CFL Friday - Ottawa at Winnipeg

[Orbison]

big line drop on this one over the last few hours...

Bombers were -9.5 but are now down to -6/-6.5 depending on where you look

anyone have info on the big line move? below is the Bombers injury list for this game, but i don't see anyone who's out that would affect the line this much unless maybe Collaros is out and just not listed yet?

CBC Sports - CFL Injuries

stats.cbc.ca

 

[Tanko]

Are there any edges on these CFL games to manipulate Orbison?
Is the market pretty active? I've not looked at CFL in years.

 

[Orbison]

Are there any edges on these CFL games to manipulate Orbison?
Is the market pretty active? I've not looked at CFL in years.

i suppose good information can potentially lead to manipulation

with respect to tonight's game, it's also possible that it's simply a matter of low betting volume (i.e. inefficient market) and thus the steam on the Redblacks is having that much more of an impact on the line

both teams have good opening week trends and each defense has some injuries according to the reports, so those two factors seem to cancel each other out. the teams also haven't faced one another in 3 years

from the blogs i've read, much of the narrative about the Redblacks is their new offensive weapons, which has many analysts thinking they're undervalued. the line on this game actually opened a couple weeks ago at Bombers -11.5, so there's been a steady amount of Redblacks money since and i'm assuming bookmakers either believe or know it's from sharp players..

 

[Tanko]

Wow. A drop from 11.5 to 6.5. Kind of a big move.
Is there any value left on Redblacks or has the market swung too far and there's and edge on the Bombers?

 

[Wagerallsports]

Don't know much about this league but willing to follow

 

[carolinakid]

most yrs the early couple of weeks you have a lot of overs

 

[carolinakid]

i dont like the dog here less that 7 pts, the 7 imo will come into play in this one, i would need+8 to take the dog in this one

 

[Orbison]

Wow. A drop from 11.5 to 6.5. Kind of a big move.
Is there any value left on Redblacks or has the market swung too far and there's and edge on the Bombers?

if i wanted the Redblacks, i'd wait for live betting at this point and hope to get a number live that was much closer to the original opening line

whereas if i wanted the Bombers, i'd take them now

for me, i'll be waiting for live betting or halftime. i'll rarely make a pre-game bet on CFL for the first few weeks of the season, this is an eye test league for me and i want to see each team play a few times preferably

 

[carolinakid]

if you can get 4 or more in live betting for the dog take it for the 1st half

 

[Tuesday]

if i wanted the Redblacks, i'd wait for live betting at this point and hope to get a number live that was much closer to the original opening line

whereas if i wanted the Bombers, i'd take them now

for me, i'll be waiting for live betting or halftime. i'll rarely make a pre-game bet on CFL for the first few weeks of the season, this is an eye test league for me and i want to see each team play a few times preferably

True enough...I bought WINNIPEG yesterday at -9.5 already...

But they should still destroy Ottawa they suck...

 

[carolinakid]

the peg might win around 7, but imo that it no way would i that the fav and lay more than a td in this one

 

[Enikk]

How about an Under??

 

[carolinakid]

the total is tough in this one as imo the dog and anything over 7 will get the money

 

[Tanko]

Sounds like we have a couple CFL guys in the forum.
Maybe we can get these games going this season and at times come to a consensus.

 

[carolinakid]

THE UNDER 24.5 was HIT for the 1st half

 

[Orbison]

Redblacks WR drops a perfect bomb which would've likely been a TD

still scoreless 1Q

 

[Orbison]

Bombers get a TD right after that, seems to always go like that when the dog leaves points on the field

 

[doofy]

Are we feeling the league out early in the season?

 

[Orbison]

Redblacks have some really nice speed at WR

they tie it at 7 after a big KO return

 

[Enikk]

THE UNDER 24.5 was HIT for the 1st half

Hope it goes over 1st half. I was gonna hit the under but was busy with poker and end of Chicago Sky win