hustledouble
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2023
- Messages
- 93
Last year, I decided I would track the best closing line across multiple different sports books to get an accurate picture of which sports books were achieving the "best"/cheapest closing lines most often. We often hear about which books offer the best prices, but sometimes those opinions aren't in line with what I was seeing with my own eyes, so I wanted to track it myself. When I first mentioned this on the forum a few posters asked if I would share my results when my study was complete. This post is those results.
My primary reason for doing this was to accurately pinpoint where I should be targeting most of my bets, where I shouldn't, etc. I would think the primary results from this will be unsurprising to most sharp guys.
I initially started this tracking study on 4 July 2022 and concluded it with tonight's MLB Sunday Night baseball game (13 August 2023). I initially set out to conclude my study on the 4th of July this year, but because of the various rules changes in the MLB this year and I actually enjoyed doing this, decided I would continue tracking until I start my college football prep work, which is tomorrow, August 14th.
My resources for this study included cross-checking a variety of different odds services, both paid and free, every day. I started by using simple lookup table commands to pull data into Excel, and then verified this information for any corrections at the end of each evening manually. On days where I wasn't able to check at the end of the night, I'd check at my first opportunity later in the week.
The sports in the study are as follows:
NBA, NFL, NFL Preseason, MLB, CFB, UFC, WNBA, Major Boxing events, and Major MMA events not in the UFC (Bellator, PFL and One). I don't bet hockey so there is no hockey. Sorry.
This study tracks every game from the above leagues since 4 July 2022, excluding non-NFL exhibition games.
The books in the study are as follows:
Barstool, Bet365, BetMGM, BetNow, BetOnline, BetFred, BetRivers, Betway, Bovada, Caesars, Circa, ClutchBet, CRIS, DraftKings, DRF, FanDuel, Hard Rock, Heritage, Jazz, LowVig, PointsBet, Q, SuperBook, Tipico, YouWager
I find BetAnySports user interface to be unusable to the point that I just don't want to play there, so no BetAnySports. Sorry.
These books are the 25 sportsbooks that I currently play at. US books that are not available to me in Iowa (Such as WynnBet) are not included, nor are books that are skins or subsidiaries that do not offer substantial pricing differences. I did track Pinnacle separately, and it would come in 2nd on the overall list (just slightly above CRIS), but Pinnacle is only available to US bettors via an agent or similar workaround, and thus are impractical for a vast majority of US bettors. So I decided to exclude them from the main study. Sorry.
The results are as follows:
Percentage of Games with the Best Closing Line:
1) Circa - 20.70%
2) CRIS - 13.92%
3) LowVig - 12.80%
4) Barstool - 6.01%
5) Bet365 - 5.73%
5) FanDuel - 5.73%
7) DraftKings - 5.31%
8) Heritage - 4.90%
9) SuperBook - 4.83%
10) BetRivers - 4.00%
11) BetMGM - 3.85%
12) Caesars - 3.50%
13) BetOnline - 3.00%
14) YouWager - 2.24%
15) BetNow - 1.05%
16) BetFred - 0.63%
16) Bovada - 0.63%
18) Jazz - 0.56%
19) Tipico - 0.42%
20) PointsBet - 0.20%
21) Betway - 0%
22) ClutchBet - 0%
23) DRF - 0%
24) Hard Rock - 0%
25) Q - 0%
Important observations:
- Circa was by far the best book to wager at for all standard bet types in Major League Baseball, but CRIS edges them out slightly in the NFL and LowVig was meaningfully in first for College Football. Circa was second for both the NFL and CFB. Circa was also the best book for the NBA, followed by LowVig. Because there are simply more baseball games than any other sport tracked here, that does give Circa a bit of an advantage in the raw numbers, so keep that in mind based on what sports you bet. FanDuel comes in first for WNBA and UFC. DraftKings and Circa tied for second for the WNBA, while Circa and LowVig tied for second for the UFC. Caesars was a slight winner over LowVig for the best boxing odds. Boxing was the only sport I tracked in which Circa did not appear in the Top 3. DraftKings was king of alternative MMA, followed by FanDuel and then Circa.
- I would strongly suggest not paying for Unabated Odds service. Of all the odds services I used to track, theirs was the most inaccurate, and tended to incorrectly list Best lines for their "Premium" books (Circa and CRIS) from this list. In other words, it seems like they are "shading" things towards their premium books, even when they are not offering the best lines. I don't know if this is intentional or just bugs, but it is annoying. A bulk of the time I spent on this study was fixing errors in the Unabated line scrapes. Had I left them unchecked and went by Unabated numbers alone, Circa would appear as the best book more than 40% of the time and CRIS 30+%. This is simply not the case. Most other odds services I used were consistent, and pretty accurate. If you liked Unabated, their same-day lines are free without an account for a majority of the books they offer.
- This study does not include derivatives, props or exotic markets, however, in my observation, FanDuel, DraftKings and BetOnline offer the best range of props on the most sports, with the most consistency in pricing and availability. Barstool would have been on this list until a month or so ago, when they changed their design, and with it, lost a lot of the alternative prop numbers that they used to have, at least here in Iowa.
----
There's plenty more to factor into this than just this, obviously. Where you are and what's available to you are the most obvious things, but also consider promotions and specifically what you bet.
Personally, I will probably be cutting everything from BetFred down to Q off my personal playing list this season, with the exception of when DRF and BetFred offer cash promotions, which they do more than the others. A bulk of my bankroll will remain with these books: Circa, CRIS, LowVig, FanDuel, DraftKings with the rest spread out between the other books in the top 15 based on when I can snipe a better price.
If you have any specific questions or anything that I might be able to look-up, let me know! Thanks for reading.
My primary reason for doing this was to accurately pinpoint where I should be targeting most of my bets, where I shouldn't, etc. I would think the primary results from this will be unsurprising to most sharp guys.
I initially started this tracking study on 4 July 2022 and concluded it with tonight's MLB Sunday Night baseball game (13 August 2023). I initially set out to conclude my study on the 4th of July this year, but because of the various rules changes in the MLB this year and I actually enjoyed doing this, decided I would continue tracking until I start my college football prep work, which is tomorrow, August 14th.
My resources for this study included cross-checking a variety of different odds services, both paid and free, every day. I started by using simple lookup table commands to pull data into Excel, and then verified this information for any corrections at the end of each evening manually. On days where I wasn't able to check at the end of the night, I'd check at my first opportunity later in the week.
The sports in the study are as follows:
NBA, NFL, NFL Preseason, MLB, CFB, UFC, WNBA, Major Boxing events, and Major MMA events not in the UFC (Bellator, PFL and One). I don't bet hockey so there is no hockey. Sorry.
This study tracks every game from the above leagues since 4 July 2022, excluding non-NFL exhibition games.
The books in the study are as follows:
Barstool, Bet365, BetMGM, BetNow, BetOnline, BetFred, BetRivers, Betway, Bovada, Caesars, Circa, ClutchBet, CRIS, DraftKings, DRF, FanDuel, Hard Rock, Heritage, Jazz, LowVig, PointsBet, Q, SuperBook, Tipico, YouWager
I find BetAnySports user interface to be unusable to the point that I just don't want to play there, so no BetAnySports. Sorry.
These books are the 25 sportsbooks that I currently play at. US books that are not available to me in Iowa (Such as WynnBet) are not included, nor are books that are skins or subsidiaries that do not offer substantial pricing differences. I did track Pinnacle separately, and it would come in 2nd on the overall list (just slightly above CRIS), but Pinnacle is only available to US bettors via an agent or similar workaround, and thus are impractical for a vast majority of US bettors. So I decided to exclude them from the main study. Sorry.
The results are as follows:
Percentage of Games with the Best Closing Line:
1) Circa - 20.70%
2) CRIS - 13.92%
3) LowVig - 12.80%
4) Barstool - 6.01%
5) Bet365 - 5.73%
5) FanDuel - 5.73%
7) DraftKings - 5.31%
8) Heritage - 4.90%
9) SuperBook - 4.83%
10) BetRivers - 4.00%
11) BetMGM - 3.85%
12) Caesars - 3.50%
13) BetOnline - 3.00%
14) YouWager - 2.24%
15) BetNow - 1.05%
16) BetFred - 0.63%
16) Bovada - 0.63%
18) Jazz - 0.56%
19) Tipico - 0.42%
20) PointsBet - 0.20%
21) Betway - 0%
22) ClutchBet - 0%
23) DRF - 0%
24) Hard Rock - 0%
25) Q - 0%
Important observations:
- Circa was by far the best book to wager at for all standard bet types in Major League Baseball, but CRIS edges them out slightly in the NFL and LowVig was meaningfully in first for College Football. Circa was second for both the NFL and CFB. Circa was also the best book for the NBA, followed by LowVig. Because there are simply more baseball games than any other sport tracked here, that does give Circa a bit of an advantage in the raw numbers, so keep that in mind based on what sports you bet. FanDuel comes in first for WNBA and UFC. DraftKings and Circa tied for second for the WNBA, while Circa and LowVig tied for second for the UFC. Caesars was a slight winner over LowVig for the best boxing odds. Boxing was the only sport I tracked in which Circa did not appear in the Top 3. DraftKings was king of alternative MMA, followed by FanDuel and then Circa.
- I would strongly suggest not paying for Unabated Odds service. Of all the odds services I used to track, theirs was the most inaccurate, and tended to incorrectly list Best lines for their "Premium" books (Circa and CRIS) from this list. In other words, it seems like they are "shading" things towards their premium books, even when they are not offering the best lines. I don't know if this is intentional or just bugs, but it is annoying. A bulk of the time I spent on this study was fixing errors in the Unabated line scrapes. Had I left them unchecked and went by Unabated numbers alone, Circa would appear as the best book more than 40% of the time and CRIS 30+%. This is simply not the case. Most other odds services I used were consistent, and pretty accurate. If you liked Unabated, their same-day lines are free without an account for a majority of the books they offer.
- This study does not include derivatives, props or exotic markets, however, in my observation, FanDuel, DraftKings and BetOnline offer the best range of props on the most sports, with the most consistency in pricing and availability. Barstool would have been on this list until a month or so ago, when they changed their design, and with it, lost a lot of the alternative prop numbers that they used to have, at least here in Iowa.
----
There's plenty more to factor into this than just this, obviously. Where you are and what's available to you are the most obvious things, but also consider promotions and specifically what you bet.
Personally, I will probably be cutting everything from BetFred down to Q off my personal playing list this season, with the exception of when DRF and BetFred offer cash promotions, which they do more than the others. A bulk of my bankroll will remain with these books: Circa, CRIS, LowVig, FanDuel, DraftKings with the rest spread out between the other books in the top 15 based on when I can snipe a better price.
If you have any specific questions or anything that I might be able to look-up, let me know! Thanks for reading.
