Sharp bet
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
These NFC West rivals are both looking to rebound from Week 9 losses. The Rams (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) just fell to the Titans 28-16, losing outright as 7-point home favorites. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak for Los Angeles. Meanwhile, the 49ers (3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS) are just 1-5 over their last six games, including a 31-17 loss to the Cardinals last week, losing outright as 5.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with the Rams listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Los Angeles, expecting an easy bounce-back win and cover after a tough loss. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Los Angeles fall from -4.5 to -3.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the home dog. San Francisco has value as a contrarian home divisional dog in a heavily bet game. Kyle Shanahan is 23-17 ATS (57.5%) as a dog. Jimmy Garoppolo is 11-4 ATS (73.3%) as a dog. Conference dogs 7 or less are 46-26 ATS (63.9%). Primetime dogs are 20-9 ATS (69%).
We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 49.5 to 50.5. Primetime overs are 15-13 ATS (54%) on the season. Both teams have been profitable to the over, with Los Angeles 5-3-1 and San Francisco 5-3.