locksnonstop
- Joined
- Sep 21, 2022
- Messages
- 37
| Go ahead and play the Under 39.5 in this week's Redskins/Colts game. This total opened 42.5 with status quo Matt Ryan expected. It then plummeted to 40.5 when news of his benching hit the wire. And has now sh!t out another full point to 39.5 as the market fully digests the situation. In today's caution-to-the-wind NFL, we've grown accustomed to seeing staffs free-wheel it in the name of "analytics". But that won't be the case in this one. And that's why there's still value in the Under, even at this number. Because this game will devolve into an ugly rock fight between jittery coaches. Riverboat Ron doesn't really live up to his moniker anymore. And that'll be further accentuated this week, as he missed some practice time for a "family emergency"...leaving defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio in charge. It's hard to imagine this not hampering the Redskin offense some. And look for Frank Reich to be apprehensive as well, with his seat warming and a new QB under center. Will Sam Ehlinger give this Indy offense a spark? Well... Going back to even last season, Ehlinger's "intangibles" have been touted by folks inside the org. But he's never thrown a pass in an NFL game. And my sources tell me that a disgruntled, highly insecure Matt Ryan has been hesitant from the jump to school the kid. Phony ESPN-types are expecting Ehlinger to use his legs. But wiseguys are telling me it's gunna be more dump off type passes in the flat. Either way, he's not going to be throwing the ball down field. That takes 30 yard bailout P.I. gifts off the table. I just envision lots of weak little screen passes that get gobbled up immediately by Redskin defenders and keep the clock melting. More: "The market is aware of Heinicke's effectiveness as a starter. And there's a narrative out there that Ehlinger might be plug-and-play. Bottom line...the Public is getting baited into playing the Over, especially now that the number has dropped. Don't be a sucker." Still more: "This is one of the lowest totals on the board. It's counterintuitive, but as a rule of thumb, you should lean toward betting the high totals Over and the low totals Under. Fish usually get baited into doing the opposite. I'd sure like to have gotten to this number earlier. That's the only reason why this play fell just short of making my Client Card." LocksNonStop |
