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Clemson a live dog in college hoops

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TysonsBadAss

TysonsBadAss

Joined
Dec 3, 2024
Messages
50
Looks like we are on opposite sides tonight sir

 

BMR Genie

BMR Genie

Joined
Jun 16, 2016
Messages
32,335
Clemson on the money line +105

Kentucky has played a pretty soft schedule

I like Clemsons Chase Hunter and Ian Schfflien. Good inside-outside combo. Kentucky is obviously talented but I like Clemson at home
Good luck!

What can you say about the totals? Looks like this is the only game with O/U 156 totals.
 

djefferis

djefferis

Joined
Jan 8, 2024
Messages
2,838
I don’t have a position in the game - just saying it looks like a classic trap game.

Doubt I take a position - at least unless an arbitrage presents itself here between some of the offshores and the US licensed books looking to get some action on Clemson.

No way is the public not salivating at Kentucky at a reasonable price. I also don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion Clemson wins either. Like I said - KY has the talent edge here and it’s not like Clemson has beaten any real powerhouses yet. Tough going for road teams in this early season matchups - but I’d say there’s a 50% chance Kentucky wins. It’s just that the line doesn’t match the coin flip it is - if I told you I’d give you +110 on one side of a flip - you’d be a fool to insist on laying -130.
 

TysonsBadAss

TysonsBadAss

Joined
Dec 3, 2024
Messages
50
I don’t have a position in the game - just saying it looks like a classic trap game.

Doubt I take a position - at least unless an arbitrage presents itself here between some of the offshores and the US licensed books looking to get some action on Clemson.

No way is the public not salivating at Kentucky at a reasonable price. I also don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion Clemson wins either. Like I said - KY has the talent edge here and it’s not like Clemson has beaten any real powerhouses yet. Tough going for road teams in this early season matchups - but I’d say there’s a 50% chance Kentucky wins. It’s just that the line doesn’t match the coin flip it is - if I told you I’d give you +110 on one side of a flip - you’d be a fool to insist on laying -130.
Good points
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
45,402
It's waaay too early in the season to making statistical comparisons but, I will do it anyway to gin up some discussion.


I like to compare team's 4-Factors from KenPom (see table below). Top half (yellow) is offense. Bottom half (light green) is defensive data. The green checks under each team indicate which team is better for the given stat.

Like I indicated, its a little too early to compare teams like this straight-up with any accuracy since most have played different strenghts of schedule but, Kentucky, on paper does look stronger.

Also, if you look at how well each team has done vs their expected outcome in recent games (as shown on KenPom), Kentucky has performed better than expected in every game so far this year (won their games by more than expected). Clemson has done so in only 4 out of 8 games. This is not an ATS comparison since ATS is impacted by public opinion, it is a statistical comparison of how well they've done. The "so what" of this is that Kentucky is playing better than expected while Clemson is not.

After saying all that.... KenPom does predict Clemson to win by 1 so........


1733255816855.jpeg

For those of you unfamiliar with KenPom...
AdjOE = Adjusted Offensive Efficientcy
AdjDE = Adjusted Def Effic.
eFG% = Effective Field Goal %
TO% = Turn over%
OR% = Offensive Rebound %
FTRate = Free throw rate
3P% = 3 pt %
 

jjgold

jjgold

Joined
Oct 15, 2021
Messages
31,555
I don’t have a position in the game - just saying it looks like a classic trap game.

Doubt I take a position - at least unless an arbitrage presents itself here between some of the offshores and the US licensed books looking to get some action on Clemson.

No way is the public not salivating at Kentucky at a reasonable price. I also don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion Clemson wins either. Like I said - KY has the talent edge here and it’s not like Clemson has beaten any real powerhouses yet. Tough going for road teams in this early season matchups - but I’d say there’s a 50% chance Kentucky wins. It’s just that the line doesn’t match the coin flip it is - if I told you I’d give you +110 on one side of a flip - you’d be a fool to insist on laying -130.
arbitrage is a thing of the past Jeffrey, yeh once in a while can find one usually secondary markets but small limits

Of course if you bet openers there are arbs but that's dangerous trying to guess the line move
 
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