Couple of Early Lines for Sweet 16 I Like

[Tanko]

I like Kansas St. as the dog vs Mich St.

Kansas St. ML +113 Thursday

Mich St. had been feasting at the 3 pt line to end the season. I think they shot like 55% in their last 4-5 games from 3. K-state closes out on 3's exceptionally well allowing ~30% from 3 pt line. Both teams shoot well from the FT line (~75%) but K-state gets there a lot more. 21% of their points come from the line while only 16% for Michigan. While that may not sound like a lot, realize this game will be close and FT's will likely make the difference.

Anyone have early leans on Sweet 16 games.

GL

 

[slickfazzer]

Nice insight Tanko on the 3 pt situation.

 

[Tanko]

Texas -4 over Xavier Friday

Texas -4

Texas is returning to the arena they won the Big 12 title in 2 weeks prior. That helps. They played exceptionally well there beating Okla St., TCU, and Kansas soundly.

Offensively, these teams are pretty even (5th and 17th on offensive efficiency).

The real difference is on Defense. Texas allows about 0.90 pts/possession (10th in the country). Xavier allows 0.99 pts/possesion (63rd). This is a huge delta for a game that is expected to have about 70 or more possessions. That's about a 6.5 point difference on paper.

One of the biggest drivers for the delta in defensive performance is turnover generation. Almost one out of every 4 possession (22.5%) by Texas opponents results in a turnover (19th in the country). Xavier defense generates a turnover every 6 possession (16%) (292nd).

Those are the biggest deltas I see between these teams. Otherwise its pretty close but, those differences should give Texas the edge to cover the 4 points IMO.

 

[BMR Genie]

Good luck, Tank!

 

[Pimike]

Texas -4 over Xavier Friday

Texas -4

Texas is returning to the arena they won the Big 12 title in 2 weeks prior. That helps. They played exceptionally well there beating Okla St., TCU, and Kansas soundly.

Offensively, these teams are pretty even (5th and 17th on offensive efficiency).

The real difference is on Defense. Texas allows about 0.90 pts/possession (10th in the country). Xavier allows 0.99 pts/possesion (63rd). This is a huge delta for a game that is expected to have about 70 or more possessions. That's about a 6.5 point difference on paper.

One of the biggest drivers for the delta in defensive performance is turnover generation. Almost one out of every 4 possession (22.5%) by Texas opponents results in a turnover (19th in the country). Xavier defense generates a turnover every 6 possession (16%) (292nd).

Those are the biggest deltas I see between these teams. Otherwise its pretty close but, those differences should give Texas the edge to cover the 4 points IMO.

Good information

 

[agendaman]

i believe the sweet 16 will be chalk city.dgs had their da in earier ams.now teams wth the most talent and will to win will prevail.my darkhorse-creighton.

 

[Tanko]

i believe the sweet 16 will be chalk city.dgs had their da in earier ams.now teams wth the most talent and will to win will prevail.my darkhorse-creighton.

I think so too. In 2022 Favs in Sweet 16 went 3-5.
This year feels different.

 

[jjgold]

Laying points in these games is insane

Mich St top level coach never forget that

 

[slickfazzer]

Great write ups Tanko!

 

[Tanko]

Laying points in these games is insane

Mich St top level coach never forget that

Hmmm.... I think you posted that the games were 24-23-1 ATS.
Seems as though its not as insane as you indicate, huh?


Also, how many points did Tom Izzo score in the last game? I can't seem to find his stat line.

 

[bkbrawler]

Laying points in these games is insane

Mich St top level coach never forget that

Izzo is a guy that's hard to bet against.

 

[Tanko]

I really like Arkansas in this tournament. Obviously, their last two games (Illinois and Kansas) were impressive. BUT.... UCONN is another animal all together.

Arkansas is on a roll and playing above themselves. The hype, pep, momentum is tough to sustain so, usually, the sweet 16 round is when team's actual performance comes to light. They "come down to earth". Besides, you could say the same hype/momentum is on UConn's side as well 8-2 ATS and 8-2 SU in last 10 with very easy wins in 1st 2 rounds.

So what can we say seperates these teams.... IMO, offensive performance. Does one team stand out??? All the indicators are UCONN will win and cover.

UConn Adj Off 1.21 pt/possession
Arkansas Adj Off 1.12 pt/possession

UConn 3 Pt: 36%
Arkansas 3 Pt: 31%

UConn Adj Def 0.93 pt/possession
Arkansas Adj Def 0.93 pt/possession

UConn Turnover rate 18%
Arkansas Turnover rate 18%

UConn holds edge on offensive rebounding: 13 vs 9 rebounds/gm.
Defensive rebouding is about even.


I look forward to JJ's comments. He is so insighful.

 

[jjgold]

I will decide day of

 

[fiftycint]

im on Texas and Kan St so far