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How Cooper Flagg reclassifying will impact the 2025 NBA draft
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALNBA prospect Cooper Flagg confirmed on Instagram what many in the basketball industry assumed for months -- he'll be reclassifying to the 2024 high school class from the 2025 class. This means it will be his last year at Montverde Academy before graduating next spring and likely enrolling in college.
Flagg, currently competing alongside top high school and college basketball players at the Nike Academy in Portland, Oregon, has had a busy spring and summer that propelled him into the national consciousness as one of the most exciting young prospects in the world.
ESPN NBA draft expert Jonathan Givony explains how Friday's news could impact Flagg's professional career and the 2025 and 2026 NBA drafts.
Who is Cooper Flagg and why does this news matter?
Flagg is considered by many to be the No. 1 prospect in high school regardless of class, although several elite prospects such as Airious Bailey, A.J. Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer can make a similar claim. He is likely to slot into the No. 1 spot in the 2024 high school class rankings, surpassing Bailey and Dylan Harper, who currently holds that mantle.
Standing around 6-foot-9, with a wingspan over 7-foot and outstanding mobility and quickness getting off his feet, Flagg is first and foremost a devastating force defensively, capable of guarding every position. He was the best player at last summer's FIBA U17 World Cup despite playing up as a 15-year-old, leading the USA to a gold medal with per-40 averages of 17.6 points, 18.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 5.4 blocks and 4.6 steals.
He's an excellent passer, a developing outside shooter and an outstanding finisher, while playing a simple brand of winning basketball that makes the game easy for teammates. His ballhandling, 3-point consistency, overall shot-creation and scoring prowess are still a work in progress, which is perhaps not a surprise considering he's 16 years old. However, scouts are still figuring out what his best position and role projects to be offensively.
Flagg became one of the most recognizable non-NBA faces this summer with his exploits on the Nike EYBL 16U circuit. He won MVP honors after averaging 26.8 points, 13.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 5.2 blocks while shooting 58% from 2-point range, 37% for 3 and 85% from the free throw line. The level of competition at the 16U level (which he decided to play at on a Maine team built around friends and family) left much to be desired. NBA scouts will get a lot more out of watching him on the NIBC circuit this fall and spring with Montverde, which plays a staunch schedule that will challenge Flagg, his twin brother Ace, and his talented teammates on the preseason No. 1 ranked team in the country.
What does it mean that Flagg is reclassifying?
Originally slated to graduate high school and enroll in college in the summer of 2025, Flagg will fast-track that process and move his timeline up by a year, meaning he will need to complete four years of high school work in three to satisfy NCAA academic eligibility requirements. Montverde Academy has experience with this process, as previous No. 1 prospect in the 2022 high school class Jalen Duren also moved up a year, as did RJ Barrett, Caleb Houstan and others at the suburban Orlando school.What's the benefit of reclassifying?
Flagg is now NBA draft-eligible in 2025 instead of 2026, meaning he is a year closer to a significant payday as the presumptive No. 1 pick in 2025. He would make over $11 million in his rookie season alone, without accounting for endorsements. It also gets him one year closer to signing far more lucrative second and third NBA contracts, which could be worth tens of millions of dollars conservatively, and possibly close to $100 million on the back end of his NBA career. Currently playing in Florida, which does not allow high school players to profit from their name, image and likeness (NIL), he'll also be eligible for a significant paycheck in college that will likely exceed $1 million in the year between graduating high school and being drafted.Flagg is moving up from a loaded 2025 high school class -- boasting Boozer and soon Dybantsa, both No. 1-pick-caliber prospects -- to a much weaker 2024 class, which analysts have long lamented for its lack of star power.
Making the call to reclassify now, as opposed to next spring like most players usually do, makes Flagg eligible to compete in the McDonald's All American game in March 2024.
What's the downside to reclassifying?
Some high-profile reclassification decisions the past few years didn't work out exactly as planned. Houstan, G.G. Jackson, and Emoni Bates went from top-five recruits to second-round picks. Shaedon Sharpe and Duren were previous No. 1 recruits who fell to No. 7 and No. 13 in their respective NBA drafts -- still more than acceptable outcomes. Others, such as Anthony Edwards, Barrett and Jamal Murray ended up being very high draft picks and outstanding NBA players.
Very few 17-year-olds are ready to play college basketball, especially from a physical standpoint. Flagg, with a strong frame, excellent defensive instincts and an outstanding feel for the game, looks to be an exception. Expectations will likely need to be tempered regarding how ready he is to impact the game offensively, as he doesn't yet have a consistent means of scoring in the half court on nights his jumper isn't falling with consistency. However, Flagg already impacts winning at the highest level and will play a major role as a freshman.
How does the 2025 NBA draft class now project with Flagg reclassifying? Who was the previous projected top prospect?
The 2025 draft wasn't considered particularly strong prior to today, not all that different from the 2024 draft class, which looks significantly weaker than the previous few years. Flagg gives this group more star power and notoriety despite his unorthodox game that is heavily built around defense and passing as opposed to overwhelming scoring prowess.Besides Flagg, Bailey -- a player we also just scouted at the Stephen Curry camp (where he matched up against Flagg) -- looks like the top candidate to be the No. 1 pick. Bailey, currently committed to Rutgers, has excellent size for a guard at almost 6-9 with impressive versatility as a ball handler, passer and perimeter shooter. He has been criticized in the past for not playing hard every time he steps on the floor -- similar to Brandon Miller at the same age -- but has the type of scoring instincts, dynamic shot-making ability and feel for the game that every NBA team is looking for at a huge position of need.
Although many will rightfully pencil in Flagg as the presumptive favorite to be the No. 1 pick in 2025, this is not a Victor Wembanyama-type situation where it's set in stone at this early stage.
