Eastern Michigan vs. Kent State
In a word, Kent State’s defense is a disaster.The Golden Flashes defense ranks 114th in Success Rate while allowing 8.4 yards per attempt through the air (119th). Kent’s third-down defense is 99th, and it allows opposing quarterbacks to complete 70% of their passes (130th).
If a team can avoid turning the ball over — which, to Kent’s credit, it can force teams into turnovers — then it can march up and down the field with ease.
Eastern isn’t as explosive with Austin Smith at the helm, but Kent has a way of coaxing career games out of opposing quarterbacks.
Even if Smith is simply efficient, the rest of the game plan resides with running back Samson Evans. The workhorse has torn up MAC competition in recent weeks and can be relied upon to put a hurting on Kent’s punchless run defense.
In Evans’ last three full MAC games — aside from his four-carry game against NIU in which he was hurt — he’s averaging 104 per game on the ground with eight touchdowns.
I was tempted to swing for a moneyline upset in this spot because Kent is a two-faced kind of team. Its ceiling is clearly the top offensive team in the MAC, but its cold streaks and turnover issues have betrayed it time and again this season.
The Flashes offense has sputtered so badly in the red zone this season that it’s 126th nationally in red-zone scoring percentage. That’s the kind of persistent problem that can open a team up to an upset.
But with the spread still above the key number of seven, I’ll settle for the points.
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