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[h=1]Best bets for the NFL conference championship games[/h]
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The top seeds in both the AFC and NFC have reached the conference championship games, leading to two marquee matchups that will determine who faces off in Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta on Feb. 3.
Each game offers numerous potential betting angles, and our experts -- Preston Johnson, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay -- are here to break down both games, sharing their best betting insights and noting the spots you should avoid.
All lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Friday morning. All game times are ET.
[h=2]Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)[/h]
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. (FOX)
Total: 57
Money line: Rams +150; Saints -170
PickCenter consensus: 54 percent picking Los Angeles
Sharp: The key factor is whether the Saints will generate a pass rush on Jared Goff. That is because I expect the Rams will have success running on the Sheldon Rankins-less Saints defense, but unlike the situation in their divisional-round game against the Cowboys, the Rams will need more than just success on the ground to defeat the Saints. Goff has substantial home-road splits, averaging just 7.5 yards per attempt and an 82 passer rating on the road as compared to 8.8 yards per attempt and a 111 passer rating at home. In eight road games this year, Goff has passed for just 10 touchdowns to nine interceptions, as compared to 22 touchdowns to four interceptions when playing at home.
As for the Saints, their offense did not look good against the Eagles last week, and their overall offensive trajectory has tailed off in recent weeks. But how much of that is attributable to playing on the road? The Saints, like the Rams, are much better at home. Between Thanksgiving on Nov. 22 and their last game on Jan. 13, Drew Brees played just one home game. In that game, he recorded a 56 percent success rate, averaged 8.2 yards per attempt and passed for over 325 yards in a 31-point performance against the Steelers. Brees did have a bad game against the Eagles last week, but he'd had three weeks off (including the bye week plus Brees sitting out in Week 17). He did play much worse to close the season, but he only struggled in road games. So, despite recent numbers, don't expect Brees to play poorly against the Rams.
Lean: Saints -3.5
Drew Brees over (-130) / under (+110) two touchdown passes
Clay: Since averaging 4.4 touchdowns per game during Weeks 1-12, the Saints' offense sits at 2.2 TDs per game over their last six outings. That's led to passing touchdown totals of 4, 2, 1, 0, 1 and 1 for Brees during the recent stretch. In fact, Brees has finished at or under two passing touchdowns in nine of 17 games this season. The Saints have been leaning on one of their run-heaviest offenses during the Drew Brees/Sean Payton era, having called pass 54 percent of the time (30th in the NFL) while scoring only 57 percent of their touchdowns through the air (26th).
Meanwhile, 62 percent of touchdowns scored against the Rams' defense have been passes (24th) and offenses are averaging 60 plays per game against them (31st). The Rams have allowed zero or one passing touchdown in six of their past seven games, including two or fewer during 11 of 17 games this season.
Pick: Under two touchdowns (+110)
Johnson: My projections in this game are Saints -3.0 with a total of 54.8. My main takeaway from the Rams-Cowboys matchup was how effectively Los Angeles was able to run the football against a Dallas defense that ranked third against the rush this season. Both Todd Gurley and CJ Anderson rushed for over 100 yards (238 combined on 6.1 yards per carry). Jared Goff didn't make any crucial mistakes, but he wasn't sharp either. I'm intrigued to see if the Rams can run as effectively against a similarly ranked Saints defense (rated slightly worse than Dallas' defense after adjusting for strength of schedule), because the divisional-round version of Goff won't get the job done.
The Saints spotted the Eagles 14 points in their divisional-round matchup, but New Orleans' defense stepped up and didn't allow another point to Philadelphia the rest of the way. The Saints were able to run the ball with moderate success, but it was the connection between Brees and Michael Thomas (12 catches for 171 yards) that ultimately led New Orleans to victory. It seemed like every third down and long, everybody knew where the ball was going, but the Eagles had no answer -- we saw Thomas picking up significant first downs time after time anyway.
The Saints accrued 11 penalties for 84 yards, and Brees threw an opening-play interception, so the final score is actually slightly misleading. The Saints won the yardage battle 420 to 250 and possessed the ball for almost 38 minutes compared to Philadelphia's 22. I'm a little disappointed, actually, because I was hoping for a +4 to back the Rams this weekend, but the market opened +3.5. The total is understandably inflated, considering the final score was 45-35 when these two teams met in the regular season. I would need a move to 58 to have a big enough edge worth betting on, so for the time being, I'm not getting involved in this game.
Pick: Pass; lean on under if total moves to 58
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The top seeds in both the AFC and NFC have reached the conference championship games, leading to two marquee matchups that will determine who faces off in Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta on Feb. 3.
Each game offers numerous potential betting angles, and our experts -- Preston Johnson, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay -- are here to break down both games, sharing their best betting insights and noting the spots you should avoid.
All lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Friday morning. All game times are ET.
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. (FOX)
Total: 57
Money line: Rams +150; Saints -170
PickCenter consensus: 54 percent picking Los Angeles
Sharp: The key factor is whether the Saints will generate a pass rush on Jared Goff. That is because I expect the Rams will have success running on the Sheldon Rankins-less Saints defense, but unlike the situation in their divisional-round game against the Cowboys, the Rams will need more than just success on the ground to defeat the Saints. Goff has substantial home-road splits, averaging just 7.5 yards per attempt and an 82 passer rating on the road as compared to 8.8 yards per attempt and a 111 passer rating at home. In eight road games this year, Goff has passed for just 10 touchdowns to nine interceptions, as compared to 22 touchdowns to four interceptions when playing at home.
As for the Saints, their offense did not look good against the Eagles last week, and their overall offensive trajectory has tailed off in recent weeks. But how much of that is attributable to playing on the road? The Saints, like the Rams, are much better at home. Between Thanksgiving on Nov. 22 and their last game on Jan. 13, Drew Brees played just one home game. In that game, he recorded a 56 percent success rate, averaged 8.2 yards per attempt and passed for over 325 yards in a 31-point performance against the Steelers. Brees did have a bad game against the Eagles last week, but he'd had three weeks off (including the bye week plus Brees sitting out in Week 17). He did play much worse to close the season, but he only struggled in road games. So, despite recent numbers, don't expect Brees to play poorly against the Rams.
Lean: Saints -3.5
Drew Brees over (-130) / under (+110) two touchdown passes
Clay: Since averaging 4.4 touchdowns per game during Weeks 1-12, the Saints' offense sits at 2.2 TDs per game over their last six outings. That's led to passing touchdown totals of 4, 2, 1, 0, 1 and 1 for Brees during the recent stretch. In fact, Brees has finished at or under two passing touchdowns in nine of 17 games this season. The Saints have been leaning on one of their run-heaviest offenses during the Drew Brees/Sean Payton era, having called pass 54 percent of the time (30th in the NFL) while scoring only 57 percent of their touchdowns through the air (26th).
Meanwhile, 62 percent of touchdowns scored against the Rams' defense have been passes (24th) and offenses are averaging 60 plays per game against them (31st). The Rams have allowed zero or one passing touchdown in six of their past seven games, including two or fewer during 11 of 17 games this season.
Pick: Under two touchdowns (+110)
Johnson: My projections in this game are Saints -3.0 with a total of 54.8. My main takeaway from the Rams-Cowboys matchup was how effectively Los Angeles was able to run the football against a Dallas defense that ranked third against the rush this season. Both Todd Gurley and CJ Anderson rushed for over 100 yards (238 combined on 6.1 yards per carry). Jared Goff didn't make any crucial mistakes, but he wasn't sharp either. I'm intrigued to see if the Rams can run as effectively against a similarly ranked Saints defense (rated slightly worse than Dallas' defense after adjusting for strength of schedule), because the divisional-round version of Goff won't get the job done.
The Saints spotted the Eagles 14 points in their divisional-round matchup, but New Orleans' defense stepped up and didn't allow another point to Philadelphia the rest of the way. The Saints were able to run the ball with moderate success, but it was the connection between Brees and Michael Thomas (12 catches for 171 yards) that ultimately led New Orleans to victory. It seemed like every third down and long, everybody knew where the ball was going, but the Eagles had no answer -- we saw Thomas picking up significant first downs time after time anyway.
The Saints accrued 11 penalties for 84 yards, and Brees threw an opening-play interception, so the final score is actually slightly misleading. The Saints won the yardage battle 420 to 250 and possessed the ball for almost 38 minutes compared to Philadelphia's 22. I'm a little disappointed, actually, because I was hoping for a +4 to back the Rams this weekend, but the market opened +3.5. The total is understandably inflated, considering the final score was 45-35 when these two teams met in the regular season. I would need a move to 58 to have a big enough edge worth betting on, so for the time being, I'm not getting involved in this game.
Pick: Pass; lean on under if total moves to 58
