Duke -4 Request: Convince me this is a mistake

[Tanko]

I'm looking at stats, lineups, recent game history, spreads, momentum, the "Coach K effect". Everything is telling me Duke -4. Most people on the forums are on the same side (makes me a little nervous).


Someone argue the other side. Tell me why this is a mistake.

If you agree with the Duke side, tell us.
I do see other plays (1H and O/U) for this game to consider but let's focus on the spread for now.

 

[RudyRuder]

whole forum might be on them


normally id say that sucks and im going opposite

but its only 3 or 4 of you SHARPS

so maybe we can make it a FORUM PLAY

 

[Bubbles]

No arguments here as well. Unless the dog trend wins continue then we're f$^%&^& up.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Arkansas was very fortunate against Gonzaga

Caught a lot of breaks

I Don't think it will happen again

 

[Tanko]

Arkansas was very fortunate against Gonzaga

Caught a lot of breaks

I Don't think it will happen again

Yeah, Holmgren was screwed on fouls, IMO.

I hope they don't get the same advantage against Duke but you have to think it won't happen 2 games in a row, right?

 

[carolinakid]

i will use them , but i will use -3 later............gl guys

 

[mikesmith99]

I'm looking at stats, lineups, recent game history, spreads, momentum, the "Coach K effect". Everything is telling me Duke -4. Most people on the forums are on the same side (makes me a little nervous).


Someone argue the other side. Tell me why this is a mistake.

If you agree with the Duke side, tell us.
I do see other plays (1H and O/U) for this game to consider but let's focus on the spread for now.

whole forum might be on them


normally id say that sucks and im going opposite

but its only 3 or 4 of you SHARPS

so maybe we can make it a FORUM PLAY

Man forum community might be on Duke but consensus at different sites have the public slightly on Ark by 6 to 4.


Thats enough for me to like Duke and what we've seen from them.

i will use them , but i will use -3 later............gl guys

Only thing that worries me and wanted to hear CKs thoughts is,

Since we can't predict the reffing, in a scenario similar to the Zags in which Arkansas got physical and threw them off their game, could Duke fall in the same trap or you reckon that they've shown more mental toughness in similar situations this season @carolinakid ?

 

[carolinakid]

the number i have here if i use duke is -3, that the hot number with my stats here

 

[MarkyMark]

Whenever you need to talk yourself into or out of a play, you're overthinking it.

 

[mikesmith99]

the number i have here if i use duke is -3, that the hot number with my stats here

That's all I need to know my man!!

 

[Wagerallsports]

Whenever you need to talk yourself into or out of a play, you're overthinking it.

Can't argue that point

 

[Tanko]

The public % bets/cash is always debatable depending upon your source. Here are 3 sources.


1. BMR has (offshore) %bets at 64/36 Ark/Duke

2. Pregame (offshore) %bets at 50/50 Ark/Duke & %Cash at 47/53 Ark/Duke, This is down from 40/60 earlier in the day when I first mentioned public slightly on Duke.

3. Wagertalk (US Books) %bets 55/45 Ark/Duke & %cash at 60/40 Ark/Duke.

I will say that the line is moved to -3.5 in a number of books and the %bet/%Cash trends are moving towards Ark. So, since morning, the public is coming in on that side pretty well over the last several hours (makes me feel a little less square with Duke).

As CK points out, would love to have -3. I liked it at -4 so I'll take the -3.5.

 

[Tanko]

Whenever you need to talk yourself into or out of a play, you're overthinking it.

This is true, but its good to hear others opinions to make sure I'm not missing something due to over-analysis. I may not agree with that opinion or have it impact my play but I like hearing the other side. Sometimes it just confirms my selection, rarely does it change it.

 

[RudyRuder]

Man forum community might be on Duke but consensus at different sites have the public slightly on Ark by 6 to 4.

[/USER] ?

yea bro, thats what i said to GARY

 

[mikesmith99]

yea bro, thats what i said to GARY

Gary doesnt know whats up. I saw that in the other thread. Little bit of a Benedict Arnold attitude imo. Maybe he's a Russian spy?

 

[Wagerallsports]

Since I missed Nova making Duke official play -4

 

[Enikk]

Gary doesnt know whats up. I saw that in the other thread. Little bit of a Benedict Arnold attitude imo. Maybe he's a Russian spy?

Thems fighting words.....Never fvck with a snail MikeS. You must be drinking and getting those free nacho fries at Taco Bell again?

 

[mikesmith99]

Thems fighting words.....Never fvck with a snail MikeS. You must be drinking and getting those free nacho fries at Taco Bell again?

Hey man Im a peaceful loving mutt but why go against the Forum's power play? Not cool...also Go Duke!!! Smells like bacon!

BUt yeah...got a little sugar high in the afternoon...all pumped uf with the ufc fights...might have gotten carried away but no regrets lol

 

[Bubbles]

At the end it's Duke vs Kansas to face in the championship game.

 

[carolinakid]

i think Kansas has the most easy game in the final 4