thefantasyking7
- Joined
- Apr 21, 2022
- Messages
- 11
Crystal Palace vs Leeds
I’m going to play a bit of a hunch here, in so far as this Crystal Palace team feels as on the beach as any Premier League team in the table. Comfortably safe from relegation, and far from the European spots, Patrik Veira’s team has seemed entirely deflated in their game vs Newcastle —- creating only 0.64xG over the course of 90 minutes in which they had much of the ball. Moreover, Palace will be without Michae Olise, who has been brilliant for this side for much of the season. But what’s most enticing about fading this palace side is their record against the bottom ten of the league —- failing to secure a win in 14/17 matches vs the bottom 9 of the Premier League. It seems to me as if they get up for the big games —— and this one is anything but that.
Across the pitch, this Leeds team feels to me a little undervalued, and the re-introduction of England international Kalvin Phillips and the resurgence of the brilliant pair upfront of Raphina/Rodrigo has meant a season that was hanging close to relegation is but one victory away in reality. Credit is owed to Jesse Marsh, but more importantly to the board at Leeds. Takes a big set of stones to hand the walking papers to FootballTwitter darling Marcelo Bielsa, and since doing so they’ve really secured their position in the league next year.
The other angle in this one for me is the OVER; There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 15 of Leeds' past 18 Premier League games, and over the course of this season, they’ve seen Over 2.5 goals in 68.8% of their games on the road. Incredibly that total has been reached in eight of nine road games since the start of December, and as much as things have “changed” under the new reg.
Crystal Palace, despite having some incredibly talented young defensive players, has also leaked goals at times this season. 56.3% of their games at Selhurst Park have seen Over 2.5 goals, something I expect to continue on Monday.
Plays —— Leeds Draw No Bet (+135)
—— Total Over 2.5 (-115)
