College Football Odds & Best Bets: 4 Saturday Night

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Tennessee vs. South Carolina​

By Patrick Strollo

I will cut right to the chase here and address the elephant in the column of 22 points.

Look, it’s a ton of chalk. But with the way things stand right now in the College Football Playoff rankings, Tennessee isn’t in control of its own destiny.

The Volunteers, the former No .1 team in the country and America’s darling just a few short weeks ago, need help to crack back into the top four teams in the country.

This help will likely come very soon with TCU getting another massive road test and Michigan visiting Ohio State the following week. Until then, it’s all on the Vols to show the CFP what they’re made of.

In the meantime, Tennessee has to continue to build its resume and seek validation from the CFP committee in the form of mangling its opponents. Right now, said validation is going to come in the form of running up the score.

Like last week, when Tennessee punched Missouri in the throat and easily covered the 19-point spread, the Volunteers will again have to show that middle-of-the-road SEC opponents are not an issue for them.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t touch on how statistically strong the Volunteers are on offense. The Hendon Hooker-led offense ranks first in the nation in scoring, putting up an average of 47.4 points per game.

The weather looks perfect for a Saturday evening horse race with a high of 60 degrees and no precipitation in the forecast.

I am projecting Tennessee as 19-point favorites on the road against the Gamecocks, but I am comfortable laying the 22 given what Tennessee has to accomplish to wind back up in the good graces of the CFP committee.

Lay the heavy chalk in Columbia, as the Volunteers are a team that’s very well situated to run the tally up and work themselves back into the National Championship picture.

Pick: Tennessee -22 (Play to -23)

 

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Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma​

By Thomas Schlarp

In Spencer Sanders’ health we trust.

This spread only makes sense if Sanders was 100% going to miss this game, and that just isn’t the case. Sanders was supposed to miss all of last week against Iowa State with a shoulder injury, until Mike Gundy decided late in the third quarter that he needed a jolt of life in the offense for his trailing Cowboys.

Sanders promptly went in and threw a touchdown to give the Cowboys a lead they wouldn’t relinquish.

That series of events indicates to me that Gundy was likely just resting Sanders as a precautionary measure for Bedlam, and he’ll be more than good to go Saturday night.

And with Sanders in action, I think the Cowboys’ offense has the edge in what will be a matchup of two of the worst defenses in the Big 12.

Sanders means everything to the Cowboys.

In the five games this season against Power Five competition that Sanders wasn’t injured, the Cowboys averaged 38.4 points and 439.8 yards per game.

In the three games he either completely missed or was partially sidelined with injury, the Cowboys averaged 12 points and 291.7 yards per game.

Oklahoma has just one win over a team with a winning record, and that came against a Kansas team fielding its backup quarterback. With Sanders playing — which I strongly believe he will — the Cowboys could very well come away with a straight-up win, let alone catching a touchdown.

Pick: Oklahoma State +7.5 (Play to +7)

 

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Utah vs. Oregon​

By Action Analytics

The Pac-12 cannibalized itself out of the College Football Playoff, but that doesn’t mean we should stop paying attention to the conference out west.

This game should be highly entertaining, with two top-15 teams set to play for a shot in the Pac-12 title game and Rose Bowl.

I’ll get right into it. We have Oregon projected as small favorites in this game, and I will happily take it as a slight underdog.
While Oregon’s defense leaves a lot to be desired, I believe its offense will be enough to propel it to victory.

In particular, the Ducks have a chance to absolutely gash the Utes on the ground with their running game. Oregon ranks first and second in rushing play EPA/Play and Success Rate, respectively, while Utah ranks 96th and 66th defensively in those categories.

A large part of this is due to Bo Nix’s effectiveness with his legs.

The big question for Oregon is: will it be able to contain Utah when it throws the ball.

The Ducks’ passing defense has been atrocious so far this year, but their saving grace may be that the Utes are just average at scoring touchdowns when crossing opponent’s 40-yard lines, whereas the Ducks have been elite.

If Oregon can hold Utah to a few field goals, it should be able to slip away with a win.

Pick: Oregon ML +115 (Play to +110)