College Basketball Odds, Picks: Three Man Weave’s Best Bets for Wednesday (Dec. 7)

[biggins]

Rider vs. Stonehill​

By Ky McKeon

Stonehill is one of five new teams to Division I this season. Many expected the Skyhawks to be among the worst teams in the country after transitioning from D-II, but the plucky bunch from Easton, MA has held their own.

Despite ranking 334th in KenPom, Stonehill has three wins over D-I competition this season and is a respectable 5-4 against the spread.

How are the Skyhawks doing it? With shooting.

Stonehill is currently shooting 37% from deep (70th nationally) and 84.2% from the free-throw line (leads the nation). It takes high-percentage shots, plays through the post and attacks the rim.

That’s a good formula for winning.

But Stonehill is extremely vulnerable if the shots aren’t falling. The Skyhawks are a bottom-five offensive rebounding team nationally by rate, and they can struggle against more athletic defenses.

And while they have good shooters, they are punching above their weight class. Shamir Johnson, Stonehill’s leading 3-point marksman, is 52.6% from deep on the year. Last season, he shot 27.3%.

Andrew Sims, Stonehill’s primary postman, is a sparkling 87.2% from the free-throw line. He shot 73.7% in 2021-22.

Regression is likely coming.

Rider is inconsistent, but it excels at two things: offensive rebounding and being athletic. The Broncs should have beaten Providence in their opener and have shown potential as a top-tier MAAC team.

They should get countless second-chance opportunities against Stonehill on the offensive end. Defensively, they should also disallow chances in the paint and at the rim.

If Stonehill isn’t hitting outside shots, it might be difficult to score in ways that don’t involve the free-throw line. To that point, Rider has one of the highest foul rates in the country, which could doom the Broncs if Stonehill’s incendiary free throw streak is for real. That is this bet’s primary risk.

Ultimately, the athleticism edge and talent should win out tonight, though.

Pick: Rider -3.5 (Play -4.5)

 

[biggins]

Utah Valley vs. BYU​

By Ky McKeon

Utah Valley and BYU play each other just about every season. This beehive state rivalry has been mostly dominated by BYU, but UVU scored a victory under current Cougars coach Mark Pope back in 2016, and last season, the Wolverines took down BYU in overtime.

Utah Valley is well-coached and is a dangerous underdog. Despite losing its best player from last year (Fardaws Aimaq) to Texas Tech, UVU is still a force to be reckoned with in 2022-23.

The Wolverines nearly upset Wake Forest on the road and recently took down Big West contender Long Beach State by double digits.

BYU, on the other hand, is the weakest it’s been in quite some time. The Cougars have won just one game this season by double digits, had to sneak by Idaho State in their opener and are coming off a shocking defeat to South Dakota.

The question tonight shouldn’t be about BYU covering the spread but rather “can BYU win the game?”

The Wolverines have a dangerous duo in the backcourt in Justin Harmon and Trey Woodbury. Head coach Mark Madsen runs his pair of studs off ball screens and allows them to attack the defense.

BYU has been solid defending ball screens this year, but it’s done a poor job of defending without fouling. UVU should see plenty of opportunities at the line tonight.

BYU’s offense has been stuck in the mud this season. Without Alex Barcello (last year’s leading scorer), the Cougars are without a compass. New point guard Rudi Williams has underwhelmed — turning the ball over on 31% of his possessions — and there’s no true creator, nor go-to guy on the roster.

UVU’s 2-point defense has been fantastic this season. The Wolverines are 41st nationally in 2PFG% allowed and 15th in block rate. Poor creators stand no chance against this interior.

The key tonight for UVU will be stopping the Cougars in transition. Though BYU has been one of the worst transition teams nationally from an efficiency standpoint, it does look to run often and make up for its lack of half-court ability with easy shots in the open floor.

The Wolverines could stand to be better in this area defensively, but perhaps BYU’s ineptitude this season will carry over into tonight’s game.

Take the points and back a live dog against a struggling BYU squad.

Pick: Utah Valley +9 (Play to +8)

 

[biggins]

Eastern Washington vs. Cal​

By Ky McKeon

Cal should send Louisville something nice this Christmas. Thanks to the debacle of a season currently unfolding in the nation’s heartland, most casual college basketball fans have probably missed how truly awful the Golden Bears have been this year.

Cal is currently 0-9 on the season, which outpaces Louisville by one game for the worst start for a power-conference team in history.

And it’s not like Cal has faced solely juggernauts. The Golden Bears have lost outright four times this season as a favorite to UC Davis, UC San Diego, Southern and Texas State.

Tonight’s opponent, Eastern Washington, is more or less on par with those four schools and represents one of the few remaining chances for Cal to pick up a victory this season.

While Cal might finally notch a win, I’ll be putting my money against the squad with an 0-4 ATS record and -9.4 cover margin as a favorite.

EWU has had its fair share of struggles this season, but the Eagles are more than capable of hanging around and pulling an upset.

The Eagles compete on the defensive glass, defend without fouling and make opponents beat them from outside the arc. Cal has zero shooting (28.2% from deep, 330th nationally) and has relied heavily on getting to the line to score.

And while Cal usually has a significant size advantage over its opponents, it faces the tallest mid-major team in the country tonight. EWU’s top eight players are all over 6-foot-5.

EWU is also due for some shooting correction. The Eagles are just 29.9% from 3 this year after scorching the nets at a 36.2% clip in 2021-22. Only one significant sharpshooter departed from last year’s team.

The Eagles should keep this one close throughout and have a shot to win outright.

Pick: Eastern Washington +3.5 (Play to +3)

 

[biggins]

3-0 these guy’s are EnFuego