CFL Calgary Stampeders vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers 8:30 ET 7/15/22

[Tanko]

This should be a great game. Two of the better teams in the CFL go at it tonight.

Calgary (4-0) at Winnipeg (5-0).
Line: Calgary +4 Total 48.

Lets discuss any edges you might see on this game.

 

[Tanko]

Interesting stats/notes on a first look at this game ...

Yards per game:
Winnipeg is the only team with a winning record that has negative net average yards/gm.
Offense 332 ypg
Defense 365 ypg
Net -33

Calgary Data:
Offense 403 ypg
Defense 349 ypg
Net + 55



Calgary hasn't played any team of strength this year.
Week/Team/Ranking out of 9 teams/Score
Wk1 Montreal (6th) 30-27
Wk2 Hamilton (9th) 33-30
Wk3 Edmonton (8th) 30-23
Wk5 Edmonton (8th) 49-6

Winnipeg's last game vs BC was against one of the leagues better teams. They won that on the road 43-22.
Wk1 Ottawa (7th) 19-17
Wk2 Ottawa (7th) 19-12
Wk2 Hamilton (9th) 26-12
Wk3 Toronto (5th) 23-22
Wk4 BC (3rd) 43-22

 

[Tanko]

Quarterbacks:
Both quarterbacks are rated high in the league.
Collaros (WPG) has a 106 rating, 3 INTS, 7 TDs in 5 games
Mitchell (CGP) has a 105 rating, 2 INTs, 6 TDs in 4 games


Passing game evaluation:
Calgary is going to get their passing yards in this game. They are 2nd in offensive passing (291 ypg) and Winnipeg is 2nd to last in passing defense (298 ypg).

Similarly Winnipeg will likely get their passing yards in but at a lower level.
WPG Offense passing 241 yd/gm
CGY Defense passing 258 yd/gm


Rushing Game Evaluation:
WPG rushing defense is very good. Only allowing 66 ypg. I don't see CGY getting much on the ground. WPG rushing offense is respectable but not overwhelmingly great.



The stats are starting to make me lean towards CGY + pts in this game.
I think Calgary's ability to "out-pass" Winnipeg is the key.

 

[Tanko]

As far as the total goes, I'm modeling 49-50 total. So there's not a lot of room to play over 48. Both teams have blowout wins last week (WPG>BC 43-22, CGP>EDM 49-6) but I think this one will be a closer game.

If it's a tight game or if you're leaning towards a CGY will win outright, then the OVER will likely occur.
If you believe WPG will win easily, then the UNDER is in play.

If I had to make a play, I'd go with the over. Going to watch the line and see how it moves closer to gametime.

 

[BobbyFK]

Sounds like it’s going to a good matchup! Too tough teams. Coin flip IMO

 

[Tanko]

Going with CGY and the over.

Got CGY +4 and the over 48.5 earlier as the line started to move.
Sorry for the late post.

The line is now CGY +3 and Total 50.5.
I still like the CGY +3. The 50.5 has eaten into the total pretty good but, if you believe CGY will win, the 50.5 should still be safe.

 

[carolinakid]

Damn Tanko, for some reason i did not see your thread and started one, sorry for that sir

 

[Tanko]

Damn Tanko, for some reason i did not see your thread and started one, sorry for that sir

No problem. I was tied up and not tending to it so it dumped to page 2 earlier.

 

[Tanko]

Bo Levi Mitchell needs to have a great game to make this a CGY win.

 

[carolinakid]

decided to watch the 1st half here and see if there is a good play for the 2nd half.bol Tanko

 

[Tanko]

After the Turnover.... CGY scores.

 

[Orbison]

great 1H of football. no bets here but pulling for the Stamps and Over my friend

 

[Tanko]

Really disappointed. Jordan dopping the TD and turning it over... SMH. That would have gotten the side and total wins. Then there's the 3Q play on 3rd and goal that was dropped in endzone.

So many mistakes by CGY.



Also, WPG has a QB/WR matchup Collaros to Agudosi (just returned from injury) that will be hard to stop. Agudosi is so big, no one is going to outjump him. Collaros will just have to get it close to him on passes.