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Checking in, headed to LA , going to Monday night football.

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
16,977
My stacking percentages forecast has Chargers winning this game outright.

The line has move toward my forecast, though there is a lot of trading left.

This forecast is 49-50-1 against the opening spread over the last 100 NFL games with as little as .1 points discrepancy against the market. In other words, a comparison that doesn't require a certain "distance" from the prediction to trigger a bet for that record.

Against the closing spread that record drops to 46-50-4.

Over the last 300 NFL plays this forecast is 157-140-3 against the closing spread, with no discrepency.

Against the moneyline, over the last 100 plays, this forecast is +3.32 units against the opening line and +.38 units against the closing line. Over the last 300 plays it is +4.68 and +1.30, respectively. I consider these numbers pretty good, and a bit lucky, considering that's against every game, basically no passing there. There was enough of an edge to beat that vig on a macro basis. That can be pretty tough to do against the closing line in the NFL.

Good Luck tonight Illini and congratulations on getting to the game, should be fun.

I wouldn't take the Cowboys to bounce back here, at least not in this spot.

:drinks:
 

flyingillini

flyingillini

Joined
Jul 25, 2022
Messages
23,228
My stacking percentages forecast has Chargers winning this game outright.

The line has move toward my forecast, though there is a lot of trading left.

This forecast is 49-50-1 against the opening spread over the last 100 NFL games with as little as .1 points discrepancy against the market. In other words, a comparison that doesn't require a certain "distance" from the prediction to trigger a bet for that record.

Against the closing spread that record drops to 46-50-4.

Over the last 300 NFL plays this forecast is 157-140-3 against the closing spread, with no discrepency.

Against the moneyline, over the last 100 plays, this forecast is +3.32 units against the opening line and +.38 units against the closing line. Over the last 300 plays it is +4.68 and +1.30, respectively. I consider these numbers pretty good, and a bit lucky, considering that's against every game, basically no passing there. There was enough of an edge to beat that vig on a macro basis. That can be pretty tough to do against the closing line in the NFL.

Good Luck tonight Illini and congratulations on getting to the game, should be fun.

I wouldn't take the Cowboys to bounce back here, at least not in this spot.

:drinks:
Wow, unreal write up here KVB aka the new and improved Justin7/ Ganch combined. God Bless you this fine day Sir!
 

JDS

JDS

Joined
Dec 11, 2021
Messages
54,697
No play for me on this game could make a case for both sides so I’m staying away even though prime time games have been kind to me.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
16,977
Cowboys have been responding well after a loss over the last couple of years, their offense just blows up the scoreboard in a lot of those games.

That said, teams that get beat by the Niners are like 1-18 the next game. The thinking is that the Niners have a rough defense, not to mention some tough offensive players, and they just plain beat up the teams they play.
 
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