Wagerallsports
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2018
- Messages
- 52,842
Ranking first-round QBs of past five NFL drafts vs. 2024 prospects
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALWe've already heard a lot about the 2024 NFL draft's talented quarterback duo at the top of the class: USC's Caleb Williams and North Carolina's Drake Maye. They are both in serious contention to go No. 1 overall next April, and Williams is getting "generational talent" buzz before the 2023 college football season even kicks off. But how do they stack up as prospects against other top-tier signal-callers?
To get a sense of the best quarterback prospects of the past five years, we stacked the 16 passers who were taken in Round 1 over 2019-2023. That conversation covers the likes of Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young and Kyler Murray. Then we dropped Williams and Maye -- the only two first-round graded QBs in my evaluations right now -- into the mix and ranked them against those recent Day 1 selections.
We polled NFL scouts, decision-makers and analysts to help build the list, and pre-draft grades were the only consideration here. What each quarterback has done as a pro isn't factored in at all, and over- or underperforming in the NFL relative to draft stock doesn't matter. We're just piling all 18 quarterbacks together as though they were all in the same draft class. So who is No. 1 on the list as the top quarterback prospect going back to 2019? You might be surprised ...
1. Caleb Williams (2024)
Potential is a scary word when it comes to prospects, but USC's Williams is loaded with it. At 6-foot-1 and 220 pounds, he has excellent arm strength and ability to create on the move. He's a true playmaker and an artist, throwing for 4,537 yards and accounting for 52 total touchdowns last season, his first with the Trojans after transferring from Oklahoma."Every play is successful because he either throws on time or moves and makes it happen. He has that off-script [Patrick] Mahomes factor," one AFC scout said.
Williams is also coming from Lincoln Riley's scheme, which has produced NFL quarterbacks Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts. There's a season of college football left for Williams, but right now, his star is shining brighter than any quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck (2012).
An NFL general manager told me, "There's potential and then there's what he's done in a year and a half as a starter. He's not only the best quarterback in college, but he has the best of all the traits needed to be great."
2. Trevor Lawrence (2021)
Drafted: No. 1, Jacksonville JaguarsLawrence was deemed the next great quarterback prospect before he even took a snap for Clemson, as the replacement for incumbent Kelly Bryant. The consensus five-star prep recruit became a two-and-a-half-year starter for the Tigers, posting a 34-2 record and racking up 90 passing touchdowns before becoming the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft.
Lawrence's combination of arm strength, mobility, creativity and 6-foot-6 size stood out in the lead-up to that draft, and after a rocky rookie year, Lawrence threw 25 touchdown passes in 2022. He has reshaped the culture and expectations in Jacksonville in just two years, leading the team to an AFC South title and its first playoff win since 2017.
"There was Luck, but then there was Lawrence, who was like a better -- faster, bigger, stronger arm -- version. Trevor was 2.0," one NFL GM said.
3. Joe Burrow (2020)
Drafted: No. 1, Cincinnati BengalsBurrow was a one-year wonder at LSU -- the only reason he wasn't seen as a generational prospect -- but he was still exceptional enough to shoot past sure-thing prospects Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert in the 2020 draft. His 60-touchdown, Heisman Trophy-winning 2019 season is the best that most scouts have seen from a college passer, which led the Bengals to taking him at the top spot.
"Burrow was so clutch, so cool, you almost didn't care he was older [at 24 years old] when he came out," an AFC area scout said. "And he's backed it up!"
Burrow now ranks as one of the three best quarterbacks in the league, completing 68.2% of his passes over three seasons and bringing Cincinnati to at least the AFC Championship Game in back-to-back years.
4. Drake Maye (2024)
The reigning ACC Player of the Year, Offensive Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year has already drawn comparisons to Herbert for his size (6-foot-4, 225 pounds), arm strength and power as a runner."Maye would be QB1 in most drafts," an AFC area scout said.
In his first season under center for the Tar Heels, he improved the North Carolina offense, throwing for 38 touchdown passes and just seven interceptions while also running for seven more scores. Maye is still an unknown with just 14 games under his belt, but the potential is outstanding. It might seem like the No. 1 spot in 2024 firmly belongs to Williams, but Maye should be a worthy competitor over the next nine months.
"If Caleb Williams weren't in this draft, we'd be talking about Maye as a generational prospect," an AFC executive said. "He still might be one."
5. Tua Tagovailoa (2020)
Drafted: No. 5, Miami Dolphins"Tank for Tua" was a real thing thanks to the instincts, poise and accuracy that the Alabama passer showed during his time in Tuscaloosa. The comparisons to Drew Brees and Steve Young were real, too. Tagovailoa dominated in college with touch, timing, anticipation and field vision, but he also showed enough mobility to frustrate defenses.
"The only knock on Tua was a lack of size and the injury concerns -- which ended up being pretty significant," an AFC scout said. "But if we're talking about a grade on the film alone, he's one of the best of the last decade, hands down."
Even with a serious hip injury putting his pro prospects in question, the film was good enough for Tagovailoa to be selected at No. 5 overall in a loaded QB class. He got off to a tough start in the NFL but then had a really strong 2022 season, finishing third in Total QBR (68.8) and averaging 8.9 yards per attempt. Tagovailoa did miss some time, though, with multiple stints in the concussion protocol over the course of the campaign.
6. Justin Herbert (2020)
Drafted: No. 6, Los Angeles ChargersThe 2019 college season was a race between Herbert and Tagovailoa to be the first pick ... until Burrow happened. Herbert dazzled at Oregon with arm strength, field vision and a cool demeanor in the pocket. His biggest knock was a lack of running experience. But in the NFL, Herbert has not only become a top-five pro passer but also stood out as a ball carrier (4.0 yards per carry over his career).
"He's a dog and a leader. And he's made [pre-draft] Carson Wentz comparisons look silly," an NFC area scout said.
Herbert has thrown 95 touchdown passes to 35 interceptions over three seasons and is fourth in Total QBR since entering the league (64.1).
7. Bryce Young (2023)
Drafted: No. 1, Carolina Panthers"If Bryce Young were 6-foot-2 and 215 pounds, he would be on your list as high as Burrow and maybe Trevor. His game is that good."
That's how an NFL general manager put it, and he's probably right. Young is a silky smooth operator in the pocket with expert-level touch and timing. He's tough, poised and creative. But he's undersized at 5-foot-10 and 204 pounds, and that is the only reason the 2023 No. 1 overall pick is ranked this low on the list. Young's game and upside as an NFL quarterback are top tier.
Young followed up a Heisman-winning 2021 season by throwing for 3,328 yards, 32 touchdown passes and five interceptions at Alabama in 2022. And as training camps kick off, the Panthers have already deemed him QB1.
8. Zach Wilson (2021)
Drafted: No. 2, New York JetsIt might seem like a distant memory now, but before the 2021 draft, there were some teams that had Wilson rated higher than Lawrence. Wilson played off platform and off schedule, and he dominated defenses with an excellent deep ball and awesome ability to evade pass-rushers. He hit his peak at the right time, coming alive in his junior season and shrugging off injury issues that plagued his first two seasons at BYU.
Early returns on those evaluations haven't been good, as he has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in both of his pro campaigns. And now, he's the backup in New York after the Jets traded for Aaron Rodgers. But when restacking prospects based on pre-draft scouting reports, Wilson still scores very highly. And at just 23 years old, there is still time for him to regain some of that star power.
9. C.J. Stroud (2023)
Drafted: No. 2, Houston TexansA 25-game starter at Ohio State, Stroud left college with a fantastic 21-4 record and a wild 85-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio that helped him become the No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft. He hit every mark in terms of arm strength, mobility, poise and toughness. Scouts raved about his final performance -- a playoff showdown against Georgia -- and his combine workout, and there were some who preferred the known commodity of Stroud's tape to the question mark of Young's size. Stroud finished last season with an 88.9 Total QBR (second in the nation) and completed 66.3% of his passes.
"Stroud, if he had played at LSU or Clemson or Alabama, would have been the first overall pick. Teams got scared by the helmet and forgot to scout the player," a longtime AFC area scout said, referencing the Buckeyes' QB-friendly scheme and a few recent OSU quarterback prospects who haven't worked out in the NFL.
10. Kyler Murray (2019)
Drafted: No. 1, Arizona CardinalsMurray was a two-sport star who was drafted in the top 10 by both the Oakland Athletics of the MLB and the Cardinals in the NFL. He entered draft season in 2019 riding high on the Lincoln Riley hype at Oklahoma and benefitted from players like Mahomes and Lamar Jackson taking over the NFL with dynamic playmaking and dual-threat ability. With one great season of play in Norman, Murray won a Heisman Trophy and became the go-to quarterback for newly hired coach Kliff Kingsbury in Arizona.
Murray's lack of size (5-foot-10) and experience (17 college starts) pushed him down the list, but we can't forget the excitement surrounding him before the 2019 draft. He has gone on to a roughly 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio as a pro and has averaged 5.8 yards per rush while scoring 23 times on the ground. Murray is currently recovering from a torn ACL.
11. Trey Lance (2021)
Drafted: No. 3, San Francisco 49ersThe 6-foot-4, 224-pound Lance needed to start just 17 games at FCS-level North Dakota State -- including one single game in his final season -- to convince Niners GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan to trade up the board to select him at No. 3 overall. He wowed scouts with upside that many compared to Mahomes and Josh Allen thanks to Lance's ability to torch defenses with his running and field vision.
Lance's NFL career has yet to get going because of injury and the rise of Brock Purdy, but the story is not completely written on him just yet. At only 23 years old, Lance has a lot of football ahead of him.
12. Anthony Richardson (2023)
Drafted: No. 4, Indianapolis ColtsRichardson perfectly personifies the modern quarterback in terms of what teams want: big, strong and fast, with an arm that can easily hit 75 yards when given room to operate. But he started just 13 games in college and had fewer than 300 pass attempts in a Florida offense that never seemed on track after a coaching change. Richardson also completed just 54.7% of his passes and threw 24 touchdowns to 15 interceptions in college. So while there was a ton of upside when the Colts took him at No. 4 in April, there was also a lot of risk.
Richardson would be atop a list of the most talented quarterback prospects of the past five years when it comes to physical traits and potential. He has a huge arm and ran a 4.43 in the 40-yard dash at the combine. But as a prospect, he had his detractors because of the lack of experience and accuracy concerns.
13. Justin Fields (2021)
Drafted: No. 11, Chicago BearsWhen Fields was entering the draft, there were some scouts and evaluators who saw him equal to Lawrence, much like he was when the two were coming out of high school. But others believed Fields was propped up by the scheme and talent around him at Ohio State. That's why the two-time Heisman finalist who went 20-2 and threw for 67 touchdown passes to nine interceptions fell to No. 11 overall in a quarterback-driven league.
"The concerns about Fields coming out were that he couldn't process the entire field fast enough or throw guys open. The jury is out on that part of his game still, but there's no denying he's becoming a much greater running threat than anyone could have imagined," an NFC area scout said.
Fields had a tough rookie year but threw 17 touchdown passes and ran for over 1,000 yards last season. However, he also took 55 sacks in 2022 and has completed just 59.7% of his passes over two years.
14. Mac Jones (2021)
Drafted: No. 15, New England PatriotsJones, the fifth quarterback drafted in the 2021 class, has had an up-and-down career thus far, but coming out of Alabama, he was a highly regarded pocket passer with limited upside but a safe floor. He completed 77.4% of his throws during his final year with the Crimson Tide, throwing 41 TD passes to four interceptions.
15. Daniel Jones (2019)
Drafted: No. 6, New York GiantsIn the NFL, Jones has become a better version of his college tape under coach Brian Daboll while showcasing a dual-threat ability he flashed in college. But before the 2019 draft, many evaluators pointed to turnover woes. He had 29 interceptions and 13 lost fumbles over three seasons at Duke. That followed him into the pros, where he threw 22 interceptions and lost 17 fumbles in his first two years.
"I didn't see it [with Jones], but we knew a team would draft him way too early," one scout said.
Daboll helped turn Jones' game around, and the QB led New York to a playoff win last season after he finished tied for sixth in Total QBR (60.8). The Giants recently signed Jones to a four-year, $160 million contract that proves the team's commitment to him.
16. Dwayne Haskins (2019)
Drafted: No. 15, Washington CommandersA one-year starter at Ohio State, Haskins won 13 of his 14 starts while accumulating 4,831 passing yards and 50 touchdown throws en route to numerous postseason awards. He was knocked in pre-draft conversations for his lack of experience, though.
"I loved Haskins," one area scout said, "and if he had gone somewhere other than Washington to start out, I think he would have had a better shot at success. There, they needed a savior, and he needed a supporting cast."
Haskins spent two years in Washington and one year in Pittsburgh (12 career TD passes) before he died in April 2022.
17. Jordan Love (2020)
Drafted: No. 26, Green Bay PackersA 2.5-year starter in college, Love went from potential top-five pick as a sophomore to a fringe first-rounder following a coaching change before his junior season. The strong-armed Love would leave Utah State with 60 passing scores and nine rushing touchdowns. Scouts really liked his arm strength but were concerned about his touch and timing.
"He was one of those dudes I hoped wouldn't have to play right away, because what he was asked to do in college was in no way NFL stuff," one scout said.
Love was a work in progress when he entered the NFL and has had three seasons to sit, learn and improve without being under pressure to play immediately. Now he'll replace a legend in Aaron Rodgers as the Packers' starting quarterback with just 83 career passes under his belt.
18. Kenny Pickett (2022)
Drafted: No. 20, Pittsburgh Steelers"In any other draft, this dude is not a first-rounder," said one scout who covered Pickett's time in college. "No way."
But another argued that "first-rounders are first-rounders, and he had toughness, mobility, accuracy and leadership skills that earned him that grade."
As you can see, Pickett was and remains polarizing when asking evaluators to grade his game. He was the only quarterback taken in the first round of a weak 2022 class for the position, and the only one drafted in the first 73 picks. Pickett did throw 42 touchdown passes during his final year at Pitt, but he also lacked arm strength. In his rookie year, he completed just 63% of his throws and threw nine interceptions over 13 games. Heading into his second season with the Steelers, he has a chance to prove doubters wrong.
