Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori

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Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori​

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With Israel Adesanya seemingly unstoppable at middleweight, the last two men to lose to him will now face off to see which one deserves to hang around in the top five. Both are young and getting better, so either could vie for a second title shot at some point in the future. That makes this matchup important for the future of the division.

MMA analysts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker are here to give you their best bets for UFC Fight Night.

Prelims start at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

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Middleweight main event: Paulo Costa (+125) vs. Marvin Vettori (-150)​

Tale Of The Tape​

	MARVIN VETTORI	PAULO COSTA
Last fight weight class	Middleweight	Middleweight
Age	28	30
Height	72	73
Reach	74	72
Stance	Southpaw	Orthodox
Analyzed minutes	174	45
Stand-up striking offense
Total knockdown ratio (scored:received)	1:0	4:2
Distance knockdown rate	0.3%	4.0%
Head jab accuracy	32%	44%
Head power accuracy	37%	43%
Total stand-up strike ratio	1.0	0.8
Striking defense
Total head strike defense	75%	62%
Distance knockdown defense ("Chin")	100%	98%
Wrestling and grappling
TD attempts per min standing/clinch	0.41	0.02
Takedown accuracy	47%	0%
Advances per takedown/top control	0.9	N/A
Opponent takedown attempts	33	15
Takedown defense	79%	80%
Share of total ground time in control	83%	28%
Submission attempts per trip to ground	0.24	0.00

There's a big difference between the two fighters stylistically, with Costa preferring to fight at a distance to leverage his highly accurate and powerful hands. He has yet to land a single takedown in the UFC, and with takedown defense of 80%, he has usually forced opponents to play his game. And though his power has helped decide many of his wins, when he doesn't score a knockdown he has sometimes been outworked, and his defense has looked porous at times.

These factors stack up well for Vettori. At 28, he is yet to suffer a knockdown and has shown impressive durability, even in defeat. While he's definitely the bigger threat to take the fight down, even if he doesn't get there, he could take advantage of Costa's loose defense and throw more volume to sway the scores. But more likely, he'll change levels enough to ensure he isn't left chasing a more accurate striker, like he did in his last appearance

Kuhn's pick: Money line play on Vettori

After a year layoff since his TKO loss to Adesanya, Costa returns to the cage to take on Vettori. Costa will be looking to prove to the world that he still belongs at the top of the division. In order for Costa get past Vettori, he will have to do something that no other opponent has been able to do -- knock out Vettori. Costa has a ton of power and can end the fight at any point. However, I don't see the fight going that way. Vettori has never been finished in his MMA career, and I don't believe that changes here. Look for Vettori to come forward and dictate the pace for the five-round fight. Vettori's cardio and output will be his biggest advantage, as Costa tends to slow down and throws only one power punch at a time. Vettori will also have the edge in the wrestling department in which he can fall back on if he decides to put Costa on his back, completely taking away his power. If Vettori keeps up the pace over five rounds, I don't see Costa being able to keep up.

Parkers' pick: Vettori -150 to win; Vettori by decision (+175); Over 4.5 rounds (-110)

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Best bets elsewhere on the card​

Grant Dawson (-340) vs. Ricky Glenn (+270)


Highly regarded as one of the division's top prospects, Dawson looks to continue his impressive UFC run against the dangerous Rick Glenn. Glenn will be looking to derail the Dawson hype train and prove that his last win over Joaquim Silva was just the start of his rise up the division. In order for Glenn to pull off the upset, he will need to stop the relentless takedowns of Dawson and keep the fight standing. However, that is easier said than done. So far, none of Dawson's opponents have been able to stop the wrestling of Dawson, and I don't see Glenn being able to do so either.

Look for Dawson to use his jab and push the pace against Glenn early. Eventually he will get Glenn to the ground where he will do his best work. Glenn has pretty good defense off of his back, so it wouldn't surprise me if Grant doesn't necessarily get the finish. However, his wrestling and top control will be too much for Glenn to handle over the three rounds. By taking Grant to win by decision, we will now get his odds at +130 instead of laying -340 odds.

Parker's pick: Dawson to win by decision (+130)

Heavily favored wrestlers sometimes make a great parlay anchor. Dawson has spent 45% of all UFC fight time on the ground controlling opponents, far more than any fighter competing on the card. That contrasts sharply with Glenn, who has spent most of his time on the mat getting controlled by opponents. Assuming Dawson goes for takedowns early and often, he'll have a huge advantage winning rounds with low risk.

On the feet, it's not that Dawson can't get the edge, but he will have to respect Glenn's power. However, the constant threat of takedowns might stifle some of Glenn's weapons, and his takedown defense is unlikely to hold for long.

Kuhn's pick: Money line play on Dawson or use him in parlays.

Jessica-Rose Clark (-140) vs. Joselyne Edwards (+120)


After losing two fights in a row and then a taking year layoff due to injury, Clark bounced back with a vicious TKO win over Sarah Alpar and will be looking to carry that momentum against Edwards. Both women are very good strikers, but the difference lies in the ground game of Clark. Look for Clark to use her striking to close the distance early and take down Edwards. Once Edwards is on her back, she will just be looking to survive. With no concern of being submitted, look for Clark to take her time and utilize her ground and pound in order to set up a submission. If the submission is not there, I fully expect Clark to hold her position and grind out the rounds.

Parker's pick: Clark -140 to win

Livinha Souza (-125) vs. Randa Markos (+105)

Speaking of effective wrestlers, Markos will be far more affordable in her matchup against Souza. Markos is the busier striker but has also demonstrated strong wrestling throughout a career filled with ranked opponents. Though Souza has a more impressive record, this could be her toughest matchup yet. The superior experience and well-rounded skill set of Markos are enough to back a mild upset.

Kuhn's pick: Markos at even or plus money