We've got 7 games with lines so far.
Anyone see any edges for this weekends games?
The two I like are Nevada -9 vs NM St and I also am eyeing Northwestern +13 vs Nebraska.
Until the Corn Huskers show me they can play big-boy ball, I'm leaning against them.
Any leans/edges you see?
I posted an article in NCAAF sub forum. I’m kinda liking New Mexico +9 at home.
New Mexico State Over 2.5 wins -120 (Caesars)
Let’s end with my hold your nose, stinker special. Last year I bet UTEP over 3 wins, which hit in early October. New Mexico State may not cash that early, although I believe they have a schedule that could produce 4-5 wins this season.
The schedule is tough with road games at Oklahoma, TCU, Iowa State, Baylor, and West Virginia. However, K-State could be favored in the rest of their games. Steal a couple of those on the road, and we will be in good shape come December.
Jerry Kill is back after retiring as Minnesota’s head coach in 2015 because of health issues. Kill hit the transfer portal hard to improve New Mexico State’s talent, and even though this was a two-win team last season, the defense should be much improved with nine starters returning and a few instant impact transfers.
The X-factor with this bet is new quarterback Diego Pavia, who led New Mexico Military Institute to a JUCO
national championshiplast season. On paper, Pavia looks like a perfect fit for the multiple-formation offense Kill wants to run.
Despite playing at Minnesota and Wisconsin early in the season, the schedule sets up well for New Mexico State. The Aggies are a 12-point dog in the opener against Nevada but the Wolfpack are a team I think will really struggle this year. That’s a game New Mexico State could steal.
Even if the Aggies lose the opener, games against Hawaii, FIU, New Mexico, UMass, and Lamar are all winnable. With that schedule, three wins in Kill’s first year is a realistic goal.
Besides, you can’t call yourself a degenerate until you’ve sweated New Mexico State football games for four months hoping for three wins.
