Bucks -4 (@ Cavs) - thoughts ?

[djefferis]

Looking at this game and looks too simple.

What am I missing here ?

Bucks clearly a square play on the road vs Cleveland.

Cleveland has a nice streak going - but beating up on weak teams at home. Bucks have played a higher level of competition. Cavs 14-8 @ home - but take out recent 5 game winning streak vs (Washington x2, San Antonio, Brooklyn and Chicago - all sub .500 teams) and your basically a .500 team.

Bucks already beat Cavs on the road once this season by 8 on the 12/29 - despite turning the ball over quite a bit - aided by some horrible Cavs shooting. Now Cavs won’t be shooting single digits beyond the arc this time - but also not likely to get 17 Bucks TOs.

ML is -170 and probably how I will play this one - but -4 seems low to me. -5.5ish sounds more like where I’d expect the game to fall. Tell me what I’m missing here before I jump on the money line while I can before it pushes to -200 and might even dip my toes in on some of the -4.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Hopefully once football season is over I'll be able to follow NBA a little closer and offer an opinion

Sounds like you know the league well dj

 

[djefferis]

NBA - not really.

It’s easier than NFL to me - but still as tough to beat the number consistently if your playing faves.

NBA loves its superstars - no league is as dominated by single players as the NBA and recreational players focus on this. That’s what gives me pause on taking the Bucks - but I just can’t pass up on them at this price.

 

[flyingillini]

Extremely difficult game. Lots of variance within this line.

 

[jjgold]

Bucks zero defense and can lose to anyone even at home

Do not like the play

 

[BMR Genie]

The Bucks are the healthiest team rn. So, that's a big advantage.

 

[djefferis]

It’s the NBA - anyone can beat anyone - just like the NFL. These are professionals - guys playing for paychecks on losing teams and guys knowing paycheck is secure on good teams. So when one side has something to play for and the other has nothing to play for - upsets happen.

As to defense being optional in the NBA - been like that for years - only teams that care about defense are those without an offensive talent. Cavs are 4th rankled and Bucks 18th - but again how boosted are Cavs stats by playing poor teams ? You play shitty teams - you get similar matchups of guys who can’t score historically- likewise you play great teams - you get high scoring offenses.

You don’t see Detroit/Washington losing 148-130 every night do you ? Bad teams lose 108-80 in this league - only “good” team that wins low scoring matchups is in Utah.

 

[jjgold]

If you hit your shots you win all it comes down to now nba

 

[djefferis]

If you hit your shots you win all it comes down to now nba

Comes down to that in gambling too - no one goes 100% - but make more than you miss and you’ll likely be a winner.

 

[jjgold]

I think Cleveland’s been playing pretty well. Also, I’d be careful here.

 

[broncos]

Nothing obvious. The listed injuries don't look like a factor. Line smells fishy. Could be reflecting the Cavs hot streak. As you mentioned, it is against bad teams. Bucks are playing well right now. Does Jarrett Allen go for 30 again? I think Giannis and Mitchell will cancel each other out (offensively). Will Lillard, Middleton, and company have a good night also? Probably. IMO, the Bucks have better players and should win by 5 or more. But like you said, this is a team sport. If the Cavs are motivated (revenge for an earlier loss), and home crowd supported, they can win. I don't think 3.5 is too many to lay. Probably taking a chance with the Bucks.

 

[carolinakid]

Cleveland Cavaliers Injuries
Milwaukee Bucks Injuries
Updated	Pos	Player	Injury	Status
Players listed as Probable
01/16	F	Jae Crowder	Groin	Probable
08:03am	is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Cleveland
Updated	Pos	Player	Injury	Status
Players listed as "?"
01/16	G	Caris LeVert	Wrist	"?"
02:33pm	is "?" Wednesday vs Milwaukee
Players listed as OUT
01/16	SG	Ty Jerome	Ankle	OUT
02:33pm	is downgraded to OUT Wednesday vs Milwaukee
01/04	G	Ricky Rubio	Retired	OUT
01:12pm	is out for season
12/15	C	Evan Mobley	Knee	OUT
11:24am	is out indefinitely
12/15	G	Darius Garland	Jaw	OUT
10:39am	is out indefinitely

 

[broncos]

Maybe the Jazz -3.5 is a better bet?

 

[Jrgum3]

Milwaukee is good but they don't cover spreads is my only concern if backing them tonight. They rely on their offense to win games and thats great against a good defensive team like the Cavs but the Bucks defense is suspect which is probably why they have a poor record ATS. I haven't bet anything yet but I am leaning towards taking the 4.5 points with the Cavs at home given how well they've played as of late.

 

[BMR Genie]

Maybe the Jazz -3.5 is a better bet?

I will be leaning on Utah if the game is not postponed.

 

[carolinakid]

clev is now fav by 1.5 due to the player out news

 

[Jrgum3]

Giannis being out changes the game. i think its cleveland or pass now. If you still like Milwaukee take them ML because I don't trust them to cover the spread without Giannis.

 

[djefferis]

Damn - yea that definitely changes the game.

Someone knew something about this game - that’s for sure.

 

[jjgold]

Cleve blowout
Hard to bet nba unless last second

 

[flyingillini]

Cleve blowout
Hard to bet nba unless last second

Not many people under "variance" at this site.