with little competition for work) after a solid rookie season in which he ranked 11th among RBs in receptions.
If I miss on White, I'll pivot to an even more overlooked option in Pierce. Also entering his second season, Pierce was 14th among RBs in fantasy points prior to a season-ending injury suffered late in 2022. Houston's offense is ascending (especially the O-line) and will surely rely plenty on the run game with rookie QB C.J. Stroud learning the ropes.
I also like James Cook in this range, though his rising ADP is a concern considering his ceiling might be limited a bit by the presence of Damien Harris and an offense that doesn't throw to the RB position much.
If I don't pick an RB, I want to get my hands on WR Diontae Johnson and I'm also monitoring top TE options selected in this range, including George Kittle, Dallas Goedert and one of my favorite post-hype targets in Kyle Pitts. I'd be more aggressive in my pursuit of Pitts if not for the TE value I'll get to in the next round.
The middle rounds
OK, so the core of my team is in place. It's time to start filling gaps and adding depth. I obviously want players with upside, but I also want guys I feel comfortable placing in my Week 1 lineup. We'll save the high-risk fliers for later.Round 7: Darren Waller
The seventh round is weirdly one of my favorite hot spots in 2023 drafts and that's especially the case at quarterback and tight end, with Deshaun Watson and Waller both popping as major values. Waller is the heavy favorite to lead the Giants in targets this season and it's surprising he's so much cheaper than the likes of Kittle, Goedert and Pitts. Waller has produced two career top-three fantasy campaigns, whereas that trio has three of them combined (all via Kittle). Similarly, Watson -- who was a top-five fantasy QB in three straight seasons prior to missing 2021 and most of 2022 -- has elite upside, but can be had several rounds later than players with similar outlooks.RBs Conner and Alexander Mattison are fine options in this range if you're looking for a flex option. At wide receiver, perpetually underrated Marquise Brown is an excellent target, as are breakout candidates George Pickens and Jahan Dotson, both of whom I'm definitely trying to get plenty of exposure to this season.
Round 8: Treylon Burks
The eighth round is an interesting one, with a mix of breakout players and solid/underrated veterans. I'm highlighting Burks here, even with DeAndre Hopkins in the fold, as the 2022 first-round pick remains positioned for a solid target share and has the raw talent to make a big leap to "weekly starter" territory. I'm also hoping one or both of Pickens and Dotson are here, but I also could look to other young WRs like Jordan Addison and Skyy Moore, though the latter's ADP is rising quickly as he locks down a starting job.In terms of veterans, WRs Courtland Sutton (on the rise with Tim Patrick officially out for the season) and underrated Brandin Cooks (perhaps Dak Prescott's No. 2 target in a good Dallas offense) are on my radar.
An interesting wild card in this range is Alvin Kamara. The veteran RB's ADP took a big hit due to the uncertainty of a suspension throughout the offseason, but it ended up at three games -- a bit shorter than most anticipated. Kamara's ADP now figures to rise, but if the receiving specialist remains available in this range, he's a player I'll pounce on.
Round 9: Antonio Gibson
We're officially in dart throw territory and the analysis here is similar to last round: I'll be picking my favorite solid/underrated veteran or taking a shot on a breakout candidate.I choose to highlight Gibson here because, well, I can't quit him and because, based on my picks thus far, I'm in need of some RB depth. Gibson is expected to form a two-man committee with Brian Robinson Jr. and while that may limit Gibson's carry total and goal line work, he's expected to be a featured player, especially in the passing game, in new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy's offense.
If I'm still quarterback or tight end shopping, Daniel Jones and Pat Freiermuth are my top targets in this range.
Round 10: Wild card
No one really jumps out to me in this range, so in an ideal world, someone we discussed in the earlier rounds will fall this far. If not, this is a good time to fill a lineup void or grab another breakout player.I often consider Michael Thomas in this area. While he's missed most of the past three seasons, he's healthy now and was very productive in three games last season (16-171-3 receiving line). This is a small price to play considering his upside. Samaje Perine is a name to monitor, as his ADP is falling with Javonte Williams trending closer to a Week 1 return. Zach Charbonnet is also on my radar, as he's arguably the most valuable insurance RB in fantasy.
The late-round fliers
At this point, our starting lineup is likely full, which means it's time to look for values and upside for our bench.Round 11: Jakobi Meyers or Odell Beckham Jr.
Recent ADP shows that, at this point in the draft, a lot of the most appealing, young breakout players are already off the board. Some intriguing late-round dart throws remain, but we can get them a bit later.In the meantime, there are a few underrated veterans available in this range. Meyers has stood out like a sore thumb all offseason as a player who projects much higher than his ADP. Yes, Adams is the No. 1 receiver in Las Vegas, but there will be plenty of volume available in an offense that figures to throw often considering its shaky defense. Meyers has posted back-to-back top-30 fantasy campaigns and made a big leap in scoring last season (six TDs). Beckham may not be available every week -- he's played two full seasons in his career and was out all of 2022 -- but odds are he'll, at least, be a top-30 weekly option (and perhaps Lamar Jackson's top target) when healthy. That makes the 31-year-old well worth a pick in the double-digit rounds. They say money talks, and both Meyers and Beckham are among the top-30 highest-paid wide receivers in the league.
If I'm aiming for more of a young/upside flier here, WR Nico Collins and TE Chigoziem Okonkwo are options.
Round 12: Kenny Pickett
Don't mind me as I repeat the same thing I wrote in this area of the 2022 version of this article as the case to draft Trevor Lawrence: Over the past five seasons, we've seen a barrage of high-pedigree QBs make the leap to fantasy QB1 status (some to elite status) in their second season. That list includes Carson Wentz in 2017, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in 2018, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in 2019, Kyler Murray in 2020, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts in 2021 and, of course, Lawrence in 2022. Many of these quarterbacks were available in the late rounds of drafts, which in hindsight, doesn't make much sense. Pickett was the only QB selected in the first round of the 2022 draft, he adds value with his legs and he'll have the benefit of an improved supporting cast. A sure thing? No. Worth the flier? Of course.If I don't need a QB, I'm looking to recently paid TE Cole Kmet, who has top-10 upside but is available shockingly late in drafts. At wide receiver, Rondale Moore has a path to a hefty target share with only Marquise Brown ahead of him on the depth chart.
Rounds 13-14: High-ceiling insurance and breakout candidates
ADP starts to go out the window late in the draft, so now is the time to get our favorite late-round sleepers and breakout candidates.Here are the players I will be considering with my final few picks:
Quarterback fliers: I generally select one quarterback, especially since a lot of solid QB2 options will go undrafted in most formats. The aforementioned Pickett aside, I'm not super interested in many late-round flier QBs this season. I'll be keeping an eye on Kyler Murray, however. If he's able to return early in the season, he'll prove to be a major value.
Running back insurance: I won't go too in depth here as I already ranked the top 10 insurance RBs, but the headliners available this late include Devin Singletary, Kendre Miller, Jaylen Warren, Tank Bigsby, Tyjae Spears and Jerome Ford. I'm also monitoring Roschon Johnson's progression in a seemingly wide-open Chicago backfield.
Wide receiver veterans: With teams using more wide receivers than ever before, there are always notable, high-floor veteran wideouts available late. DJ Chark Jr. is easily my favorite player in this category, as he's perhaps Carolina's No. 1 wide receiver and can be had with one of our final picks. Also on my radar are Michael Gallup, K.J. Osborn, Chase Claypool and Parris Campbell.
Young wide receiver fliers: Despite the comfort of a safe veteran receiver, I'm typically aiming for more upside here. That said, rookies Jonathan Mingo, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Marvin Mims and Michael Wilson, as well as Jameson Williams, Tyquan Thornton, Alec Pierce, Isaiah Hodgins, John Metchie III, Wan'Dale Robinson (keep an eye on his ACL recovery) and Rashid Shaheed are among the youngsters I'm happy to stash on the end of my bench. I could expand this list even further, but as a simple rule, we should have our eyes on first- and second-year receivers who were Day 1 or 2 NFL draft selections.
Tight end options: There are always a few interesting late-round TE fliers of note. The best available this year are rookie Dalton Kincaid, Jelani Woods and -- should Zach Ertz miss time to open the season -- Trey McBride.
Rounds 15-16: Kicker and D/ST ... or more breakout candidates!
We're assuming a 16-round draft here, so this is the point where league rules come into play. If you're drafting here at ESPN, you'll be forced to select both a defense and a kicker (I'll cover my favorite targets at those spots later).However, if there's flexibility, this is a spot where we can gain a leg up on the competition. Most of our leaguemates are going to select at least one kicker and defense and let them rot on their roster until Week 1.
Why? I have no idea. Don't do that.
In lieu of those positions, I will gather up insurance policies at other positions (especially running back) and wait for injuries to strike during the preseason. If I have the Ravens defense rostered and Derrick Henry goes down for the season, I have the Ravens defense. If I have Tyjae Spears rostered and Henry goes down, I have a potential RB2/flex. Oh, and I can always drop two players and pick up a defense with a good matchup and a decent kicker just prior to Week 1. By the way, if your league is hosted here at ESPN (why wouldn't it be?), one way around the draft room restrictions is to cut your kicker and defense after the draft in favor of adding more of the high-upside stashes mentioned in Rounds 13 and 14.
Defense/Special Teams
History has taught us over and over again we should never reach on D/STs. In fact, five of the past six top-scoring fantasy D/STs finished ninth or worse the following season. That includes the 2016 Vikings, 2017 Jaguars, 2018 Bears, 2019 Patriots and 2020 Rams (the 2021 Cowboys finished fourth in 2022). Be smart. Just don't do it.
The 49ers, Bills, Dolphins and Steelers top my D/ST rankings, but since I like to stream, I'll also be looking at the Ravens, Commanders, Jaguars and Falcons, as each has a relatively light Week 1 opponent (all four could be facing a rookie QB).
Kickers
This is as simple as picking the top guy left on the board. Justin Tucker, Daniel Carlson, Evan McPherson, Graham Gano and Harrison Butker are the best five options, but don't reach on any of them. Prior to Carlson repeating last season, the last No. 1-scoring kicker to finish in the top 10 the following season was Matt Bryant in 2017.
So, there you have it. My game plan for a 2023 fantasy football championship. Remember, this piece should not serve as your only draft board. It's simply the players I've found myself targeting and, with ADP in mind, that I would love to have on my squad this year.
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Fantasy football 'do draft' list: Aaron Rodgers among undervalued players
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALPerhaps you heard the news, but future Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers is no longer a member of the Green Bay Packers. He joined the New York Jets this offseason. It wasn't really in the news much, so it is quite understandable if you missed it. Some fantasy football managers may have, since Rodgers is not among the first 10 quarterbacks or 100 picks in ESPN average live drafts. OK, so Rodgers wasn't his normally awesome statistical self during last season, but he was far from bad. Rodgers was the No. 13 QB in PPR leagues!
Rodgers is well-positioned to be a top-10 quarterback this season, which is why I ranked him precisely this way. The good news is this is not a popular opinion, so Rodgers slips in drafts. I choose to wait on quarterbacks anyway, and Rodgers seems to be ending up on my teams around the spot others are choosing a defense. Hey, it works for me. Last season was the first full one in which Rodgers did not finish as a top-10 fantasy QB. He is 39 years old. Some believe he is done. Perhaps, but then again, perhaps not yet.
That is what the annual "Do Draft" column is about. Click here for the far more controversial "Do Not Draft" column, in which readers tend to ignore the premise and think I hate some of the top players in the sport. Nope! This is all about value in relation to expected statistical results. Some players slip well past the point of my expectations and how I rank them, for whatever reasons, and that makes for wise investing. Rodgers was a top-five fantasy QB in 2021 and 2022, winning league MVP honors each time. He is not too old. Expect greatness again.
The Jets won seven games last season despite truly terrible quarterback play, with Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and Mike White each starting four or more games. Someone named Chris Streveler started a game! Still, the Jets sniffed a playoff spot thanks to one of the stingiest defenses in the sport. It should be successful again and now the offense boasts a quarterback who, despite numerous obstacles in his final season in Green Bay, threw for 3,695 yards and 26 touchdowns. That was the worst full season of Rodgers' career. He had a running game, but no receiver caught more than 60 passes or approached 1,000 receiving yards.
That changes this season, as exciting Garrett Wilson becomes a top-10 wide receiver thanks to considerably better than competent quarterback play. Wilson caught 83 passes for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns his rookie season. He saw 13 end zone targets, but caught only two of them. Not his fault. The Ohio State product is ready to emerge as a WR1 star. It is a huge upgrade for Wilson, and for Rodgers, who gets a top option to target again, like when he had Davante Adams. The Jets have a running game, with several excellent options. They can properly protect Rodgers. They are coached well, they defend well. This will be a positive situation.
Here are other players that keep showing up on my fantasy football teams, and I recommend they show up on yours as well.
Quarterback
In ESPN 10-team standard leagues, there is little reason to invest in a quarterback in the first five rounds. There are so many viable fantasy starters! Build proper depth at the flex-eligible positions first. Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is always one of my selections for this column, an annual top-10 statistical finisher few seem inclined to target. Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks seems unlikely to place among the top five in fantasy again, but he is slipping too far in drafts. So is the Denver Broncos' Russell Wilson and Detroit Lions' Jared Goff. These are established passers with solid options, and better situations surrounding them.In superflex formats, or those in which a fantasy manager can (and should) utilize multiple active quarterbacks, the aforementioned options go earlier in drafts, as does Indianapolis Colts rookie Anthony Richardson. He is the first-year QB to target because of his running ability. Pittsburgh Steelers second-year option Kenny Pickett isn't exactly a Michael Vick-type runner, but he should surpass 400 rushing yards and score more rushing touchdowns, and new Packers starter Jordan Love boasts these skills as well. New Orleans Saints starter Derek Carr and the Las Vegas Raiders' Jimmy Garoppolo are more than competent for multi-QB formats.
Running back
Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry is going in the first round of some, but hardly all, drafts. He belongs in Round 1 for all of them. Yes, the "R" in PPR stands for receptions and Henry is not prolific in that sense, but he caught more passes last season (a career-best 33) than notables Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor, Kenneth Walker III, Dameon Pierce and Miles Sanders, among others. Henry is durable, scores myriad touchdowns and still is somehow underrated in fantasy.The Packers' Aaron Jones, Steelers' Najee Harris and New England Patriots star Rhamondre Stevenson seem to have settled nicely into the fourth round of ADP, a round after top-10 RB options, but I think each of them is worthy of being your first RB should you target wide receivers and TE Travis Kelce early. Volume and pass-catching is key. Jones caught 59 passes. Harris should bounce back to at least that number, as he did as a rookie. Stevenson caught 69 passes, and the team's recent acquisition of Ezekiel Elliott does not alter his expected volume. These are underrated players.
As for touchdown production, few believe Saints free agent acquisition Jamaal Williams will score another 17 touchdowns, but he should see enough volume to have another productive season, especially with Alvin Kamara suspended for the first three games. Williams has become quite a bargain after the first 10 rounds of ADP, as are overlooked but potential starters Samaje Perine (Broncos) and Khalil Herbert (Bears).
Kansas City Chiefs veteran Jerick McKinnon will catch more than 50 passes again. He was a top-20 RB last season, but he is going 38th in PPR formats. Reminds me of former Patriots pass-catcher James White. Fantasy managers crave numbers, but they do not need to come on rushing attempts. McKinnon should go several rounds earlier than he is currently going.
Wide receiver
Unlike at running back, where it is rather easy to poke holes in nearly every top-20 option, the top wide receivers come with fewer questions. This makes them safer and more reliable. Minnesota Vikings star Justin Jefferson and Cincinnati Bengals star Ja'Marr Chase are the first players off my board in standard formats, and even if I invest in one, I remain likely to go wide receiver with at least one of the next two picks. Don't be afraid to double up on a specific team, either. Miami's Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both awesome. So are Philadelphia Eagles wideouts A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.Some overlook Denver Broncos veteran Jerry Jeudy because he has yet to catch as many as 70 passes in a season or reach 1,000 receiving yards, but this is the year. New coach Sean Payton will get veteran signal-caller Wilson on track. Jeudy will shine. I am also a big fan of Saints second-year option Chris Olave. There is WR1 upside with Jeudy and Olave. Stop relying on older options such as DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas.
Later on, I seem to be accumulating shares of the Steelers' Diontae Johnson (he will score at least five TDs this season), the Seahawks' Tyler Lockett (always underrated), the Dallas Cowboys' Brandin Cooks (hasn't failed to hit 1,000 receiving yards in his first season with a team yet!) and the Atlanta Falcons' Drake London (his QB will improve). If you must take a rookie, I go with the Los Angeles Chargers' Quentin Johnston.
Tight end
Travis Kelce is awesome, essentially a top-five wide receiver, and with little reason to expect lesser results this season. Still, I admit I tend to wait at tight end until after Round 10, since so many of the choices after the first several are so similar. Streaming is a solid option here. I like the value of the Houston Texans' Dalton Schultz, Chicago Bears' Cole Kmet and Rams' Tyler Higbee, and I think most are undervaluing the Titans' Chigoziem Okonkwo, whom I select as a second tight end in case the breakout talk is real.Wagerallsports
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Fantasy football: Field's favorites for the 2023 NFL season
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALIf you play in a fantasy football league with me, please don't read this column.
I'll use this space to outline some of my absolute favorite targets in drafts this year, and no, I'm not just talking about Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase.
Every year I find myself gravitating toward certain players, deciding in recent years to tab them "Field's Favorites." If you're looking for a tagline or slogan for your local business, consider me your guy.
These aren't sleepers, players whom you haven't heard of, or anything of the sort. These are most assuredly all players you've heard of and drafted before. These are just players who feel primed for a massive season ahead and whom I keep walking away with during mock drafts.
Let's dive in.
Note: Current average draft positions (ADP) are as of Aug. 23.
Current ADP: 31.8 (WR14)
The unofficial captain of our squad, Olave feels destined for a massive step forward despite an objectively hot start as a rookie last year. Olave is silky smooth as a route runner, has elite speed and has dominated Saints training camp so far this summer. Over the past 15 seasons, Olave's 2.49 yards per route run ranked fifth among all rookie receivers (behind only A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Odell Beckham Jr. and Ja'Marr Chase). While his college teammate Garrett Wilson justifiably earned Offensive Rookie of the Year accolades in 2022, Olave actually led all rookie WRs with 13.2 fantasy points per game. The Saints made a quarterback upgrade by signing Derek Carr this offseason, and the entire offense should be a much smoother operation after a rocky 2022. Olave has a clear path to a top-10 wide receiver season.
Current ADP: 15.6 (RB7)
Pollard was incredible last season for both the Cowboys and your fantasy squad, as he was a top-10 back and surpassed 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career. He's one of the most dynamic players at the position. Last season, he was seventh in yards per attempt (minimum 50 carries) and second in yards per reception (minimum 20 catches) among RBs. Among all players with at least 150 total touches, Pollard averaged the second-most fantasy points per touch (trailing only Austin Ekeler). While it's fair to concede that Pollard's efficiency might stem in part from always being fresh while splitting duties with Ezekiel Elliott, it's worth noting he had the first four games of his career with at least 15 carries last season, suggesting the team believes he's ready for even more.
Current ADP: 49.1 (QB6)
When you're drafting Herbert this season, you're getting him on sale after a down 2022 season plagued by a significant injury to his ribs early in the season, shaky-at-times offensive line protection and a system that took away one of his superpowers in his cannon arm. And despite having what was a disappointing season, Herbert still finished as a top-10 quarterback in eight separate weeks, throwing for more than 4,700 yards and 25 passing touchdowns. Herbert is the only quarterback to ever throw for 4,000 yards in each of his first three seasons and trails only Dan Marino in total touchdown passes through his first three seasons (Marino had 98, Herbert 94). Herbert was fantasy's QB2 just two seasons ago (2021) and rather than belaboring this point with any more stats, I'll just remind everyone that Herbert is incredible.
Current ADP: 119.5 (WR44)
A theme of this article is chasing high-pedigree players. Addison was one of the four consecutive wide receivers taken in the first round of this year's draft, and he's my favorite redraft target due to his talent and role. He won the Biletnikoff Award as the best receiver in college football in 2021 during a season when he was Kenny Pickett's top wideout at Pitt. The Vikings released longtime fixture Adam Thielen this offseason, opening the door for someone to step into a prominent spot opposite Justin Jefferson, and Addison is the leader in the clubhouse. Defenses have no choice but to devise a plan every snap for Jefferson, leaving less attention to be focused elsewhere. That should set up the crafty route runner Addison for bunches of favorable looks. I'm in.
Current ADP: 51.4 (WR20)
Patience is a virtue, and it paid off late last season, when Jeudy got hot in Weeks 14-18 with 33 catches for 458 yards and three touchdowns -- yes, I know they were all scored in one game -- scoring the third-most fantasy points among WRs in that span. Entering last season, there was a thoughtful debate about whether Jeudy or Courtland Sutton ought to be the first Broncos wide receiver taken in fantasy, but Jeudy has emerged as the clear target in 2023. He's a nasty route runner who can get open against seemingly any coverage, part of what boosted his value late in 2022. Jeudy has tantalizing potential, as this Broncos offense figures to take a step forward in 2023 under new coach Sean Payton. One key area where Jeudy has struggled in the past but must not this year is drops. They were too frequent an occurrence when Jeudy was a rookie back in 2020, and a drop in the team's first preseason game was a not-fun reminder. With better ball security, the upside is huge.
Current ADP: 50.4 (TE4)
If you're a tight end not named Travis Kelce, you have at least a bit of risk baked into you, but Waller is one of my favorite options at the position. Let's start with a box that Waller checks but few other tight ends do: He's the player I'd vote as most likely to lead his team in targets. How many tight ends do you feel that's the case for? Kelce, yes, and maybe Mark Andrews. Other than that? Long shots. Waller is an matchup problem who has developed a recent billing as being injury-prone, but that rhetoric didn't follow him in 2019 and 2020 when he played all 32 games, had 197 total catches and went for over 1,000 receiving yards in each season. I get it, we're talking about 2023, but I didn't see signs of major physical decline in Waller when he was on the field last season, and the camp buzz has penciled him in as the most impressive Giant this month. A change of scenery might prove to be the catalyst for a career resurgence.
Current ADP: 66.5 (RB22)
As I sift through the running back options with a direct path to an RB2 season, among the criteria I look for are talent (duh), being the expected carries leader for his team and sufficient-or-better pass-catching. The Panthers gave Sanders a four-year, $25 million deal this offseason, among the best for any back in the entire league over the past seven months. It was a real investment in what was a very cool market for RBs. The Panthers' depth chart is lacking behind Sanders, with Chuba Hubbard as the expected change-of-pace option, and while Sanders was not asked to do much as a receiver in 2022, he has that skill set in his arsenal. Back in 2019, Sanders hauled in 50 catches on 63 targets as a rookie under his now-head coach Frank Reich (then the Eagles' offensive coordinator) and assistant head coach Duce Staley (then the assistant head coach and running backs coach). They know that Sanders can add value as a pass-catcher, with the chance to push for 225-plus rushing attempts and 50-plus catches. Carolina's offensive line is intact from last season and stepped up in run-blocking throughout the year. There are other players on this list with considerably more upside, but I keep finding myself targeting Sanders as one of my favorite RB2 options.
Don't fill out your roster with Corey Davis of the Jets. He just retired at age 28.
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Fantasy football: Matt Bowen's favorite draft targets
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALAfter doing weekly fantasy football mock drafts this summer at ESPN, now is the time when I really start to focus on my top draft targets. Sure, the numbers play a role here. So does the tape. I want playmakers and upside on my roster. And sometimes I just go with my gut based on offensive schemes, anticipated deployment and exceptional traits, which can create fantasy production.
Today, I'm giving you four players per position from my draft board, in multiple tiers. There are quarterbacks with elite mobility, dual-threat running backs, explosive-play pass-catchers, late-round fliers and more.
So, let's get into it. Here are my favorite fantasy draft targets for the 2023 NFL season.
Quarterbacks
Jackson averaged 19.6 fantasy PPG in 12 games last season, in an offense that leaned on reduced formations and multiple-TE sets. However, with new Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken calling the plays in a system that will create much more space for Jackson as both a runner and thrower, I'm all-in here. Even with the availability concerns -- Jackson has missed five games in each of the past two seasons -- his electric, dual-threat traits can be maximized in Monken's spread, trips and empty sets. And Baltimore upgraded the pass-catching talent on the perimeter, too.
With an anticipated boost in Fields' passing numbers, I see top-three upside for a quarterback with his playmaking ability. Fields logged 17 explosive-play rushes last season (15 yards or more), while averaging more than 19 fantasy PPG. He has breakout-game ability, too, after posting games of 39.3 and 42.7 fantasy points in '22. As with Jackson, I'm targeting quarterbacks with mobility much earlier in my mocks. Gotta have it. And the arrival of wide receiver DJ Moore in Chicago gives Fields a prime target -- with catch-and-run juice -- on high-percentage throws in the Bears' route tree.
Lawrence is a breakout candidate who posted five games of 18 or more fantasy points during the second half of last season. It's about the offensive fit for Lawrence in Doug Pederson's QB-friendly system, with triangle reads in the pass game, defined play-action and the schemed unders that create production after the catch. Plus, Lawrence rushed for 291 yards and five scores last season. He can be deployed situationally as a runner (27 designed carries in '22), and he has the movement traits to escape pressure. With wide receiver Calvin Ridley also now in the mix for Jacksonville, Lawrence has pass-catching threats at all three levels of the route tree. If you wait on the quarterback position, I see excellent value at Lawrence's ADP.
One of my top targets as a QB2 in superflex leagues, Goff finished last season with at least 20 fantasy points in four of his final six games played. Goff is a pocket thrower who leans on schemed throws. He completed 71% of his passes and had 18 TDs on play-action concepts in '22. And Detroit will get a bump this season with two rookie pass-catchers in running back Jahmyr Gibbs and tight end Sam LaPorta. Focus on the scheme here, with an offensive front that can protect. And that sets up Goff with clean platforms to distribute the ball and create fantasy production.
Running backs
Robinson is a playmaker who can produce in any game situation and that's why I've been targeting the rookie in as many mocks as possible. Yes, the run-game volume will be there for Robinson, especially on zone schemes. Downhill power to push through traffic, plus the shake in the open field. Robinson averaged 4.1 yards per carry after first contact at Texas. He can go, too. Home run ability here. He also projects as a premier dual-threat back who can separate and create receiving production from multiple alignments. Robinson caught 60 passes for 805 yards in college and I think he will be featured much more in the pass game as a pro. He has the potential to lead all RBs in PPR scoring.
I had Stevenson as high as RB9 in my ranks this summer because of his anticipated rushing volume, plus the pass-catching ability we saw on his '22 tape -- in a very disjointed New England offense. Now, with the Patriots signing Ezekiel Elliott, who is still one of the best short-yardage runners in the league, Stevenson could miss out on goal-line opportunities. That has caused his value to take a slight dip. But I'm still in on Stevenson as a solid RB2. He averaged 13.6 PPG in 2022 and will play in a much more structured system this season under new offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien.
I'm taking the upside with Cook given his pass-catching ability and perimeter speed in one of the league's most explosive offenses. Yes, Cook could lose goal-line touches in Buffalo to Damien Harris or Latavius Murray. But with the Bills expected to deploy more double-TE sets, Cook can play a lead role in the run game while contributing as another target for quarterback Josh Allen. Cook logged only 21 receptions as a rookie, but with an increase in offensive snaps and pass-game usage, he fits as a potential RB2/flex in my lineup.
Warren is a top insurance back behind Najee Harris, and he also has value in deeper leagues because of his usage in the Steelers' offense. Last season, Warren averaged 4.9 yards per carry with 11 of his 77 carries going for 10 yards or more. He logged 28 receptions, too. While I would like to see Warren deployed on more schemed routes, he has the ability to produce receiving numbers out of the backfield. I like the traits here with Warren, and that's why he has been a consistent late-round target for me this summer in 10- and 12-team leagues.
Wide receivers
During his rookie season in '22, Wilson had nine double-digit scoring efforts, including three games with 24 points or more. And remember, he did that with low-level quarterback play in New York. This season, with Aaron Rodgers now running the offense, we should expect a major boost to Wilson's production with a much more efficient and explosive pass game. The playmaking traits are there for Wilson, which includes the sudden movement ability after the catch and the body control to finish down the field. With a numbers bump here, including more touchdowns, I see Wilson as a WR1 in '23.
It's really all about the tape for me on Aiyuk -- in a 49ers offensive system that schemes for fantasy production. He's an explosive mover, with the refined route traits to uncover. And that works in Kyle Shanahan's offense on play-pass throws, plus the formations that create the winnable one-on-ones. Aiyuk caught 78 passes last season and averaged 13.4 fantasy PPG. Even if we see a dip in touchdown production (Aiyuk had eight last season), I still like him for my lineup as a flex/WR3.
Dotson has been one of my favorite targets later in drafts given his ADP, plus the tape and production at the end of his rookie season. Over his final five games in '22, Dotson posted four games of double-digit fantasy production, with a touchdown grab in three of those. He can get loose at the second level and there's plenty of juice here for Dotson to separate down the field. He did miss five games last season, but with an increase in targets this season, Dotson can fit as an upside WR3 in your lineup.
At the beginning of the summer, I tagged Toney as my breakout candidate for this season based on how he would be deployed as a motion/movement player in a Chiefs offense that lives in the red zone. Fly sweeps, screens, the backfield touches -- plus Toney's ability to win in the route tree. It's all about the schemed touches here. The availability concerns with Toney, however, are back again, as he missed the majority of camp with a knee injury. At this stage, teammate Skyy Moore is probably the safer play if you are looking for a late-rounder with breakout ability, but I'm still going to take one more chance on Toney in my drafts. I'm betting on the talent here as a flier.
Tight ends
I rarely jump at tight ends early in drafts. But if I do, it's been Hockenson after watching how he was used in Minnesota's pass-heavy offense. Motion, movement and formation versatility. That allowed Hockenson -- in 10 games played with the Vikings last season -- to average 13 PPR PPG while logging 60 receptions on 87 targets. He can work the dirty areas of the field between the hashes and catch the unders, and he will be schemed open as a red zone target. Hockenson is a Tier 1 tight end on my board.
There are some injury concerns here for Goedert, as he hasn't played a full season since 2018. But at his current ADP, in a high-scoring offense that deploys him as a top-three target, I can roll with Goedert given his fantasy floor. He averaged 11.8 fantasy PPG in 12 games last season and scored in double figures seven times. He's a primary option for quarterback Jalen Hurts on quick RPO throws and we know he can separate or win with leverage when working the middle of the field. The lack of touchdown production -- he hasn't caught more than five in a season -- keeps Goedert out of the top tier at the position, but he's a player I can draft later and still get TE1 numbers.
Freiermuth will have top-five upside if we see that touchdown count climb back to where it was during his rookie season (seven). Freiermuth posted double-digit production in eight of his 16 games played last season, finishing with an average of 9.3 PPG. He's a seam stretcher, with the 6-foot-5, 258-pound frame to box out defenders in the low red zone. The second-year development of quarterback Kenny Pickett works here, too, as Freiermuth can be that high-percentage target between the numbers. And like Goedert, I can wait on Freiermuth in 10-team leagues.
In 12- and 14-team leagues, I consistently eye Kincaid as a late-round target, despite the recent history of rookie tight ends. In Buffalo, we have to see Kincaid as a versatile player in the pass game who can flex outside in multiple-TE sets or even align as a backside X receiver/power slot. He can work the seams and verticals at the third level, catch and run underneath. Kincaid had 70 receptions in his final college season at Utah. I'll take a chance here late with him running routes for Allen in the Bills' offense.
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Cooper Kupp aggravated his hamstring injury originally form August 1st
Questionable for week 1
Questionable for week 1
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Dolphins will not punish Tyreek Hill for Marina incident
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Colts RB Jonathan Taylor remains on the physically unable to perform list and is ineligible to play in at least the first four games of the season.
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Fantasy football Shadow Report: Commanders WRs primed to break out in Week 1
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALBy utilizing our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defense schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start decisions and fantasy advice each week. Fantasy football is a weekly game, so knowing the matchups can also help you make the best waiver wire pickups.
Below are the receivers with the best and worst matchups this week, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.
To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet.
Unless otherwise noted, references to where teams rank in statistical categories adjust to a per-game basis in order to avoid distortion due to bye weeks.
Advantageous matchups
Arizona lost Byron Murphy during free agency and did not replace its top corner. Wilson returns as the team's likely top corner, with 30-year-old journeyman Hamilton and 2022 seventh-round flier Matthew positioned for significant roles. The other candidates here are sixth-round rookie Kei'Trel Clark, UDFA Starling Thomas V and veteran newcomer Kris Boyd. There's risk of the unknown here with QB Sam Howell making his second NFL start, but McLaurin (if able to play), Dotson and Samuel are all positioned well for a big season debut.
The Colts traded Stephon Gilmore, which leaves Moore (who covers the slot in nickel), second-round rookie Brents and 2022 UDFA Baker as the favorites to play most of the corner snaps early this season. The likes of Dallis Flowers (2022 UDFA), Tony Brown (2018 UDFA) and Jaylon Jones (2023 7th) are the other candidates for work. Moore is one of the league's most underrated corners, but he's looking for a rebound campaign after an injury-plagued down year in 2022. Otherwise, this is a situation ripe for the picking for the Jaguars' terrific Ridley/Kirk/Jones trio. Kirk will see Moore most often, so he gets no more than a slight boost, whereas Ridley and Jones get a larger bump.
The Rams struggled against wide receivers last season, and that was with Jalen Ramsey in the fold. Ramsey is gone (as are Troy Hill and David Long Jr.), which leaves Witherspoon, Durant and Kendrick as the favorites to handle most of the CB snaps. Both 2022 Day 3 draft picks, slot man Durant was serviceable in a limited role and Kendrick struggled in a larger perimeter role during their rookie campaigns. Witherspoon and Duke Shelley (signed last week) were two of the Rams' biggest offseason veteran acquisitions and might be counted on for a lot of work this season. The same goes for sixth-round rookie Tre Tomlinson. This is an opportunity for Metcalf and Lockett to get off to a huge start.
The Vikings are in transition at cornerback. Patrick Peterson, Chandon Sullivan, Cam Dantzler and Duke Shelley were the only CBs to exceed 160 snaps played for this defense in 2022 and none remains on the roster. Murphy was a key offseason add and figures to handle the slot in nickel. This means a lot of matchups with Godwin, whom we're upgrading only slightly. Evans (2022 fourth-rounder) and Booth (2022 second-rounder) struggled on a combined 259 snaps during their rookie campaigns. They'll compete for snaps with third-round rookie Mekhi Blackmon and UDFA NaJee Thompson. Evans gets a big boost in the first game of the post-Tom Brady era.
Tough matchups
The Jets return their entire starting trio, which is notable considering they allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers last season. That includes the fewest to the perimeter, which is where Diggs (66%) and Davis (90%) align most often. Diggs posted receiving lines of 5-93-0 (10 targets) and 3-37-0 (five targets), whereas Davis managed lines of 2-33-0 (five targets) and 3-31-0 (four targets) in the two games against New York in 2022. In fact, Josh Allen totaled 352 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs through the air in those two outings. Downgrade the Bills' passing game.
Denver allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to WRs last season (fourth fewest to the perimeter), thanks primarily to the elite play of Surtain. The standout corner shadowed quite a bit throughout 2022, and that included showdowns with Adams in Week 4 (25 of 35 routes, including 24 of 25 perimeter) and Week 11 (19 of 38 routes, including 19 of 23 perimeter). Adams had little trouble in those games, posting a 9-101-0 receiving line (13 targets) in Week 4 and 7-141-2 line (13 targets) in Week 11. This suggests we shouldn't move the needle on Adams, but there's nonetheless some added risk here against one of the league's best defenders. Meanwhile, Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Renfrow get slight boosts against Damarri Mathis and Essang Bassey.
Cleveland has a really good, young cornerback room and that was on display in 2022 when the Browns allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to WRs, including the fewest to the slot. The Bengals return their elite WR trio and the Browns their top three corners from 2022, though we didn't see any full games with all six of these players healthy last season. We did, however, see Ward shadow Chase (27 of 35 routes, including 27 of 28 perimeter) in the most recent game between these teams (Week 14). Chase played well in that game (10-119-1 receiving line on 15 targets) and so, while Ward is a terrific corner, we don't need to adjust Chase's outlook very much here. With Ward on Chase, expect Emerson to travel with Higgins on the other side of the field, with Newsome covering Boyd in the slot.
Howard shadowed quite a bit last season and figures to continue to do so at least as long as Jalen Ramsey is sidelined in 2023. One of those 2022 shadow situations was a Week 14 matchup with the Chargers in which he traveled with Williams on 29 of his 39 routes (28 of 28 perimeter). Williams had Howard's number that day (6-116-1 receiving line), though he was limited to six targets. Howard isn't coming off his best season, but he's one of the league's best talents at the position. Expect these two to face off throughout this game.
Wilson is a strong bet for a 2023 breakout season, but he might have his hands full with one of the league's top corners in Week 1. White was out most of 2022 due to injury, but he shadowed Wilson when healthy in Week 14. White aligned against Wilson on 30 of his 50 routes, including 29 of 30 on the perimeter. Wilson posted a 6-78-0 receiving line on seven targets in the game. Wilson moves to the slot enough (37% of the time in 2022) that we don't need to worry about this a ton (White only plays outside), but it figures to lower his ceiling a bit.
Lattimore is back after an injury-plagued 2022 campaign in which he was limited to seven games. The veteran corner has shadowed top receivers plenty over the years and that includes matchups with Mike Evans and Justin Jefferson early last season. It's not a lock that he'll travel with Hopkins, but especially with Treylon Burks perhaps not at 100% health, it seems like a good bet this week. Lattimore has a history of coming up big against top receivers, so there's reason for mild concern here, but not enough to bump Hopkins down more than a few spots in the rankings.
Cincinnati was very good at slowing wide receivers early last season, but fell off dramatically once Awuzie tore his ACL in Week 8 (coincidentally while shadowing Cooper). Awuzie is back and figures to again travel with Cleveland's top wide receiver. Prior to leaving that Week 8 meeting, Awuzie covered Cooper on 9 of his 13 routes, including all eight on the perimeter, and Cooper was held without a catch on two targets. That's a small sample, so we don't need to panic here, but don't be surprised if Cooper starts the season slowly.
Other notable downgrades
- Giants' Isaiah Hodgins and Darius Slayton vs. Cowboys' Trevon Diggs and Stephon Gilmore
- Patriots' DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne vs. Eagles' James Bradberry and Darius Slay
Other matchups and notes
- Don't be surprised if the Falcons' Drake London is shadowed by the Panthers' Jaycee Horn. Horn shadowed sparingly last season, but new DC Ejiro Evero used Pat Surtain II as a shadow cover quite often in Denver. Downgrade London only slightly.
- Ravens receiver Odell Beckham Jr. could draw shadow coverage from Texans 2022 first-round pick Derek Stingley Jr. Stingley struggled as a rookie and this is a new scheme, so no reason for concern here.
- The Cowboys' CeeDee Lamb could draw the Giants' Adoree' Jackson as a shadow at times, but note that Lamb aligned in the slot 62% of the time last season. We should expect similar usage with Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks likely to work the perimeter most of the time. Lamb doesn't need to be downgraded.
- The Vikings' Justin Jefferson could draw the shadow from the Buccaneers' Carlton Davis III. It's seemingly unlikely, however, as Davis didn't shadow at all in 2022 until running mate Jamel Dean went out with an injury late in the season. The most likely outcome is that Dean and Davis will play sides, combining to cover Jefferson on the approximately 70% or so of his routes run from the perimeter.
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The Playbook, Week 1: Chiefs, Ravens most likely to win
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALWelcome to the Week 1 Fantasy Football Playbook, kicking off Thursday night with Detroit visiting Kansas City.
This will be your guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.)
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GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Thursday 8:20 PM ET
Projected Score: Chiefs 32, Lions 24
| RANK | PLAYER | PROJ | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Patrick Mahomes, KC | 24.8 | Great |
| QB19 | Jared Goff, DET | 15.7 | Good |
| RB18 | Jahmyr Gibbs, DET | 14.0 | Average |
| RB25 | David Montgomery, DET | 12.3 | Average |
| RB34 | Isiah Pacheco, KC | 10.6 | Shaky |
| RB35 | Jerick McKinnon, KC | 10.4 | Shaky |
| WR6 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | 16.7 | Good |
| WR38 | Skyy Moore, KC | 10.8 | Good |
| WR55 | Kadarius Toney, KC | 8.9 | Good |
| WR59 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling, KC | 8.6 | Good |
| WR65 | Marvin Jones Jr., DET | 8.2 | Good |
| TE1 | Travis Kelce, KC | 18.9 | Great |
| TE18 | Sam LaPorta, DET | 7.4 | Average |
| DST22 | Chiefs D/ST | 4.8 | Poor |
| DST32 | Lions D/ST | 2.8 | Poor |
- We drafted Isiah Pacheco to be a weekly starter, but he's risky in Week 1 after missing a significant portion of the offseason activities due to injury. We could see more of Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire this week, so Pacheco is best viewed as a flex option. The same goes for McKinnon, who will be plenty involved in the passing game.
- Kadarius Toney will be active for this game, but he missed a ton of practice time dealing with a knee injury and could be very limited in the season opener. He's a risky deep-league flex, whereas Skyy Moore is the top fantasy play from Kansas City's WR room. Expect Moore to play a role similar to the one that kept JuJu Smith-Schuster on the weekly WR3/flex radar last season.
- If Kelce (knee) is unable to play, the Chiefs TE room is best avoided. Kelce last missed a game in Week 16 of 2021. In that game, Noah Gray played on 72% of the snaps and handled two targets, whereas Blake Bell played on 37% of snaps and was targeted just once. Both TEs remain on the roster and will soak up Kelce's snaps, but the targets figure to swing to the team's WRs. (Note: The Chiefs won that game 36-10 over the Steelers, which is an indicator that the KC offense doesn't need to be downgraded as a whole if Kelce sits.)
Win Probability: Chiefs 79% (highest)
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Projected Score: Falcons 21, Panthers 20
| RANK | PLAYER | PROJ | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB28 | Bryce Young, CAR | 14.3 | Good |
| QB31 | Desmond Ridder, ATL | 12.8 | Good |
| RB4 | Bijan Robinson, ATL | 17.2 | Average |
| RB15 | Miles Sanders, CAR | 14.2 | Average |
| WR30 | Drake London, ATL | 12.4 | Great |
| WR43 | DJ Chark Jr., CAR | 10.6 | Good |
| WR47 | Adam Thielen, CAR | 9.5 | Good |
| WR71 | Jonathan Mingo, CAR | 7.5 | Good |
| TE7 | Kyle Pitts, ATL | 10.1 | Average |
| DST6 | Falcons D/ST | 7.0 | Average |
| DST11 | Panthers D/ST | 6.2 | Average |
- DJ Chark Jr. (hamstring) has missed some practice time, but he's expected to play in the season opener. There's some added risk here, but he and fellow veteran newcomer Adam Thielen (who has also missed practice time) are your top fantasy options from Carolina's WR room. Thielen is the safer play, but Chark's vertical ability allows him more upside. Rookie Jonathan Mingo could prove to be the best of the bunch in time, but he's too risky to count on in his pro debut. He should only be in your flex if both Chark and Thielen are out.
Win Probability: Falcons 53% (15th highest)
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Projected Score: Ravens 28, Texans 19
| RANK | PLAYER | PROJ | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB2 | Lamar Jackson, BAL | 22.5 | Poor |
| QB30 | C.J. Stroud, HOU | 12.9 | Shaky |
| RB19 | Dameon Pierce, HOU | 13.6 | Shaky |
| RB22 | J.K. Dobbins, BAL | 12.7 | Great |
| RB43 | Devin Singletary, HOU | 7.5 | Shaky |
| WR41 | Odell Beckham Jr., BAL | 10.7 | Shaky |
| WR44 | Nico Collins, HOU | 10.1 | Average |
| WR52 | Zay Flowers, BAL | 9.3 | Shaky |
| WR73 | Robert Woods, HOU | 7.4 | Average |
| TE2 | Mark Andrews, BAL | 13.4 | Average |
| TE13 | Dalton Schultz, HOU | 8.2 | Shaky |
| DST2 | Ravens D/ST | 8.4 | Great |
| DST31 | Texans D/ST | 3.7 | Average |
- J.K. Dobbins missed some offseason activities due to contract and injury issues, but he's expected to lead the Baltimore backfield right out of the gate this season. Concerns about his passing-game involvement remain, but his elite rushing ability keeps him in the RB2 mix, especially against a Houston defense that finished fifth or worse in RB fantasy points allowed in each of the past four seasons (most in 2022) and still has concerns in the front seven.
- Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers will make their Baltimore debuts this week, and both are best viewed as flex options until we see how the usage sorts out among those two and Rashod Bateman. Beckham is the safer Week 1 flex, but keep in mind that Houston has a pretty good foursome at cornerback and allowed the fewest TD catches (6) and fourth-fewest WR fantasy points in 2022.
Win Probability: Ravens 79% (2nd highest)
Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Projected Score: Bengals 25, Browns 24
| RANK | PLAYER | PROJ | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB5 | Joe Burrow, CIN | 19.7 | Poor |
| QB8 | Deshaun Watson, CLE | 18.4 | Poor |
| RB7 | Nick Chubb, CLE | 15.5 | Poor |
| RB12 | Joe Mixon, CIN | 14.8 | Good |
| WR3 | Ja'Marr Chase, CIN | 20.4 | Shaky |
| WR12 | Tee Higgins, CIN | 14.6 | Shaky |
| WR21 | Amari Cooper, CLE | 13.6 | Poor |
| WR60 | Elijah Moore, CLE | 8.5 | Poor |
| WR67 | Tyler Boyd, CIN | 8.1 | Shaky |
| WR74 | Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE | 7.0 | Poor |
| TE9 | David Njoku, CLE | 10.0 | Shaky |
| DST14 | Browns D/ST | 5.8 | Shaky |
| DST20 | Bengals D/ST | 5.2 | Average |
- There aren't many "fringe players" in this game, with secondary wide receivers such as Elijah Moore, Tyler Boyd and Donovan Peoples-Jones best used only in deeper leagues. Moore is the most intriguing flex dart throw, as the former Jet has looked terrific this offseason and could finish as high as second for targets in a Cleveland offense expected to throw the ball more often. He'll enjoy an added boost if top Bengals CB Chidobe Awuzie shadows Cooper.
Win Probability: Bengals 54% (14th highest)
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Projected Score: Jaguars 25, Colts 21
| RANK | PLAYER | PROJ | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB9 | Trevor Lawrence, JAC | 18.4 | Good |
| QB16 | Anthony Richardson, IND | 16.7 | Good |
| RB10 | Travis Etienne Jr., JAC | 15.0 | Good |
| RB41 | Zack Moss, IND | 8.1 | Average |
| RB42 | Deon Jackson, IND | 7.6 | Average |
| WR14 | Calvin Ridley, JAC | 14.2 | Average |
| WR31 | Christian Kirk, JAC | 12.3 | Average |
| WR33 | Michael Pittman Jr., IND | 12.1 | Average |
| WR57 | Zay Jones, JAC | 8.7 | Average |
| WR72 | Alec Pierce, IND | 7.5 | Average |
| TE10 | Evan Engram, JAC | 9.9 | Average |
| DST4 | Jaguars D/ST | 7.5 | Great |
| DST29 | Colts D/ST | 4.0 | Poor |
- Jonathan Taylor (PUP, ankle) is out for at least four weeks, which sets up Zack Moss, Deon Jackson and rookie Evan Hull as a probable Week 1 committee in the Colts' backfield. We saw Jackson handle some spot-start work last year, and he averaged 14.9 fantasy PPG during the five outings in which he reached double-digit touches. He and Moss (who has missed several weeks of practice with a broken hand) are the safer desperation flex plays, but this is a situation best avoided.
- Christian Kirk and Michael Pittman Jr. were lineup locks for most of last season, but both took a value hit during the offseason. Kirk will defer substantial targets to newcomer Ridley, whereas Pittman will need to overcome a rookie quarterback (Anthony Richardson) and an offense likely to throw the ball considerably less often. Both Kirk and Pittman are WR3/flex options.
Win Probability: Jaguars 65% (9th highest)
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Projected Score: Vikings 25, Buccaneers 20
| RANK | PLAYER | PROJ | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB15 | Kirk Cousins, MIN | 17.4 | Average |
| QB25 | Baker Mayfield, TB | 14.7 | Good |
| RB16 | Alexander Mattison, MIN | 14.5 | Average |
| RB17 | Rachaad White, TB | 13.9 | Average |
| WR1 | Justin Jefferson, MIN | 20.1 | Average |
| WR17 | Chris Godwin, TB | 14.1 | Great |
| WR19 | Mike Evans, TB | 13.8 | Great |
| WR49 | Jordan Addison, MIN | 9.4 | Average |
| WR68 | K.J. Osborn, MIN | 7.9 | Average |
| TE3 | T.J. Hockenson, MIN | 12.5 | Good |
| DST9 | Vikings D/ST | 6.6 | Shaky |
| DST24 | Buccaneers D/ST | 4.6 | Average |
- Jordan Addison is an exciting young player who could be in line for a terrific rookie season, but he should be anywhere between third and fifth in line for targets in his pro debut. That makes him a risky fantasy option, so he's best left on benches.
Win Probability: Vikings 68% (5th highest)
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Projected Score: Saints 22, Titans 19
| RANK | PLAYER | PROJ | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB23 | Derek Carr, NO | 14.7 | Great |
| QB26 | Ryan Tannehill, TEN | 14.4 | Average |
| RB5 | Derrick Henry, TEN | 17.1 | Average |
| RB23 | Jamaal Williams, NO | 12.6 | Poor |
| WR13 | Chris Olave, NO | 14.4 | Great |
| WR23 | DeAndre Hopkins, TEN | 13.4 | Average |
| WR32 | Michael Thomas, NO | 12.2 | Great |
| WR46 | Treylon Burks, TEN | 9.8 | Average |
| TE14 | Juwan Johnson, NO | 8.0 | Great |
| TE15 | Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN | 8.0 | Poor |
| DST10 | Saints D/ST | 6.6 | Good |
| DST18 | Titans D/ST | 5.2 | Good |
- Alvin Kamara (suspension) will miss Weeks 1-3, which positions Jamaal Williams as the Saints' early-season lead back. Williams, who led the NFL in rushing scores last season, should lead the team in carries and goal-line work, but he wasn't a factor in the passing game last season and the Jeffery Simmons-led Titans have been elite at slowing backs over the past two seasons. Consider Williams as a fringe RB2, although he'll be a little more appealing if Kendre Miller (hamstring) doesn't suit up.
- Michael Thomas is expected to be a "full go" this week after missing 40 of the Saints' past 50 games. The good news is that he's been effective when active, having posted a 16-171-3 receiving line on 22 targets in his three games last season. Although Thomas no longer leads New Orleans in targets, he'll have enough of a role to warrant WR3 consideration.
Win Probability: Saints 61% (10th highest)
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Projected Score: 49ers 20, Steelers 19
| RANK | PLAYER | PROJ | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB27 | Kenny Pickett, PIT | 14.4 | Shaky |
| QB29 | Brock Purdy, SF | 13.8 | Average |
| RB2 | Christian McCaffrey, SF | 17.3 | Average |
| RB21 | Najee Harris, PIT | 13.4 | Poor |
| WR15 | Deebo Samuel, SF | 14.2 | Average |
| WR22 | Diontae Johnson, PIT | 13.2 | Great |
| WR37 | George Pickens, PIT | 10.8 | Great |
| WR42 | Brandon Aiyuk, SF | 10.6 | Average |
| TE6 | George Kittle, SF | 10.5 | Average |
| TE11 | Pat Freiermuth, PIT | 9.5 | Shaky |
| DST3 | 49ers D/ST | 7.8 | Average |
| DST7 | Steelers D/ST | 7.0 | Shaky |
- The 49ers have a great defense, but it was elite against the run and shaky against receivers last season -- a characteristic that might continue, considering their shaky CB situation behind Charvarius Ward. George Pickens stands to benefit out of the gate and is on the WR3 radar in Week 1 of what might be his breakout season.
- Brandon Aiyuk might seem low for a player coming off a career year in which he finished 15th in fantasy points (24th in PPG), but he was way over his head in the TD department and has a ton of competition for touches in McCaffrey, Samuel and Kittle. Aiyuk is best viewed as a flex on the road against a very good Steelers defense.
Win Probability: 49ers 54% (13th highest)
Wagerallsports
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- Mar 6, 2018
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FedExField, Landover, MD
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Projected Score: Commanders 23, Cardinals 17
| RANK | PLAYER | PROJ | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB17 | Sam Howell, WAS | 16.5 | Average |
| QB32 | Joshua Dobbs, ARI | 12.1 | Shaky |
| RB13 | James Conner, ARI | 14.9 | Poor |
| RB31 | Brian Robinson Jr., WAS | 11.3 | Great |
| RB33 | Antonio Gibson, WAS | 10.7 | Great |
| WR25 | Terry McLaurin, WAS | 13.1 | Shaky |
| WR29 | Marquise Brown, ARI | 12.6 | Average |
| WR35 | Jahan Dotson, WAS | 11.1 | Shaky |
| WR56 | Rondale Moore, ARI | 8.9 | Average |
| WR64 | Curtis Samuel, WAS | 8.3 | Shaky |
| TE24 | Logan Thomas, WAS | 7.1 | Great |
| DST1 | Commanders D/ST | 8.2 | Good |
| DST17 | Cardinals D/ST | 5.6 | Good |
- McLaurin (toe) is questionable for this game. If he plays, he should be in lineups, whereas Jahan Dotson would be a WR3/flex and Curtis Samuel bench material. If McLaurin is out, Dotson moves up to "lineup lock" territory and Samuel into WR3/flex.
- Arizona's CB room is as shaky as they come, so unless those players show up with fire in their gut, this is a smash spot for Washington's passing game. Do we dare stream Sam Howell in just his second NFL start? It's tempting in a home game against a rebuilding Arizona squad. Even if the UNC product underwhelms through the air, he can contribute with his legs (35 yards and 1 TD on five carries in his lone 2022 start). Alas, his experience makes him risky and McLaurin isn't fully healthy. Howell is safest as a QB2 and DFS punt play.
Win Probability: Commanders 70% (4th highest)
Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Sunday 4:25 PM ET
Projected Score: Bears 23, Packers 21
| RANK | PLAYER | PROJ | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB6 | Justin Fields, CHI | 19.5 | Average |
| QB22 | Jordan Love, GB | 14.9 | Great |
| RB9 | Aaron Jones, GB | 15.2 | Great |
| RB30 | Khalil Herbert, CHI | 11.2 | Good |
| RB32 | AJ Dillon, GB | 10.9 | Great |
| WR20 | Christian Watson, GB | 13.6 | Good |
| WR28 | DJ Moore, CHI | 12.7 | Average |
| WR53 | Darnell Mooney, CHI | 9.2 | Average |
| WR66 | Jayden Reed, GB | 8.2 | Good |
| WR69 | Chase Claypool, CHI | 7.7 | Average |
| WR70 | Romeo Doubs, GB | 7.5 | Good |
| TE12 | Cole Kmet, CHI | 8.5 | Shaky |
| DST12 | Packers D/ST | 6.1 | Great |
| DST16 | Bears D/ST | 5.6 | Average |
- Khalil Herbert appears to have won Chicago's lead back gig, and, although a breakout season would make him one of the year's top fantasy values, it's more likely he'll be leading a committee that also includes D'Onta Foreman and perhaps Roschon Johnson. Herbert is likely looking at 13-15 touches in the opener and is best valued as a flex.
- Cole Kmet was a solid late-round value throughout draft season and is very much on the TE1 radar in Week 1. After a slow start last season, he ranked fourth in TE fantasy points during his final nine games.
Win Probability: Bears 55% (12th highest)
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Sunday 4:25 PM ET
Projected Score: Broncos 26, Raiders 22
| RANK | PLAYER | PROJ | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB10 | Russell Wilson, DEN | 18.7 | Great |
| QB21 | Jimmy Garoppolo, LV | 15.4 | Shaky |
| RB8 | Josh Jacobs, LV | 16.5 | Good |
| RB27 | Samaje Perine, DEN | 12.4 | Great |
| RB29 | Javonte Williams, DEN | 11.5 | Great |
| WR4 | Davante Adams, LV | 19.0 | Poor |
| WR26 | Courtland Sutton, DEN | 13.0 | Good |
| WR36 | Jakobi Meyers, LV | 10.9 | Poor |
| WR58 | Marvin Mims Jr., DEN | 8.7 | Good |
| WR63 | Hunter Renfrow, LV | 8.3 | Poor |
| TE19 | Greg Dulcich, DEN | 7.1 | Average |
| DST19 | Broncos D/ST | 5.2 | Average |
| DST23 | Raiders D/ST | 4.7 | Great |
- Russell Wilson's first season in Denver went about as poorly as possible, but he quietly had a strong finish and now gets a boost from the arrival of Sean Payton. He is an intriguing Week 1 streaming option against a shaky Raiders defense.
- Javonte Williams (torn ACL) played during the preseason, but, although he's likely to be active in Week 1, a full complement of snaps is doubtful. Instead, we should expect a rotation with Samaje Perine (perhaps the better fantasy option this week) and might also see a few touches for impressive rookie Jaleel McLaughlin.
- Jeudy (hamstring) is questionable for Week 1. If he's out, Courtland Sutton gets a boost to WR2/3 territory and Marvin Mims Jr. becomes a sleeper for a hefty target load in his NFL debut. Sutton has struggled to find the end zone in recent seasons (only four TDs in 32 games over the past two seasons), but if Jeudy is out, he'll be peppered with enough targets that he'd be tough to bench. In the four games when Jeudy was out or barely played last season, Sutton averaged a massive 29% target share and was fantasy's WR14 in terms of scoring.
Win Probability: Broncos 66% (8th highest)
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Sunday 4:25 PM ET
Projected Score: Dolphins 24, Chargers 23
| RANK | PLAYER | PROJ | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB13 | Tua Tagovailoa, MIA | 17.6 | Average |
| QB11 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 16.9 | Great |
| RB1 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 17.9 | Average |
| RB28 | Raheem Mostert, MIA | 12.0 | Great |
| WR2 | Tyreek Hill, MIA | 20.5 | Shaky |
| WR11 | Jaylen Waddle, MIA | 15.3 | Shaky |
| WR18 | Keenan Allen, LAC | 14.1 | Shaky |
| WR27 | Mike Williams, LAC | 12.8 | Shaky |
| TE16 | Gerald Everett, LAC | 7.5 | Great |
| DST13 | Dolphins D/ST | 5.9 | Shaky |
| DST26 | Chargers D/ST | 4.5 | Shaky |
- Both quarterbacks are fringe starting options in Week 1. Justin Herbert was drafted to be a starter (which is why I'm ranking him ahead of Tua Tagovailoa despite a slightly lower projection), but considering he'll face Miami's loaded defense, you could make a case for his being a streaming option. Tagovailoa is also one of those potential streamers, as he was terrific when healthy last season (first in YPA, third in QBR, seventh in fantasy PPG), although his ceiling is limited a bit by a lack of rushing.
- Jeff Wilson Jr. (abdomen) is out for Weeks 1-4, which positions Raheem Mostert and perhaps rookie De'Von Achane (battling a shoulder injury) for a majority of Miami's Week 1 RB touches. Mostert, who sports a historically elite 5.38 YPC in his career, sat 27th in RB fantasy points before Wilson's arrival last season, so his upside is very much limited even if he's in the lead back role. That's still the case against a Chargers defense that has struggled against the run during the Brandon Staley era.
Win Probability: Dolphins 51% (16th highest)
Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
Sunday 4:25 PM ET
Projected Score: Eagles 26, Patriots 21
| RANK | PLAYER | PROJ | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB3 | Jalen Hurts, PHI | 21.5 | Average |
| QB24 | Mac Jones, NE | 14.7 | Poor |
| RB11 | Rhamondre Stevenson, NE | 15.0 | Average |
| RB36 | D'Andre Swift, PHI | 9.7 | Shaky |
| RB37 | Rashaad Penny, PHI | 7.9 | Shaky |
| RB38 | Ezekiel Elliott, NE | 7.6 | Average |
| WR10 | A.J. Brown, PHI | 14.6 | Average |
| WR16 | DeVonta Smith, PHI | 14.0 | Average |
| WR40 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, NE | 10.8 | Poor |
| WR61 | DeVante Parker, NE | 8.4 | Poor |
| TE8 | Dallas Goedert, PHI | 9.9 | Average |
| TE20 | Mike Gesicki, NE | 7.1 | Shaky |
| DST8 | Eagles D/ST | 6.9 | Good |
| DST28 | Patriots D/ST | 4.2 | Poor |
- Sorting out the Eagles' RB situation is one of the most complicated challenges in fantasy football this season. Swift is the most accomplished of the group, and his receiving chops are enough to make him the top flex option. Rashaad Penny is likely to handle a generous chunk of early-down work, but he might be lucky to see one target. Kenneth Gainwell will mix in (perhaps primarily on third down). It's possible none of these backs will emerge as a consistent fantasy producer.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster might emerge as a viable weekly WR3/flex, but he gets a downgrade this week against a good Eagles CB room. Smith-Schuster will get plenty of slot run, but that won't be a walk in the park against a healthy Avonte Maddox, and he'll be outside against Darius Slay or James Bradberry when the Patriots have two tight ends on the field.
Win Probability: Eagles 66% (7th highest)
Wagerallsports
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- Mar 6, 2018
- Messages
- 52,838
Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Sunday 4:25 PM ET
Projected Score: Seahawks 28, Rams 21
| RANK | PLAYER | PROJ | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB7 | Geno Smith, SEA | 19.2 | Shaky |
| QB20 | Matthew Stafford, LAR | 16.2 | Average |
| RB14 | Ken Walker III, SEA | 14.5 | Average |
| RB20 | Cam Akers, LAR | 13.5 | Good |
| RB40 | Zach Charbonnet, SEA | 7.6 | Average |
| WR8 | DK Metcalf, SEA | 15.6 | Good |
| WR24 | Tyler Lockett, SEA | 13.0 | Good |
| WR39 | Van Jefferson, LAR | 10.8 | Poor |
| WR51 | Tutu Atwell, LAR | 9.3 | Poor |
| WR54 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA | 9.1 | Good |
| WR62 | Puka Nacua, LAR | 8.4 | Poor |
| TE5 | Tyler Higbee, LAR | 11.8 | Great |
| DST21 | Seahawks D/ST | 5.1 | Great |
| DST27 | Rams D/ST | 4.3 | Average |
- Geno Smith was not drafted to be a weekly fantasy starter, but he's a strong streaming option against what is, on paper, arguably the league's shakiest defense. Expect Smith, who threw 30 touchdowns and ranked eighth in QB rushing yards last season, to start 2023 with a bang.
- Cooper Kupp (hamstring) is out for Week 1, which opens up a substantial target share for the team's other pass-catchers. Van Jefferson becomes Los Angeles' top receiver. Granted, Matthew Stafford was sidelined for half the season, but note that Jefferson failed to clear 12.5 fantasy points in any single game last season. Consider Jefferson as a flex. Similarly, Tutu Atwell handled a 16% target share when Kupp was out last season, but that translated to just 7.0 fantasy PPG.
- Tyler Higbee didn't get much respect during draft season despite finishing sixth in TE fantasy points and fifth in TE receptions last season. He'll get a boost in usage with Kupp sidelined -- and he saw eight-plus targets in five out of nine games with Stafford last season. Consider Higbee to be a midrange TE1.
Win Probability: Seahawks 74% (3rd highest)
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Sunday 8:20 PM ET
Projected Score: Cowboys 26, Giants 21
| RANK | PLAYER | PROJ | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB12 | Dak Prescott, DAL | 18.3 | Average |
| QB14 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 17.5 | Average |
| RB3 | Tony Pollard, DAL | 17.5 | Good |
| RB6 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 16.9 | Poor |
| WR5 | CeeDee Lamb, DAL | 17.7 | Shaky |
| WR34 | Brandin Cooks, DAL | 11.9 | Shaky |
| WR48 | Michael Gallup, DAL | 9.4 | Shaky |
| TE4 | Darren Waller, NYG | 12.1 | Poor |
| DST5 | Cowboys D/ST | 7.2 | Average |
| DST30 | Giants D/ST | 3.9 | Shaky |
- Dak Prescott and Daniel Jones are fringe starting options this week. Prescott is eyeing a rebound campaign after pacing the NFL in interceptions last season, and will have a terrific WR trio (Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup) at his disposal. Jones will need to overcome a good Dallas defense, but he'll have a better supporting cast (led by Waller) this season.
- Cooks was undervalued in fantasy drafts throughout the offseason and shouldn't be overlooked as a WR3/flex option in his Dallas debut. Cooks, who is entering his 10th NFL season at age 29, has finished as a top-25 fantasy wideout in seven of his nine pro seasons.
Win Probability: Cowboys 67% (6th highest)
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Monday 8:15 PM ET
Projected Score: Bills 24, Jets 22
| RANK | PLAYER | PROJ | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB4 | Josh Allen, BUF | 21.2 | Shaky |
| QB18 | Aaron Rodgers, NYJ | 15.8 | Poor |
| RB24 | James Cook, BUF | 12.3 | Shaky |
| RB26 | Dalvin Cook, NYJ | 12.0 | Shaky |
| RB39 | Breece Hall, NYJ | 7.5 | Shaky |
| WR7 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 16.5 | Average |
| WR9 | Stefon Diggs, BUF | 16.0 | Poor |
| WR45 | Gabe Davis, BUF | 10.1 | Poor |
| WR50 | Allen Lazard, NYJ | 9.4 | Average |
| TE17 | Tyler Conklin, NYJ | 7.1 | Poor |
| DST15 | Bills D/ST | 5.7 | Good |
| DST25 | Jets D/ST | 4.5 | Poor |
- Aaron Rodgers is certainly motivated to put up big numbers in his New York debut, but he's a risky fantasy play against a terrific Buffalo defense. The Bills have finished no worse than third in QB fantasy points allowed during four of the past five seasons, including two years straight. Rodgers is coming off a season with zero 20-plus point outings and is no longer a factor with his legs. He's best left on benches this week.
- It's brother vs. brother as James Cook and Dalvin Cook face off on "Monday Night Football." Little brother James is the superior fantasy option, as all reports indicate that the 2022 second-round pick has clear control of the Buffalo backfield. This is a tough matchup, however, so consider him an RB2/flex. Dalvin should be valued similarly in his Jets debut, although he'll be more secure at RB2 if Breece Hall (ACL) is inactive. Hall is expected to be limited early on this season, which is why he's buried in the ranks.
Win Probability: Bills 57% (11th highest)
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