The college football season officially kicks off on Aug. 27. However, before we get into wagering on games for 12 hours every Saturday, there are futures bets with plenty of value to hit.
Futures betting isn’t for everyone because it takes months for a potential payout. I enjoy futures betting and have been doing it for over three decades. Each summer I break down every college football team in search of the best value in the futures market.
Here are five favorite plays heading into the 2002 college football season.
Syracuse finished 5-7 last year but went through a stretch in October where they dropped three straight games by a field goal to Florida State (33-30), Wake Forest (40-37 OT) and Clemson (17-14). In reality, the Orange were a couple of plays from being an 8-win team.
Syracuse is returning 80 percent of last season’s production, which ranks 15th in the country. As I mentioned above, Syracuse just missed out on a bowl game last season and is now one of the most experienced teams in college football.
Returning production can be an overrated metric sometimes. If a team is returning a ton of players but they weren’t very good last season, improvement isn’t guaranteed. I don’t believe that’s the case with SU.
Is it crazy to think this team can match last year’s win total and cash the Over 4.5? I say it’s crazy to think they won’t.
The most essential person returning to the Syracuse campus this fall is star running back Sean Tucker. One of the top backs in the nation, Tucker rushed for 1,496 yards (6.1 YPC) and 14 touchdowns as a freshman. He and quarterback Garrett Shrader combined for 2,277 yards on the ground, and Shrader didn’t even start the first three games.
This season, Tucker will be running behind an experienced offensive line that paved the way for SU to rush for 213.5 yards per game last season, 16th-best in the country. My projections have Syracuse as a top-20 rushing offense again in 2022. Last season, 19 of the top-20 rushing offenses won at least five games, with Navy being the only exception.
Offensive coordinator Robert Anae and quarterback coach Jason Beck come over from Virginia, where they helped the Cavaliers rank second in passing offense at 392.6 yards per game. If the passing game can just be average this year, Syracuse’s offense will be tough to stop.
Looking at the schedule, UConn and Wagner look like two wins. The key is the opener at home against Louisville. If the Orange gets that one, it should be smooth sailing to Over 4.5 wins. My largest CFB futures wager this offseason is on Air Force to win the Mountain West Conference at +450. I love everything about this Falcons team and believe they have the talent to reach their first MWC title game since 2015.
Air Force returns 15 starters from last season’s 10-win team. That’s the most starters the Falcons have returned in eight years, and keep in mind, this is a team whose three losses last season were all by seven points or less. Air Force was actually a couple of possessions away from an unbeaten season in 2021 and barely missed out on the MWC Championship Game.
Led by quarterback Haaziq Daniels, this is the most talented Falcons team in a decade. Daniels is a whiz at running Air Force’s spread option offense that led the nation in rushing at 327.7 yards per game last year. Add in a defense that should again be one of the conference’s best after ranking fourth in the country, and there is a lot to like about the Falcons.
The schedule really sets up nicely for a title run. Air Force gets Boise State at home where it’s 36-9 since 2014 and misses Fresno State. I think the Falcons can eclipse last year’s 10 wins, so getting them +450 to win the conference is a steal.
O’Connell threw for 3,712 yards and 28 touchdowns last season on his way to second-team All-Big Ten honors. Not only is O’Connell arguably the most underrated player in the Big Ten, I think he may be the most underrated player in the country. While Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska all have question marks at the quarterback position, O’Connell returns to lead an offense that finished second to only Ohio State in the Big Ten last season.
The Boilermakers also return nine starters from a defense that ranked 34th in scoring and 48th overall in 2021. They do lose two key players in DE George Karlaftis and LB Jaylan Alexander. However, if this unit can finish with similar numbers as last season, the offense is good enough to carry the Boilermakers to the Big Ten Championship Game.
Last season Purdue’s four losses came against Notre Dame, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Ohio State, so they do need to perform better against tougher competition. Trips to Minnesota and Wisconsin, along with a home game against Iowa, will likely decide this bet.
Win or lose, +550 on the Boilermakers to win the Big Ten West is too good to pass up.
I mentioned above that returning production matters, but so does the quality of that production. The Wildcats return 14 starters from last season’s 8-5 team, with 10 being All-Conference players. In other words, out of all the Big 12 teams in 2022, Kansas State returns the most quality production on both sides of the ball.
The Wildcats lose Skylar Thompson at quarterback but replace him with Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez. Martinez had an up-and-down career with the Cornhuskers, although his strength is running the football. He should fit well into a Kansas State offense that likes to get the quarterback on the run and throw high-percentage passes.
Martinez battled through injuries last season, dealing with a high ankle sprain and then tearing his labrum in November. However, Sports Injury Central gives him a SIC Score of 92 for the upcoming season, so health shouldn’t be an issue. Look for Martinez and running back Deuce Vaughn to lead one of the nation’s top rushing offenses.
Chris Klieman is one of my favorite CFB coaches. He always gets the most out of his talent. This might be Klieman’s most talented team since he arrived at Kansas State in 2019 and one that has a legitimate shot at reaching the Big 12 title game.
The schedule is tough with road games at Oklahoma, TCU, Iowa State, Baylor, and West Virginia. However, K-State could be favored in the rest of their games. Steal a couple of those on the road, and we will be in good shape come December.
Jerry Kill is back after retiring as Minnesota’s head coach in 2015 because of health issues. Kill hit the transfer portal hard to improve New Mexico State’s talent, and even though this was a two-win team last season, the defense should be much improved with nine starters returning and a few instant impact transfers.
The X-factor with this bet is new quarterback Diego Pavia, who led New Mexico Military Institute to a JUCO national championshiplast season. On paper, Pavia looks like a perfect fit for the multiple-formation offense Kill wants to run.
Despite playing at Minnesota and Wisconsin early in the season, the schedule sets up well for New Mexico State. The Aggies are a 12-point dog in the opener against Nevada but the Wolfpack are a team I think will really struggle this year. That’s a game New Mexico State could steal.
Even if the Aggies lose the opener, games against Hawaii, FIU, New Mexico, UMass, and Lamar are all winnable. With that schedule, three wins in Kill’s first year is a realistic goal.
Besides, you can’t call yourself a degenerate until you’ve sweated New Mexico State football games for four months hoping for three wins.
Futures betting isn’t for everyone because it takes months for a potential payout. I enjoy futures betting and have been doing it for over three decades. Each summer I break down every college football team in search of the best value in the futures market.
Here are five favorite plays heading into the 2002 college football season.
Syracuse finished 5-7 last year but went through a stretch in October where they dropped three straight games by a field goal to Florida State (33-30), Wake Forest (40-37 OT) and Clemson (17-14). In reality, the Orange were a couple of plays from being an 8-win team.
Syracuse is returning 80 percent of last season’s production, which ranks 15th in the country. As I mentioned above, Syracuse just missed out on a bowl game last season and is now one of the most experienced teams in college football.
Returning production can be an overrated metric sometimes. If a team is returning a ton of players but they weren’t very good last season, improvement isn’t guaranteed. I don’t believe that’s the case with SU.
Is it crazy to think this team can match last year’s win total and cash the Over 4.5? I say it’s crazy to think they won’t.
The most essential person returning to the Syracuse campus this fall is star running back Sean Tucker. One of the top backs in the nation, Tucker rushed for 1,496 yards (6.1 YPC) and 14 touchdowns as a freshman. He and quarterback Garrett Shrader combined for 2,277 yards on the ground, and Shrader didn’t even start the first three games.
This season, Tucker will be running behind an experienced offensive line that paved the way for SU to rush for 213.5 yards per game last season, 16th-best in the country. My projections have Syracuse as a top-20 rushing offense again in 2022. Last season, 19 of the top-20 rushing offenses won at least five games, with Navy being the only exception.
Offensive coordinator Robert Anae and quarterback coach Jason Beck come over from Virginia, where they helped the Cavaliers rank second in passing offense at 392.6 yards per game. If the passing game can just be average this year, Syracuse’s offense will be tough to stop.
Looking at the schedule, UConn and Wagner look like two wins. The key is the opener at home against Louisville. If the Orange gets that one, it should be smooth sailing to Over 4.5 wins. My largest CFB futures wager this offseason is on Air Force to win the Mountain West Conference at +450. I love everything about this Falcons team and believe they have the talent to reach their first MWC title game since 2015.
Air Force returns 15 starters from last season’s 10-win team. That’s the most starters the Falcons have returned in eight years, and keep in mind, this is a team whose three losses last season were all by seven points or less. Air Force was actually a couple of possessions away from an unbeaten season in 2021 and barely missed out on the MWC Championship Game.
Led by quarterback Haaziq Daniels, this is the most talented Falcons team in a decade. Daniels is a whiz at running Air Force’s spread option offense that led the nation in rushing at 327.7 yards per game last year. Add in a defense that should again be one of the conference’s best after ranking fourth in the country, and there is a lot to like about the Falcons.
The schedule really sets up nicely for a title run. Air Force gets Boise State at home where it’s 36-9 since 2014 and misses Fresno State. I think the Falcons can eclipse last year’s 10 wins, so getting them +450 to win the conference is a steal.
Purdue to win Big Ten West +550 (Caesars)
The Boilermakers have the fourth best odds to win the Big Ten West behind Wisconsin (+125), Nebraska (+240) and Iowa (+500). That’s good value for a team with 15 returning starters and the division’s best quarterback in Aidan O’Connell.O’Connell threw for 3,712 yards and 28 touchdowns last season on his way to second-team All-Big Ten honors. Not only is O’Connell arguably the most underrated player in the Big Ten, I think he may be the most underrated player in the country. While Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska all have question marks at the quarterback position, O’Connell returns to lead an offense that finished second to only Ohio State in the Big Ten last season.
The Boilermakers also return nine starters from a defense that ranked 34th in scoring and 48th overall in 2021. They do lose two key players in DE George Karlaftis and LB Jaylan Alexander. However, if this unit can finish with similar numbers as last season, the offense is good enough to carry the Boilermakers to the Big Ten Championship Game.
Last season Purdue’s four losses came against Notre Dame, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Ohio State, so they do need to perform better against tougher competition. Trips to Minnesota and Wisconsin, along with a home game against Iowa, will likely decide this bet.
Win or lose, +550 on the Boilermakers to win the Big Ten West is too good to pass up.
Kansas State to win Big 12 +1200 (BetMGM)
The Big 12 looks to be wide-open this year with multiple teams that you can make a strong argument for winning the conference. The team I really like is Kansas State at +1200.I mentioned above that returning production matters, but so does the quality of that production. The Wildcats return 14 starters from last season’s 8-5 team, with 10 being All-Conference players. In other words, out of all the Big 12 teams in 2022, Kansas State returns the most quality production on both sides of the ball.
The Wildcats lose Skylar Thompson at quarterback but replace him with Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez. Martinez had an up-and-down career with the Cornhuskers, although his strength is running the football. He should fit well into a Kansas State offense that likes to get the quarterback on the run and throw high-percentage passes.
Martinez battled through injuries last season, dealing with a high ankle sprain and then tearing his labrum in November. However, Sports Injury Central gives him a SIC Score of 92 for the upcoming season, so health shouldn’t be an issue. Look for Martinez and running back Deuce Vaughn to lead one of the nation’s top rushing offenses.
Chris Klieman is one of my favorite CFB coaches. He always gets the most out of his talent. This might be Klieman’s most talented team since he arrived at Kansas State in 2019 and one that has a legitimate shot at reaching the Big 12 title game.
New Mexico State Over 2.5 wins -120 (Caesars)
Let’s end with my hold your nose, stinker special. Last year I bet UTEP over 3 wins, which hit in early October. New Mexico State may not cash that early, although I believe they have a schedule that could produce 4-5 wins this season.The schedule is tough with road games at Oklahoma, TCU, Iowa State, Baylor, and West Virginia. However, K-State could be favored in the rest of their games. Steal a couple of those on the road, and we will be in good shape come December.
Jerry Kill is back after retiring as Minnesota’s head coach in 2015 because of health issues. Kill hit the transfer portal hard to improve New Mexico State’s talent, and even though this was a two-win team last season, the defense should be much improved with nine starters returning and a few instant impact transfers.
The X-factor with this bet is new quarterback Diego Pavia, who led New Mexico Military Institute to a JUCO national championshiplast season. On paper, Pavia looks like a perfect fit for the multiple-formation offense Kill wants to run.
Despite playing at Minnesota and Wisconsin early in the season, the schedule sets up well for New Mexico State. The Aggies are a 12-point dog in the opener against Nevada but the Wolfpack are a team I think will really struggle this year. That’s a game New Mexico State could steal.
Even if the Aggies lose the opener, games against Hawaii, FIU, New Mexico, UMass, and Lamar are all winnable. With that schedule, three wins in Kill’s first year is a realistic goal.
Besides, you can’t call yourself a degenerate until you’ve sweated New Mexico State football games for four months hoping for three wins.
