Conference Championships Trends - Something to Consider

[Tanko]

Points to ponder:

Last year during the 32 Conference Tournaments #1 seeds won 17 of the tournaments. If you ranked conf teams by eFG% rankings from the end of the regular season (which closely matches the actual conference standings - but not exactly) they won 19 of the tournaments (59.4%).

How can we leverage this?

Assuming the stats hold true again this year (a huge assumption) and 19 out of 32 conference winners are #1 in eFG%, if you parlay every 3 team combination of teams ranked #1 by eFG%, and get greater than ~6-1 odds on the parlay bets, you can come out ahead.

Now, I don't advocate betting all these parlays. But, it is interesting to keep in mind how important it is to pick #1 seeds (and even better... #1 ranked by eFG%) when selecting Tourny Conf Champions.

Also realize that of the remaining 13 games in which the #1 ranked eFG% team did not win, the #2 ranked won 9. That's 28 out of 32 (87%) #1 or #2 ranked eFG% teams in each conference, won their Conf Tourny.








Yeah. I know its all useless BS.... but, I was bored today with number crunching and came across this data.

 

[Tanko]

You should be able to easily get greater than 6-1 odds picking 3 tournament champions from the front runners in the conference in a parlay.

But more importantlly, on any Conf Tourny futures bet, if you pick team, you should consider #1 and #2 seeds first. This seems obvious, but 87% hit rate last year was much higher than I ever expected.

 

[jjgold]

Every game a new game
Every year a new year

 

[BMR Genie]

Thank you for sharing your analysis, Tank!

 

[KingKolzig]

#1 seeds maybe looser cause already in the dance

 

[Tanko]

#1 seeds maybe looser cause already in the dance

That could be part of the reasoning.

I just was surprised so many #1 and #2's win their tourny. 87%...
Only 4 tournys were won by a lower eFG% ranked team. Of those 4, 3 were #3 ranked eFG% teams.

 

[KingKolzig]

Jds was right with ravens but they fell behind as Andy took the ball. Only way the ravens lose was tightness and turnovers