College Football Picks for Week 12 | Best Bets from Today’s Early Games

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Illinois vs. Michigan​

Saturday, Nov. 19 12 p.m. ET ABC

Illinois +18

By Mike McNamara

I love this spot for the Illini to hang inside the number and get the cover.

First of all, getting 18 points in a game where the total currently sits at 41 is a ton. Michigan isn’t exactly a high-powered offense and the Wolverines do most of their damage on the ground, which should result in less possessions.

Additionally, the bigger reason why I love this spot is where the game falls on the schedule for both teams.

With Ohio State on deck, I think it’s pretty fair to assume that Jim Harbaugh may go a little bit vanilla in this one. Michigan will naturally have one eye on the showdown with the Buckeyes next week, and I don’t see Harbaugh wanting to show Ryan Day all that much on Saturday.

Meanwhile, for Illinois, I think you’ll see a fired up Illini team giving its best effort to salvage things after a really disappointing two week stretch.

Bret Bielema’s team was in great position to take the Big Ten West before squandering two games at home to Michigan State and Purdue.

Despite those losses, the Illini are still alive in the West, and this has still been a season that has far exceeded anyone in Champaign’s expectations. Expect Bielema’s bunch to give it everything they have on the road as a heavy underdog.

Illinois has the defense to hang around in this one, which should result in a comfortable cover. Give me the Illini with the points.

Pick: Illinois +18 (Play to +17)

 

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Washington State vs. Arizona​

By Cody Goggin

Arizona just finished running through the gauntlet of its schedule and played far better than expected. The Wildcats lost to Oregon, Washington, USC and Utah, but played competitively in most of those games.

Last week, the Wildcats went on the road and upset UCLA.

A large part of the success for Arizona during this stretch has been its passing game, which ranks 28th in Success Rate and 25th in PPA. The Wildcats pass the ball at the 14th-highest rate in the nation, largely due to the game scripts they find themselves in.

Of the teams that Arizona has played in the last month, none of them have had great passing defenses, allowing Arizona to hang around in the game or even win in the case of UCLA.

Utah is the only Pac-12 opponent Arizona has faced that ranks better than 99th in Passing Success Rate Allowed this season The Utes were able to hold Arizona to its lowest point total in conference play (20).

Washington State’s defense will be able to challenge Arizona in the same way. The Cougars rank 31st in Passing Success Rate against and 28th in passing PPA. According to PFF, Washington State has the 27th-highest coverage grade in the country and the 40th-highest-graded defense overall.

The main reason that Arizona has struggled to win games this year despite its passing offense being good has been its defense.. This unit ranks dead last in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and is 131st in Overall Success Rate.

The Wildcats are also 130th in rushing PPA, 129th in points per opportunity allowed, 119th in passing PPA and 126th in Passing Success Rate.

Washington State’s offense is far from elite, but it will be good enough to take advantage of this Wildcats defense.

The Cougars throw the ball at the third-highest rate in the country and rank 66th in Success Rate through the air. They also rank 41st in Rushing Success Rate, 27th in rushing PPA and second in Rushing Explosiveness.

I believe that this game will come down to the mismatch that the Washington State defense poses for Arizona in the passing game. If the Cougars can get to 30 points against this Wildcats defense, they will be able to cover without issue.

Pick: Washington State -3.5 (Play to -5.5)

 

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2-0 Rock-N-Roll
If only l was more disciplined and not play my own sorry ass picks lol

Henceforth